Go Bowling at The Glen Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:

For the third time this season, our projected winner finished as runner-up. This time it was Denny Hamlin at last weekend’s race in Texas. Chase Elliott brought home the checkered flag at +1400 odds, a nice underdog winner for what has become an underdog track. This week, we move on to Watkins Glen, which gets its annual race a lot earlier than usual. Typically, the Glen runs in August. We will see if cooler temperatures than usual affect the race on Sunday. That said, not surprisingly, road-course ace Shane Van Gisbergen is a heavy favorite, both at DraftKings (+125) and in our initial simulation. His average finish on our simulation runs is 3.4, at least 3.8 spots better than any other driver.

This is only our second road course race of the young season. If you recall, SVG dominated the road course action in 2025. However, Tyler Reddick beat him in Austin in early March in our only other road race. Is SVG beatable again? Does +125 ever make sense in a NASCAR race with 38 drivers? Those are the questions that will be answered on Sunday in the Go Bowling at The Glen. 

Watkins Glen gets a B- grade on our handicap-ability scale, making it the best graded track we’ve seen in about a month. Still, I have found that projecting the field up front at road courses like the Glen is a lot easier than projecting the middle of the field. Road courses are tight racing, and there is a lot of beating and banging, particularly in restarts and at key turns through the track known as prominent passing spots. Hence, drivers not lucky enough to be in the front of the pack can and do get bunched up and often wind up in trouble. 

Starting position is critical at Watkins Glen, so I would 100 percent advise waiting until the starting lineup is set on Saturday. It is the most important simulation factor by a wide margin. How important has the starting spot been? Well, 13 of the last 15 winners started in the top 6. Eight of those 13 were top 3. SVG won from the No. 2 starting spot a year ago. Only three active drivers own multiple wins at the Glen: two each from Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch. 

Before digging into what to look for statistically and the drivers who have been best at Watkins Glen for Sunday, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Texas, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 11 races. 

Initial Texas simulation winner: loser Logano 34th (-1 units) – NOW -2 units for the season

Final Texas simulation winner: loser Hamlin second (-1 units) – NOW +25.5 units for the season

Final Texas simulation top 2 drivers To win: two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +24.8 units for the season 

Final simulation top 3 Texas projections: one winner, two losers, Hamlin +150 – total return -0.5 unit – NOW +1.45 units for the season

Final simulation top 5 Texas projections: two winners, three losers, Hamlin -140, Reddick -140 – total return -1.25 units – Now +4.3 units for the season

Final simulation top 10 Texas projections: six winners (Hamlin, Reddick, Byron, Buescher, Hocevar, Wallace), four losers, – total return +0.3 units – Now +4.55 units for the season 

We are still recovering from the losses at Talladega two weeks ago, but this past week at Texas kept us afloat. Hopefully, getting back into some higher graded handicap-ability tracks will help restore our profits to what they were before ’Dega.

Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…

My personal top 5 Texas predictions: two winners, three losers – Hamlin -140, Buescher +160 – total return -1.05 units – Now -12.6 units for the season

Top Texas long shots to win: seven losers –total return -4 units – Now +20 units for the season

Favorites to struggle at Texas: Logano (34th), Bowman (3rd), Elliott (1st), Blaney (10th) – Now 31 for 41 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10. Texas was my worst performance of the year in this regard, hence much of the reason I applied a D- grade going in. 

Looking ahead to Watkins Glen now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the races over the last three seasons at this 3.4-mile, 11-turn road course. In general, these road courses are more about track position and driving skill than most other track layouts.  Again, of the simulation factors, the most critical factor has been starting spot. There is practice and qualifying on Saturday, so wait until then to make sure nothing changes too much. That said, with what is currently a one-car breakaway with SVG at the top, I’d be surprised to see someone else wind up on top of the final projections. Here are the stats for the last three races at Watkins Glen for all active drivers who have raced here, with three different winners in that span. 

