Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals

Date: January 6th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Conference play got underway last week in the ACC, and you can really feel the college basketball season ramping up as college football winds down. While this isn’t quite a traditional “blue blood” matchup—with Duke being the lone true-blue blood—Louisville is still a storied program with three national championships.

These teams will square off in their third ACC game of the season, in a matchup that the selection committee will certainly evaluate when seeding teams for this year’s NCAA Tournament. Duke has started conference play 2–0 and enters this game with a 13–1 overall record, including an impressive 4–1 mark against Quad 1 opponents. The Blue Devils boast a high-powered offense, averaging 87.3 points per game (24th in Division I), while also playing strong defense, allowing just 65.5 points per game (22nd in Division I).

Louisville is coming off a tough road loss against Stanford on Friday, evening their ACC record at 1–1. Despite that setback, they still hold an 11–3 overall record, though they are just 2–3 against Quad 1 opponents. The Cardinals feature one of the highest-scoring offenses in the country, averaging 90.4 points per game (14th in Division I). Their fast-paced style helps offset a defense that allows 69.1 points per game (57th in Division I).

This sets up as a tightly contested matchup between two of the stronger teams in the ACC this season.

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Betting Overview (from DraftKings)

This game opened with Louisville listed as a 2.5-point favorite at even odds, but that number has been trimmed to 1.5 points. The moneyline is tight, with Duke at -105 and Louisville at -115. The total has ticked up slightly as well, moving from the opening number of 160.5 to 162.5.

KenPom Ratings

These teams are about as tight as it gets in the KenPom ratings, with Duke sitting 9th overall (net rating +28.92) and Louisville close behind at 12th (net rating +26.11). Duke has been extremely consistent on both ends of the floor, posting an offensive rating of 124.8 (11th nationally) and a defensive rating of 95.9 (16th nationally). Louisville, on the other hand, is much more offense-driven, coming in with a 126.8 offensive rating (4th nationally), while their defense checks in at 70.7 (69th nationally).

Betting Trends

These two programs have plenty of history, and over the last 10 meetings, Duke has won 7, all of which have come in the last 7 matchups. Duke also holds a slight edge against the spread in those games, covering 5 times compared to Louisville’s 4, with one push. Totals have leaned toward the under in this rivalry, hitting in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Duke enters this matchup at 7-7 ATS on the season, with a 6-3 record in games played with 2–3 days of rest, a 2-1 record on the road, and an 0-2 mark in ACC play. Totals in Duke games have favored the under, hitting in 9 of 14 overall and in 6 of 9 games with 2–3 days of rest. On the road, however, the over has hit in 2 of 3 games, as well as in both ACC contests thus far.

Louisville has been much stronger against the spread, sitting at 9-5 ATS this season. They are 5-1 ATS with four or more days of rest, 6-2 ATS at home, and 1-1 ATS in conference play. Totals in Louisville games have split evenly at 7-7, with the over being more favorable when they have extended rest, hitting in 4 of 6 games. At home, totals have split 4 apiece, as have their conference games.

Final Thoughts

Louisville should be happy to return home after opening ACC play on the West Coast. They’ll face a Duke team that narrowly won its first two conference games, showing that they are far from flawless. With much of the early betting support coming in on Duke and causing the line to shift, there may be value on Louisville if they move into the +1.5 to +2.5 underdog range. As for the total, given the offensive firepower on both sides, I expect a high-scoring game and would lean toward the over if you can get it at 162.5 or better.