MLB Picks Today:

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, June 10.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

Our brand new Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.

1:10 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick has put together a nice season with a 2.40 ERA, 9.4 strikeouts, and 2.6 walks per nine innings. While he has to face a Yankees lineup that ranks fifth in the league in scoring with 5.1 runs per game, New York is now without Aaron Judge. The Yankees counter with Carlos Rodón, who owns a solid 2.88 ERA in his five starts since returning from the injured list but has dealt with command issues, allowing 5.8 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline -112

Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -129

3:45 PM Eastern

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants

Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray has been significantly better at home than on the road this season. He owns a 4.12 ERA and 5.34 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings overall, but those numbers improve to a 2.78 ERA with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings at home compared to a 5.35 ERA with 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.

Nationals starting pitcher Foster Griffin has a 3.63 ERA with a higher 4.64 fielding independent and 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he should benefit from pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. The Giants rank 29th in home runs per at-bat at home and 27th in scoring at home with 3.7 runs per game.

Pick: Nationals vs. Giants Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.1

4:10 PM Eastern

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres

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Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has had a rough season, posting a 5.89 ERA and 6.80 fielding independent with 2.8 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he faces a Padres offense that ranks last in the league in scoring with 3.8 runs per game overall and just 3.4 runs per game at home.

Padres starting pitcher Michael King owns a 3.41 ERA with one home run allowed per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.19.

Pick: Reds vs. Padres Under 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 7.3

6:40 PM Eastern

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins

Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto has pitched only five innings at the MLB level this season, allowing six runs over those innings after posting a 5.67 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.2 walks allowed per nine innings in 2025.

Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson has had his own struggles, posting a 4.60 ERA with a 5.24 fielding independent. He has allowed 1.9 home runs per nine innings while recording only 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but he is supported by a lineup that ranks 11th in road scoring with 4.5 runs per game.

Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Over 8 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 8.7

7:07 PM Eastern

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer is making his first start since April 24 after being a human piñata to begin the season. He posted a 9.64 ERA while allowing 3.4 home runs per nine innings with 4.8 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 22nd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game.

Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo has pitched better than his 4.56 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.41 fielding independent with one home run allowed per nine innings and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline -134

Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -149

7:10 PM Eastern

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

The Cardinals offense has waned recently, ranking 26th in scoring since May 1 with just over 3.8 runs per game. They face Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott, who owns a 2.50 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts and just 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks sixth in ERA at 3.24.

Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante should benefit from facing a Mets lineup that ranks 23rd in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, but he has struggled to a 3.96 ERA and 4.42 fielding independent with 7.2 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings.

Pick: Mets Moneyline -129 and Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Mets -148 and Total 7.8

7:40 PM Eastern

Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals

Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore owns a 4.23 ERA this season, but his 3.62 fielding independent points toward positive regression. He has recorded 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks third in ERA at 3.16.

While the wind will be blowing out in this game, the Rangers face a Royals offense that ranks 28th in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. The Rangers rank 26th in run production with just over four runs per game and face Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo, who owns a 3.91 ERA but a lower 3.61 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Rangers Moneyline -115 and Under 9.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -124 and Total 8.3

9:05 PM Eastern

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics

While the opening game in Las Vegas between these two teams was explosive, ending 15-14 and featuring 11 home runs, that result is likely leading to an overcorrection on the total for this game despite some questionable starting pitching.

Athletics starting pitcher Jack Perkins owns a 6.19 ERA, but his 2.89 fielding independent points toward much better performance. He has allowed just 0.6 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings while recording 11 strikeouts per nine innings.

The Brewers are expected to use Brandon Sproat in some capacity. He owns a 6.17 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 4.8 walks allowed per nine innings but will likely have a quick hook. He is supported by a Brewers bullpen that entered Tuesday ranked seventh in the league with a 3.36 ERA.

Pick: Brewers vs. Athletics Under 14.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: 12.8

9:38 PM Eastern

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels

Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert has put together a solid season with a 3.55 ERA while allowing only 0.5 home runs per nine innings, though his 4.4 walks per nine innings are a concern. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.94.

The Angels rank 26th in bullpen ERA at 4.90 and send Reid Detmers to the mound. Detmers has pitched much better than his 4.26 ERA would suggest, posting a 2.92 fielding independent to go along with 10.7 strikeouts and only 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings.

Pick: Angels Moneyline -119 and Under 8.5 Runs

Greg’s Handicap: Angels -135 and Total 8.1

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