Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs First Round Best Bets

Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs First Round Best Bets

After the play-in tournament wraps up, it’s on to the official first round of the NBA playoffs in the Tuley’s Takes office.
We’re obviously happy that we jumped in on the play-in games as we liked all the underdogs on Tuesday and Wednesday and they went 3-1 ATS. It was nice to be betting on pro basketball games with teams actually giving 100% to try to survive and advance instead of the Tankapalooza and Load Management fiascos of the regular season.

It’s much easier to handicap these games, especially for “dog or pass” bettors like yours truly. Hopefully, the oddsmakers and betting public continue to jack up the point spreads in the first round (we’ve long loved how the NBA gives us quadrupleheaders on this opening Saturday and Sunday), so let’s get right to it while looking for which favorites to fade and which dogs are worth betting (and which ones we should pass)

Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Series odds: Cavaliers -500 / Raptors +400
Game 1 odds: Cavaliers -8, Over/Under 219.5

This is an interesting 4-5 matchup in the lid-lifter on Saturday’s card. The Raptors swept the Cavaliers 3-0 in the regular season (and all by double digits), but those were all before Cleveland traded for James Harden in February. The Cavs are a much different team now and have gone 22-9 SU since Harden arrived, and they are now favored by more than a touchdown. The Game 1 line opened Cavaliers -7 and had been bet up to -8. I understand the reason for the change in power ratings, etc., but I’m pretty sure regular readers will know what I’m going to say next: “the spread has been overadjusted, so I see value on the dog plus the inflated points.” Toronto doesn’t have Cleveland’s star power, but the Raptors do have depth and play defense (ranking No. 5) to give them a shot to contain Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs. No. 1 player. And we all know Harden and Mitchell have put in playoff clunkers before when asked to carry their teams, so Toronto has a great chance to keep these games close, though I’m not confident enough to take a shot on the series price as the Cavaliers should advance. 
 
NBA First Round Best Bets: Raptors as underdogs in any game of the series, including hopefully Game 3 as short home dog (exception would be if they trail 3-0).

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets

Series odds: Nuggets -335 / Timberwolves +275
Game 1 odds: Nuggets -6, Over/Under 231.5

I usually only mention when odds are mispriced with the favorites being inflated, but this is a prime example of me believing that the point spread and the series price are too short, so I have to pass on the dog. Led by superstar Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets are peaking at the right time, entering the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak, but are only favored by 6 points in this 3-6 matchup (compared to the Cavs-Raptors above with an 8-point spread in a 4-5 matchup). The Nuggets are also only -335 in the series when they’re closer to the Thunder and Spurs in the West than the rest of the conference. If only I wasn’t allergic to laying -335.

NBA First Round Best Bets: Pass, except maybe if the Timberwolves are small home underdogs when trailing 0-2.

Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks

Series odds: Knicks -265 / Hawks +225
Game 1 odds: Knicks -5, Over/Under 216.5

There’s a lot I wrote above in the Timberwolves-Nuggets matchup (which was the West’s 3-6 matchup like this in the East) that I could just repeat here. Basically, the odds are too short for me to take the dog again. When I was trying to talk myself into making a case for the Hawks, I noticed that the road team won all three games of the regular-season series, so I thought that might give an edge to Atlanta as the Hawks did go into New York on Jan. 2 and won 111-99, but I still see the Knicks as the superior team as there were two games in Atlanta and they won both. Despite the home loss, the Knicks were a solid 30-10 at Madison Square Garden, so I don’t think I can count on a letdown here. Basically, I like other dogs much better in the other series and have no problem ignoring this series for the most part, except to scout the survivor for the next round.

NBA First Round Best Bets: Hard pass

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Series odds: Rockets -600 / Lakers +450
Game 1 odds: Rockets -5.5, Over/Under 207

The Lakers are the higher seed in this 4-5 matchup, but the Rockets are the series favorite and the Game 1 road chalk due to LA’s key injuries with Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves. In early betting at Circa, Houston was taking 71% of the bets and 97% of the money, driving the line from Rockets -5 5 to -5.5, according to VSiN’s Betting Splits page. I’ll fade that move every time, especially since the Lakers are in “fallen star mode” with backups needing to step up for Doncic and Reeves. I’m not the biggest LeBron James fan (Michael Jordan is the GOAT, after all), but I have no problem backing him as an underdog in a spot like this where the Lakers are basically trying to stay in this seven-game series until Doncis can return. That makes the Lakers attractive at +450 on the series price, especially if we can get a home upset in Game 1 or 2 and hopefully be around 2-2 when Doncic hopefully returns, as their odds would be much lower if that happens. The Lakers won the season series 2-1, including the last two games at Houston, with the Rockets having no answer for Doncic.

NBA First Round Best Bets: Lakers +450 to pull series upset and as underdogs in any game in series (and they’ll be getting even more points on the road, though shorter if/when Doncic returns).

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

Series odds: Celtics -1300 / 76ers +800
Game 1 odds: Celtics -12.5, Over/Under 213.5

While the Timberwolves-Nuggets and Hawks-Knicks series has similarities earlier (and me mostly passing on both), this series has a lot in common with Rockets-Lakers above as the Celtics appear to be overpriced like the Rockets while the 76ers, like the Lakers, are trying to keep this series close for the return of their star player, Joel Embiid (appendectomy on April 9) The 76ers had to win the 7-8 play-in game to set up this matchup and handled the Magic 109-97 with Tyrese Maxey picking up the slack for their fallen star. But the 76ers played most of the season with Embiid (went 21-23). The season series was split 2-2 with the 76ers winning two of the three that were decided by a total of four points, but obviously, oddsmakers are looking at the Celtics’ 114-98 win by 16 points in the last meeting on March 1 in setting this line as the 76ers were also without Embiid in that game. However, I’ll argue the game wasn’t as lopsided as the final score indicates, as the 76ers actually led by 10 points in the first half (everyone makes a run in the NBA, right?). I’ll count on the 76ers sticking around in these playoff games, especially since the Celtics aren’t as strong or as deep as they were in their championship run two years ago.

NBA First Round Best Bets: flier on 76ers +800 to win series and as underdogs in any game of series, especially at home and when Embiid returns

Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs

Series odds: Spurs -2150 / Blazers +1200
Game 1 odds: Spurs -11, Over/Under 222.5

The Blazers knocked off the Suns in the West’s 7-8 play-in game to set up this matchup. I was glad to be on them as I felt they were the better team than the Suns. This is a much tougher spot with the Spurs ranking No. 3 in both adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating. Portland can step it up on defense, and the Spurs could have an off night here or there, but I can’t see myself backing the Blazers in a lot of games. I’ll pass on Game 1 on the assumption that it will be a San Antonio blowout and come back on the Blazers in Game 2 in a zig-zag spot. I’m more likely to back the Blazers as home underdogs, but again plan to cherry-pick my spots. If they’re down 2-0 (but hopefully covering Game 2 on the road), I’d definitely take them plus any points at home in Game 3.

NBA first round Best Bets: Pass on Game 1, probably taking Blazers in Games 2 and 3.

Note: I’ll add my takes on the Warriors/Suns winner vs. Oklahoma City Thunder and Hornets/Magic winner vs. Detroit Pistons if something jumps out at me when the series prices/Game 1 lines are posted after Friday night’s games to set the No. 8 seeds.

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