Game: Clemson Tigers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Date: January 10th at 6:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

In one of the later games on Saturday, Clemson continues its ACC schedule with a road trip to South Bend, Indiana, where the Tigers will face Notre Dame. Clemson has been red hot for about a month and looks to continue its run, which could push the Tigers inside the Top 25 for the first time this season. 

After securing their third ACC win with a victory over SMU on Wednesday, Clemson improved to 13-3 on the year. With Notre Dame ranked 60th in the NET and this game being played on the road, the Fighting Irish qualify as a Quad 1 opponent for Clemson, a category in which the Tigers are 2-2 this season. Offensively, Clemson averages 77.9 points per game (124th in Division I), while defensively they allow just 65.9 points per game (24th).

Notre Dame has been somewhat inconsistent this season, entering the matchup with a 10-5 overall record and a 1-1 mark in ACC play. Because Clemson sits 32nd in the NET and Notre Dame is at home, the Tigers qualify as a Quad 2 opponent for the Irish, who are 1-0 against Quad 2 teams this year. Notre Dame averages 74.3 points per game (188th in Division I) and allows 66.8 points per game defensively (28th). This matchup shapes up as a defense-oriented contest and could be lower scoring, though it will be interesting to see how it ultimately plays out.

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Betting Overview

The spread in this matchup is tight, with Clemson listed as a slight favorite in the range of 1.5 to 2.5 points. On the moneyline, the Tigers are priced at -160, while Notre Dame can be found at +132. The total is set very low, with some books listing it at 132.5, while others have it at 133 or 133.5.

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom ratings, Clemson ranks 35th with a net rating of +19.28, while Notre Dame sits 59th with a net rating of +13.48. The Tigers post an adjusted offensive efficiency of 117.0 (62nd nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.7 (23rd). Notre Dame checks in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 113.3 (98th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 99.8 (42nd).

Betting Trends

These teams have played four times dating back to 2022, splitting the series 2–2 straight up and against the spread. The over has been the more common result, hitting in three of the four matchups.

Clemson is 8-6-1 ATS this season, with a perfect 3-0 record on the road, a 2-4-1 record with 2–3 days of rest, and a 2-0-1 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned heavily toward the under, which has hit in nine of fifteen games. On the road, the over has hit in two of three games, while totals have split in games where Clemson was an away favorite. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has hit in four of seven games, and two of the three ACC games have also gone under.

Notre Dame comes into this matchup 10-5 ATS, with a 5-3 record at home, a 1-0 record as a home underdog, a 5-2 mark with four or more days of rest, and a 2-0 record in ACC play. The under has hit in seven of fifteen Notre Dame games this season. At home, the over has been more common, hitting in six of eight games, including the lone game as a home underdog. With four or more days of rest, the under has hit in four of seven games, while conference totals have split evenly.

Final Thoughts

While Clemson appears to be the stronger team on paper, this game feels like it could come down to the final possessions. Notre Dame has several factors working in its favor, including home-court advantage and a full week of rest. I still expect Clemson to find a way to win, but I’m not confident they’ll cover the spread. Given how low the total is set, it may seem counterintuitive, but I would still lean toward the under in this matchup.