NHL Predictions and Best Bets:

Here are tonight’s NHL predictions and best bets for game seven between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning.

Montreal Canadiens (+135) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-165)

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Total 5.5 (Under, -140)
Series tied at 3

6 p.m. ET

It doesn’t get much better than game seven in any sport. This series has been the classic zigzag, with neither team winning consecutive games in the series. If the trend continues, game seven goes to Montreal. Outside of game one (4-3 Montreal in OT), this has been an Under series. Each of the last five games has had a combined five goals or fewer. All six games have been decided by one goal, with three of the six games going to overtime, including Tampa’s 1-0 game six win. Courtesy @chrismeaney, the series has been tied or within one goal for all but 5:37. There has been at most a one-goal margin for 98.5% of the playing time through the first five games (379:45 of 385:22). 

For the Lightning, this is the seventh time they have played a game seven in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Tampa has won four of the previous six, three of those wins were by shutout, and all six games have combined for four goals or fewer. The Habs last played a game seven in the 2021 playoffs when they defeated the Maple Leafs 3-1, completing the series comeback from down three games to one. 

For Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, this will be his fifth game seven in Stanley Cup Playoff history. He is 2-2, with a 1.51 goals-against average and one shutout. This is also the fifth game seven in the career of Nikita Kucherov, who is still in search of his first point in these winner-take-all games. 

Nick Paul scored twice in his only game seven, and Oliver Bjorkstrand scored three goals in his previous two game sevens. Corey Perry is 5-6 in his previous 11 deciding games and has four goals and six points in those contests. One of those goals came as a member of the Montreal Canadiens when they defeated the Maple Leafs in the 2021 playoffs. The Habs Brendan Gallagher scored one of the goals in that game (Tyler Toffoli the other) and is the only player on the Canadiens current roster who has scored a goal in a game seven. 

A couple of player props. Going to come back with Nikita Kucherov and Darryn Raddysh of the Lightning for at least one shot on goal in the first period. Raddysh and Kucherov have had at least one shot on goal in the first period in five of the six games. Friday, we got this parlay at plus money, but after it cashed within the first five minutes of game six, we are paying a “tax” in game seven. I will also parlay the two for 4+ shots on goal for the full game. Raddysh has had four shots on goal or more in four of the six games (6 shots on goal three times) and Kucherov has had five shots on goal or more in four of the six games.

NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Under 5.5 (-140) – 5 units
Under 4.5 (+185) – 1 unit
Under 3.5 (+300) – ½ unit
Kucherov/Raddysh 1+ shots on goal – 1stperiod – 3 units
Kucherov/Raddysh 4+ shots on goal (+168) – 1.5 units

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