Average STARTING POSITION last three races at Watkins Glen
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 2.5
2. Michael McDowell: 6.33
3. William Byron: 7.67
4. Kyle Busch: 9
5. Ross Chastain: 9
…
33. John Hunter Nemechek: 33
34. Ty Dillon: 34.5
35. Cody Ware: 37
36. Josh Bilicki: 37.5
37. Katherine Legge: 38

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Average PRACTICE SPEED last three races at Watkins Glen
1. Kyle Larson: 4
2. Shane Van Gisbergen: 5
3. Michael McDowell: 7.33
4. Chris Buescher: 8.33
5. Ross Chastain: 11.33
6. William Byron: 11.33
7. Ty Gibbs: 11.33
…
32. Brad Keselowski: 29
33. Ryan Preece: 32
34. John Hunter Nemechek: 32
35. Cody Ware: 37
36. Josh Bilicki: 38
37. Katherine Legge: 38

Average RUNNING POSITION last three races at Watkins Glen
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 5
2. William Byron: 8.67
3. Ross Chastain: 11
4. Chris Buescher: 11.33
5. Christopher Bell: 11.67
…
33. Cody Ware: 29
34. Ty Dillon: 30.5
35. Cole Custer: 31.5
36. Josh Bilicki: 31.5
37. Katherine Legge: 32

Average LAPS LED last three races at Watkins Glen
1. William Byron: 22
2. Shane Van Gisbergen: 19.5
3. Ross Chastain: 17
4. Ryan Blaney: 11.67
5. Chris Buescher: 8
6. Michael McDowell: 8
…
16. Christopher Bell: 0
17. Ty Gibbs: 0
18. Austin Cindric: 0
19. Tyler Reddick: 0
20. Darrell Wallace: 0
21. Chase Elliott: 0
22. Daniel Suarez: 0
23. Austin Dillon: 0
24. Noah Gragson: 0
25. Zane Smith: 0
26. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
27. Riley Herbst: 0
28. Kyle Larson: 0
29. Josh Berry: 0
30. Todd Gilliland: 0
31. Erik Jones: 0
32. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
33. Cody Ware: 0
34. Ty Dillon: 0
35. Cole Custer: 0
36. Josh Bilicki: 0
37. Katherine Legge: 0 

Average DRIVER RATING last three races at Watkins Glen
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 133.8
2. William Byron: 109.4
3. Chris Buescher: 103.17
4. Ross Chastain: 101.7
5. Christopher Bell: 97.07
6. Michael McDowell: 93.8
…
32. Ricky Stenhouse: 48.07
33. Ty Dillon: 38.95
34. Cody Ware: 37
35. Cole Custer: 32.2
36. Katherine Legge: 29.7
37. Josh Bilicki: 29

Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last three races at Watkins Glen
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 84
2. William Byron: 72.33
3. Christopher Bell: 69
4. Michael McDowell: 67
5. Chris Buescher: 62
6. Joey Logano: 62
…
33. Cody Ware: 10
34. Ty Dillon: 2
35. Cole Custer: 1.5
36. Katherine Legge: 0
37. Josh Bilicki: 0

Best AVERAGE FINISH last three races at Watkins Glen
1. Shane Van Gisbergen: 1.5
2. Chris Buescher: 3.67
3. Christopher Bell: 6.33
4. Carson Hocevar: 10.5
5. Ross Chastain: 10.67
6. Zane Smith: 11
…
33. Josh Berry: 30
34. Cole Custer: 31
35. Ty Dillon: 32
36. Josh Bilicki: 32
37. Katherine Legge: 36

With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Watkins Glen, in order, are SVG, Byron, McDowell, Buescher, Chastain. In terms of Track Designation ratings (road courses), the top guys are SVG, Bell, Blaney, Reddick, Briscoe. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Reddick, Hamlin, Larson, Byron. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now in the NASCAR HUB on VSiN.com. 

The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after qualifying, which is set for 1 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit in the Sunday morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:

Top 5: SVG, Blaney, Buescher, Bell, Larson

Top underdogs to consider (+1400 or higher): Byron, Larson, Buescher, Blaney, McDowell

Favorites to struggle: Hamlin, Elliott, Bowman, Wallace, Keselowski 

The 100-lap event at the Glen is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 10.

Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds and much, much more.

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