Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 6:40 PM ET

Philadelphia Phillies Over 3.5 Runs (-120 per DraftKings)

Today marks the start of a three-game “Battle of Pennsylvania” series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The likely pitching matchup features Aaron Nola for Philadelphia and Braxton Ashcraft for Pittsburgh.

The Phillies are coming off another series victory against the Red Sox. While the runs did not fully explode in that series, Philadelphia still managed to rack up 9 hits in yesterday’s game alone. Over their last 10 contests, the Phillies have scored over 3.5 runs in 5 games, showing signs that the offense is beginning to stabilize.

Ashcraft has been a quality arm overall this season for Pittsburgh, but his splits at home are noticeably weaker. He owns a 3.42 ERA at home compared to a 2.16 ERA on the road, while also allowing opponents to hit .224 against him at PNC Park versus .205 away from home.

If the Phillies are able to pressure Ashcraft early in counts and continue producing contact like they did in Boston, they should be in a strong position to clear this run total tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals 6:45 PM ET

Washington Nationals Over 4.5 Runs (+114 per DraftKings)

The Washington Nationals may have won their series against the Reds, but yesterday’s finale was certainly one to forget, as they were blown out 15-1. Tonight they return home for the “Beltway Series” against the Baltimore Orioles looking to bounce back offensively.

Even with yesterday’s rough showing, this young Nationals lineup has consistently proven it can score runs in bunches. Washington has scored over 4.5 runs in 3 of its last 5 games and in 5 of its last 10 overall.

The matchup also lines up favorably against Shane Baz, who has struggled this season with a 5.48 ERA. Baz has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts and has had difficulty putting hitters away consistently.

Washington has also been solid against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 12th in MLB with a .242 team batting average against righties. While none of the Nationals hitters have faced Baz previously at the MLB level, the unfamiliarity works both ways, and Washington’s aggressive young lineup could capitalize quickly if Baz continues his recent struggles.

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays 7:10 PM ET

Miami Marlins Under 3.5 Runs (-105 per DraftKings)

The Miami Marlins are coming off a difficult series in Minnesota and now head to Tropicana Field for the “Citrus Series” against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both teams are expected to send quality arms to the mound tonight, with Miami turning to Janson Junk while Tampa Bay counters with Jesse Scholtens.

During the Twins series, Miami scored under 3.5 runs twice despite playing in one of the more hitter-friendly environments in baseball. Now they move into a much more pitcher-friendly setting, which only adds to the challenge offensively.

Scholtens has quietly been very effective this season, posting a 3.29 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across 27.1 innings pitched. While he is not typically used as a full-time starter, he did start his last outing and performed well, allowing just 2 earned runs across 4.2 innings.

Although Scholtens can occasionally give up home runs, Miami’s offense has cooled off recently, and this matchup sets up as another difficult spot for the Marlins lineup to generate consistent scoring tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves 7:15 PM ET

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Spencer Strider Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+109 per DraftKings)

Spencer Strider looks set to make his third start of the season tonight as the Atlanta Braves host the Boston Red Sox.

Strider’s season debut against Colorado was understandably shaky as he worked his way back into rhythm after missing time, but his most recent outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers reminded everyone exactly how dominant his strikeout stuff can be. In that performance, he threw 6 shutout innings, allowed just 1 hit, and piled up 8 strikeouts.

There is no question that Strider possesses elite swing-and-miss ability, especially when he gets ahead in counts with his fastball-slider combination. The Red Sox lineup has also been vulnerable to strikeouts this season, currently ranking 15th in MLB in total strikeouts despite having played slightly fewer games than several teams ahead of them.

Tonight will also mark Strider’s first home start of the season at Truist Park, which should provide an extra boost of energy in front of the Atlanta crowd. If he carries over the command and velocity from his Dodgers outing, another big strikeout night feels very realistic.

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets 7:15 PM ET

Clay Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-164 per DraftKings)

We’ve got a fantastic pitching matchup tonight in the opening game of the “Subway Series” as the New York Mets host the New York Yankees. One of the more intriguing storylines will be former Yankee Clay Holmes taking the mound against his old club.

Holmes has never been known primarily as a strikeout pitcher, but he has quietly improved in that department recently. Over his last two starts, Holmes recorded 6 strikeouts in each outing while continuing to pitch deep into games.

Overall this season, Holmes has been outstanding, posting a 1.86 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. His ability to generate weak contact while efficiently working through lineups has allowed him to consistently reach the later innings.

The Yankees lineup has also been more strikeout-prone than many would expect, ranking 9th in MLB with 386 strikeouts this season. Sportsbooks are also projecting a low-scoring affair tonight with the game total sitting at just 7 runs, suggesting confidence in both starting pitchers working deep into the game.

With Holmes pitching at home and coming off back-to-back strong strikeout performances, this sets up as another favorable opportunity for him to reach at least 5 strikeouts tonight.