MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, May 3.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

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1:35 PM Eastern

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals

Nationals starting pitcher Zack Littell has given up loads of hard contact this season, posting a 7.85 ERA and 9.06 fielding independent, allowing 13 home runs in his 28 2/3 innings pitched—a rate of 4.1 home runs per nine innings—while Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick has pitched to a lot of contact as well with just 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings, but has a solid 2.57 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed as he prepares to face a Nationals offense that is fourth in scoring with 5.3 runs per game this season.

Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 +130 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -1.5 -101 and Total 9.6

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees

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The Orioles send Trey Gibson to the mound for his first career start at the MLB level. At the AAA level this season, he has a 4.01 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings, but has been at his best recently with two earned runs or fewer allowed in each of his past four starts, while Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried owns a 2.09 ERA and 2.74 fielding independent this season with only one home run allowed in his eight starts and faces an Orioles lineup that is 23rd in road run production with just over 3.9 runs per game.

Pick: Orioles vs. Yankees Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2

1:40 PM Eastern

San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Rays starting pitcher Steven Matz has slipped a little bit from his renaissance 2025 season when he had a 3.05 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 1.3 walks per nine innings, now supplying a 4.31 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings, but should benefit from facing a Giants lineup that entered the weekend last in scoring with 3.25 runs per game, while Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has had struggles to begin the season, posting a 5.87 ERA with 1.8 home runs and five walks per nine innings after last season he had a 2.18 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings with the Texas Rangers.

Pick: Rays Moneyline -118 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -148 and Total 7.4

4:05 PM Eastern

Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics

Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has been exceptional to begin 2026, posting a 1.73 ERA with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and just one home run allowed in his six starts this season, while Athletics starting pitcher Aaron Civale has a solid 3.23 ERA, but owns a 3.72 fielding independent while pitching to lots of contact with only seven strikeouts per nine innings. While the Guardians entered the weekend 19th in bullpen ERA at 4.23, they’ve lowered it in the past two weeks as they try to get back to last season’s form when the team was third in bullpen ERA.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -132

4:10 PM Eastern

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners

Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo has struggled this season with a 6.35 ERA, though his 4.51 fielding independent points toward positivity, and throughout his time with the Mariners he has pitched much better at home than away, supplying a 2.60 ERA at home last season compared to a 4.71 ERA on the road, while Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic has seen his 2.55 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings from 2025 rise to a 3.74 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed this season, but should benefit from playing in a pitcher-friendly environment. The Mariners are also facing a Royals lineup that entered the weekend last in road scoring with under 2.9 runs per game.

Pick: Royals vs. Mariners Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4

Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres

White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay has been shaky this season with a 6.13 ERA, allowing 1.4 home runs and five walks per nine innings, but he should benefit from being in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league in regard to its factors, while Padres starting pitcher has improved greatly from a season ago, lowering his ERA to 2.94 with 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings after getting only 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season, and faces a White Sox lineup that entered the weekend 19th in scoring with 4.3 runs per game and 29th in batting average at .226.

Pick: White Sox vs. Padres Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9

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