Wurth 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:

Betting preview for NASCAR’s Wurth 400 at Texas

By Steve Makinen

As feared, Sunday’s race at Talladega was a wild one, highlighted by a single crash that affected 26 cars, including our projected winner, Bubba Wallace, who was leading at the time. Several other top drivers were also eliminated as contenders at that point. Hence, Talladega warranted its handicap-ability grade of F+. This weekend, we move on to Texas, where things have been almost as crazy. Over the last three races at Texas, 28 drivers failed to finish, an average of 9.3 per race. In comparison, only eight failed to finish at Talladega on Sunday. Thus, Texas earns a handicap-ability grade of D-, so finding good wagers using stat models could again prove difficult. At this point, Kyle Larson projects as a somewhat heavy favorite for the Wurth 400, finishing with an average rating of at least 10 more than anyone else. Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs and Bubba Wallace round out the top 5.

For as much as Talladega wound up being our worst race to date for the season, I knew it had the potential to get ugly, and hopefully you heeded my words of caution in Sunday morning’s VSiN email newsletter, as I knew that qualifying being rained out would also have an impact on the teams’ abilities to hook up with one another for drafting purposes. Typically, when drivers from several teams form drafting lines, even at the front of the field, it can wind up getting messy.

However, the way things get messy at Texas isn’t from drafting. It’s typically that the cars are going so fast on such a tight track that a single car wreck can quickly turn into a multi-car incident. The name of the game at Texas is speed. In fact, typically, it’s only Texas and Michigan that will produce pole-winning speeds in excess of 190 mph in qualifying. The race speeds aren’t far behind. Of course, whenever speed is such a huge factor, handling also follows suit. The teams that show up fastest with the best handling cars usually run up front. That said, neither qualifying nor practice has proven all that important here lately, and the teams running up front aren’t consistent, as we’ve seen nine different winners in the last nine Texas races.

Before digging into what to look for statistically and the drivers that have been best at Texas, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Talladega, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 10 races.

Initial Talladega simulation winner: loser Logano 39th (-1 units) – NOW -1 units for the season

Final Talladega simulation winner: loser Wallace 36th (-1 units) – NOW +26.5 units for the season

Final Talladega simulation top 2 drivers to win: two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +26.8 units for the season

Final simulation top 3 Talladega projections: three losers, total return -3 units – NOW +1.95 units for the season

Final simulation top 5 Talladega projections: five losers, – total return -5 units – Now +5.55 units for the season

Final simulation top 10 Talladega projections: two winners (Elliott, Buescher), eight losers, – total return -9.2 units – Now +4.25 units for the season

These losses last week really took a bite out of our season profits, but hopefully, like me, you treaded lightly, recognizing the randomness of a lot of what happens at Talladega.

Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…

My personal top 5 Talladega predictions: five losers – total return -5 units – Now -11.55 units for the season

Top Talladega long shots to win: seven losers –total return -7 units – Now +24 units for the season

Favorites to struggle at Talladega: Larson (40th), Reddick (14th), Hamlin (15th), Bell (17th), Blaney (37th) – Now 30 for 37 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!

Unfortunately, my ability to peg the guys that might struggle was the highlight of my Talladega race handicapping. If you’re wondering why I picked so many underdogs as potential winners (seven), I will do that for races I think could get crazy.

Looking ahead to Texas now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the races over the last three seasons that have been run at this 1.5-mile fast speedway. As I mentioned earlier, these tracks are all about speed and handling. Of the simulation factors, the two most critical factors have been how drivers have run recently at Texas and at tracks like Texas (Charlotte). There is practice and qualifying on Saturday morning, but it hasn’t been of ultimate significance. That said, with what is currently a one-car breakaway with Larson at the top, I’d be surprised to see someone else wind up on top of the final projections. Here are the stats for the last three races at Texas for all active drivers who have raced here, with three different winners in that span.

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Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Texas
1. Ty Gibbs: 4
2. Kyle Larson: 5.3
3. Darrell Wallace: 6.7
4. AJ Allmendinger: 8
5. William Byron: 8.7
…
32. Ricky Stenhouse: 29.7
33. Todd Gilliland: 32
34. Cody Ware: 36
35. Shane Van Gisbergen: 37
36. Chad Finchum: 38

Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Texas
1. Kyle Larson: 8.7
2. Tyler Reddick: 9
3. William Byron: 10.7
4. Chris Buescher: 12.3
5. Chase Elliott: 12.3
…
32. Josh Berry: 25.5
33. Cole Custer: 27
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 28
35. Cody Ware: 32
36. Chad Finchum: 36

Total LAPS LED last four races at Texas
1. Kyle Larson: 266
2. Darrell Wallace: 116
3. Tyler Reddick: 74
4. Austin Cindric: 61
5. Josh Berry: 41
…
23. Daniel Suarez: 0
24. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
25. Zane Smith: 0
26. Chase Briscoe: 0
27. Brad Keselowski: 0
28. Ryan Preece: 0
29. Kyle Busch: 0
30. Austin Dillon: 0
31. Noah Gragson: 0
32. Riley Herbst: 0
33. Cole Custer: 0
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
35. Cody Ware: 0
36. Chad Finchum: 0

Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Texas
1. Kyle Larson: 117.2
2. William Byron: 105.8
3. Tyler Reddick: 101.9
4. Darrell Wallace: 98.6
5. Chase Elliott: 90.1
…
32. Todd Gilliland: 46.2
33. Cole Custer: 43.5
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 39
35. Cody Ware: 30.8
36. Chad Finchum: 24.2

Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Texas
1. Tyler Reddick: 218.7
2. Kyle Larson: 210.3
3. William Byron: 200
4. Darrell Wallace: 196.7
5. Denny Hamlin: 179
…
32. Zane Smith: 36.7
33. Cole Custer: 2
34. Cody Ware: 2
35. Shane Van Gisbergen: 1
36. Chad Finchum: 0

Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Texas
1. William Byron: 5.7
2. Daniel Suarez: 7.7
3. Chase Elliott: 9.3
4. Christopher Bell: 10
5. Joey Logano: 11
….
32. Alex Bowman: 28
33. Cody Ware: 30
34. AJ Allmendinger: 32.5
35. Josh Berry: 34
36. Chad Finchum: 37

Total LAPS FINISHED last four races at Texas
1. Tyler Reddick: 814
2. William Byron: 814
3. Chris Buescher: 814
4. Chase Elliott: 814
5. Joey Logano: 814
6. Christopher Bell: 814
7. Daniel Suarez: 814
8. Ricky Stenhouse: 814
9. Zane Smith: 814
10. Ty Dillon: 814
…
32. Riley Herbst: 271
33. Cole Custer: 271
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 271
35. Cody Ware: 237
36. Chad Finchum: 167

With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Texas, in order, are Larson, Byron, Gibbs, Reddick and Keselowski. In terms of Track Designation ratings, the top guys are Wallace, Larson, Blaney, Briscoe and Reddick. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Hamlin, Reddick, Larson and Bell. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now at VSiN.com on the NASCAR HUB.

The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after qualifying, which is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit in the Sunday morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following:

Top 5: Larson, Hamlin, Reddick, Blaney, Wallace

Top underdogs to consider: Gibbs, Briscoe, Keselowski, Chastain, Hocevar

Favorites to struggle: Logano, Elliott, Bowman

The 267-lap event at Texas is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 3.

Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.

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