Game: Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Date: November 3rd at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

Last week’s Monday Night Football game was certainly a letdown, and while this week’s matchup features two teams below .500, it’s a fairly even pairing that could provide some fun betting opportunities. This week, the 2-5 Arizona Cardinals travel to Dallas to face the 3-4-1 Cowboys. The Cardinals have struggled quite a bit since opening the season 2-0, having trouble closing games as they’ve now lost six straight. They haven’t been great on either side of the ball, ranking 22nd in total yards per game (310.3) and 19th in points per game (21.9) on offense. Defensively, they’re slightly better, ranking 19th in yards allowed per game (335.7) and 13th in points allowed per game (22). Dallas, on the other hand, has had quite the up-and-down season, primarily due to how poorly the defense has played. The Cowboys’ offense has been one of the best in the NFL, ranking 2nd in both yards per game (384.1) and points per game (30.8). The defense has been the polar opposite, sitting 31st in both yards allowed per game (404.6) and points allowed per game (31.3). This game certainly has the makings of a shootout and should come down to the very end.

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Betting Overview

When this matchup opened, we saw Dallas at -1.5, but things have since moved a bit further in their favor, as they’re now -3 or -3.5 depending on the book. The moneyline remains relatively tight, with the best value for Arizona currently at +150 and -170 for Dallas. The total has also jumped significantly, opening at 47.5 and now sitting between 52.5 and 53.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: With these two coaching staffs still being relatively young, there isn’t a huge advantage for either side. Dallas has been slightly more consistent, so if there’s an edge, it would be in their favor, as I’d have a bit more faith in them making the right call late in the game.

DLs vs. OLs: From last season to now, the Cowboys’ offensive line has really turned things around, becoming one of the best fronts in the NFL. Arizona isn’t particularly strong on either side of the line, and the Cowboys’ defensive line hasn’t been very effective. Since Dallas has the better offensive line by a long shot, they hold the advantage up front.

QBs: In spite of Dallas’s poor defensive play, Dak Prescott has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. We also won’t be seeing Kyler Murray this week due to a foot injury, with Jacoby Brissett starting in his place—who obviously doesn’t quite compare to Dak.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Neither of these teams is strong in the linebacker room, but Dallas has a great running back in Javonte Williams, and Arizona features an elite tight end in Trey McBride. This matchup is very close, but I’d slightly lean toward Arizona here, given how effective McBride can be.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This is a tough battle to evaluate, considering how poor the Cowboys’ secondary has been. Dallas’s receiving corps is clearly stronger than Arizona’s, but with the injuries in the secondary and their overall struggles, I lean slightly in favor of Arizona here.

Betting Trends

Arizona enters this matchup with a positive ATS record at 4-3. They’ve also been very solid on the road, going 3-0 ATS, and are 3-2 in conference play. Overs have been slightly more favorable, hitting in 4 of 7 games, though the under has prevailed in road contests, hitting in 2 of 3.

The Cowboys sit at an even 4-4 ATS this season, with a 2-1 mark at home and a 1-1 record as a home favorite. As expected, we’ve seen plenty of overs in Dallas games, with the over hitting in 6 of 8 overall, every home game, and 4 of 6 NFC matchups.

Final Thoughts

While the Cardinals have been a strong ATS team on the road this season, I think the tide will turn in this game. Dallas has been very good this year when it comes to bouncing back after a loss, and I expect that trend to continue here. Given the defensive injuries on both sides, I do think we’ll see the over hit, even with how high it currently sits at 52.5 or 53.5.