Game: Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs

Date: October 27th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

After several weeks of Monday Night Football doubleheaders, we finally get a standalone game between the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing last year’s Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury.

The Commanders come into this game underperforming relative to preseason expectations, sitting at 3-4 on the season after losing two straight. They’ve been fairly solid offensively, ranking 13th in yards per game (345) and 9th in points per game (25.7). Defense has been the issue, as they rank 27th in yards allowed per game (364.3) and 21st in points allowed per game (24.3).

The home team, the Kansas City Chiefs, have seemingly flipped the script after a relatively slow start. Following two straight wins, Kansas City is now above .500 with a 4-3 record. Offensively, they’ve been among the league’s best, ranking 5th in yards per game (370.6) and 6th in points per game (26.6). Defensively, they’ve been sharp as well, ranking 5th in yards allowed per game (280.3) and 3rd in points allowed per game (17.7).

This game certainly has the potential to be lopsided in favor of the Chiefs, but that’s the beauty of the NFL — you never know which team will show up on any given night. The talent gap between teams is often razor thin, so anything can happen. Let’s dive deeper into this one and see if the Commanders really have a chance.

Embed from Getty Images

Weather

Monday night in Kansas City should bring fairly mild conditions, with temperatures in the high 50s and only about a 7% chance of rain throughout the game. Winds could play a minor role, averaging around 7 mph with gusts up to 16 mph.

Betting Overview

When this one opened, the margins were very tight, with the Chiefs listed as -3.5-point favorites. However, after the news about Jayden Daniels, Kansas City has moved to around -10.5 and -11.5 at most books. We’ve also seen major movement on the moneyline, as Washington was around +160 but can now be found closer to +550. Kansas City opened near -200, and the best number available now is around -750. The total has taken a slight dip as well, moving from 48.5 down to 47.5 or 48, depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: As impressive as Dan Quinn, Kliff Kingsbury, and Joe Whitt Jr. have been with this team dating back to last season, they’ve been stagnant at times on offense, and the defense has struggled. On the other side, you have Andy Reid, who’s been doing this for a long time, alongside Matt Nagy and Steve Spagnuolo, who’ve both been impressive in their respective roles. You have to give the edge to the Chiefs in the coaching department.

DLs vs. OLs: We should see a strong push from both offensive lines in this one. The Chiefs’ defensive line has not impressed to this point in the season, while the Commanders have been slightly above average. On the offensive side, both units rank among the best in the NFL, but given Kansas City’s struggles up front defensively, I’d give the slight edge to Washington.

QBs: Even if the Commanders had Jayden Daniels available, he’d be facing the most decorated quarterback of this generation. Patrick Mahomes—while not putting up elite numbers last season—appears to have his offense clicking on all cylinders once again.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Neither team has been dominant in the running back or tight end departments, but both are loaded at linebacker. If I had to give a slight edge, it would go to Kansas City, though the margin is very narrow.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Washington probably has the deeper wide receiver room, and with Terry McLaurin expected to play, that group looks even stronger. Still, Kansas City’s secondary is far superior to Washington’s, giving them the advantage in this matchup.

Betting Trends

Washington’s ATS record mirrors their SU record at 3-4. They haven’t been very good on the road this season, going 1-3 ATS, with all four being games in which they were underdogs. The Commanders have actually been solid against AFC teams, posting a 2-0 ATS record in those matchups. The over/under has split evenly at 3-3 with one push. On the road, the total has also split 2-2, and it’s 1-1 in non-conference games.

Kansas City also has identical ATS and SU marks at 4-3. They’re currently 3-1 ATS at home, 2-0 as home favorites, and 2-1 in non-conference play. The under has been slightly more favorable, hitting in 4 of 7 games. At home, the under has cashed in 3 of 4, in both games as a home favorite, and in all 3 non-conference matchups.

Final Thoughts

This game certainly looked a lot more exciting back in the preseason, but even before Daniels went down, the Chiefs appeared to be the far better team. They’re sound on both sides of the ball, whereas the Commanders haven’t really inspired confidence on either. A 10.5 to 11.5-point spread is definitely large for an NFL game, but I’d slightly lean toward the Chiefs to cover. As for the total, I’d lean toward the under, though I’d probably stay away given the uncertainty with Marcus Mariota.