Game: NC State Wolfpack at Pitt Panthers

Date: October 25th at 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

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Following NC State’s bye week last weekend, the Wolfpack will be back on the road, this time in Pittsburgh. There isn’t a ton of history between these programs, but they’ve met 11 times, with each team winning five games and one ending in a tie. That means this Saturday, one program will finally take a one-game edge in the all-time series.

NC State enters at 4-3 on the season (1-2 ACC) and is looking to reach .500 in conference play. The Wolfpack rank 63rd nationally in total offense (385.3 yards per game) and 73rd in scoring offense (25.7 points per game). Defensively, they’ve struggled, ranking 103rd in total defense (424.5 yards allowed per game) and 91st in scoring defense (29.3 points allowed per game).

Pitt comes into this matchup 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the ACC. The Panthers have shown strong balance, ranking 48th in total offense (398.5 yards per game) and 20th in scoring (34.7 points per game). On defense, they’re 20th in yards allowed (314.3 per game) and 38th in points allowed (22.2 per game).

From a pure talent standpoint, this looks like a fairly even matchup. However, given recent form, Pitt appears to have the clear edge. That said, this is exactly why they play the games — to see who steps up on Saturday and delivers in what should be an exciting ACC showdown.

Weather

This game should feature mild fall conditions, with temperatures in the low to mid-50s and only a 3% chance of rain. Winds won’t be a factor either, averaging around 1 mph with occasional gusts up to 6 mph.

Betting Overview

Pitt opened this matchup as a -7.5 favorite and remains favored, though the line has shifted slightly to -6.5. The moneyline has followed a similar trend, with the best current value for NC State at +205 and Pitt listed at -240. The total opened at 55.5 and has since moved up to either 56.5 or 57.5, depending on the book.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: These teams are actually fairly close to one another, with NC State ranked 61st and Pitt at 43rd. Pitt is giving 7.5 points to the FBS average, while NC State is giving 2.6. Based on these numbers, Pitt would be around a 5-point favorite on a neutral field, suggesting that the current line of 6.5 to 7.5 in favor of Pitt is right in line with FPI projections.
  • SP+: This model is less favorable toward NC State, ranking them 66th and giving 2.5 points to the field average, while being more optimistic about Pitt at 31st, giving 12 points to the field average. According to SP+, the sportsbooks may be undervaluing Pitt, as these ratings would make them close to a two-touchdown favorite once home-field advantage is factored in.

Betting Trends

NC State enters this matchup just below .500 ATS at 3-4. They’ve struggled a bit on the road, going 1-2 overall and 0-2 as an away underdog. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over, which has hit in 4 of 7 games this season. On the road, the over has cashed in 2 of 3 contests and split evenly in their games as a road underdog.

Pitt, on the other hand, has been a strong ATS team this season with a 5-2 record. The Panthers have covered in 3 of 4 home games, and in every home game where they’ve been favored. Overs have also been slightly more favorable, hitting in 4 of 7 games overall, including 3 at home with 1 push.

Final Thoughts

This is an important game for Pitt not to overlook, as they remain right in the thick of the ACC race with only one conference loss. NC State comes into this one as a bit of a wounded team but should be refreshed after their bye week. That said, given the way Pitt has played even against stronger opponents, I like the Panthers to cover here. The total is a bit tricky, but I’d lean slightly toward the over.