New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals 4:05 PM ET

Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI’s (-166 per DraftKings)

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Game 4 of the series between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals gets underway this afternoon, and after back-to-back wins by Washington, the Nationals currently hold the advantage in the series. The best the Mets can do now is split the set, and one of the biggest reasons they still have that opportunity is the scorching play of Bo Bichette.

Bichette has been absolutely dominant throughout this series, piling up 6 hits, 5 runs scored, and 7 RBIs over the first three games. He has consistently delivered in big spots and has looked far more comfortable at the plate compared to earlier in the season.

This afternoon, the Mets will face Cade Cavalli, who has been serviceable overall this season, but still vulnerable at times. Cavalli enters the game with a 4.05 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 10.41 H/9, which leaves plenty of opportunities for opposing hitters to generate offense. Bichette has already faced Cavalli previously and managed to go 1-for-3 against him.

Even if the Mets don’t fully capitalize against Cavalli early, Washington’s bullpen has struggled throughout the season, giving Bichette additional opportunities later in the game to continue stuffing the stat sheet. With the way he’s seeing the ball right now, it’s difficult to fade him in this matchup.

Washington Nationals Over 3.5 Runs (-125 per DraftKings)

It has been an excellent offensive series for the Washington Nationals so far, as they’ve scored 7, 9, and 8 runs respectively through the first three games against the Mets. Washington has now surpassed the 3.5 run mark in 4 of their last 5 games, and in 6 of their last 10 overall.

The Mets are expected to send left-hander David Peterson to the mound this afternoon. Peterson has struggled with consistency this season, entering this game with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and a 10.59 H/9.

While the Nationals lineup tends to lean left-handed, that has not stopped them from producing against southpaws this year. In fact, Washington has been one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, ranking 3rd in MLB with a .273 team batting average and 4th in slugging percentage at .439 against lefties.

Even though the game total currently sits at a modest 8 runs, Washington’s recent offensive form combined with Peterson’s struggles makes this a favorable setup for the Nationals to once again push across at least four runs this afternoon.

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins 6:40 PM ET

Spencer Strider Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-116 per DraftKings)

Spencer Strider now appears fully settled in following his return from an oblique strain and tonight feels like the spot where we finally see Atlanta fully remove the limitations on his workload.

Through his first three starts back, Strider has averaged 87.3 pitches per outing, but tonight it would not be surprising to see him push well into the 90-pitch range. He has only cleared the 5⅔ innings mark once this season, which came in a dominant 6.0 inning outing against the Dodgers on May 9th.

Even while building back up, Strider’s stuff has still looked electric. Across 14.2 innings pitched, he owns a 2.45 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts.

Last season against the Miami Marlins, Strider threw 7 innings while allowing just 3 hits and 1 earned run, needing only 95 pitches to do so. The current Marlins lineup also has very little success against him historically, with only one hitter in the projected lineup recording a hit off Strider in prior matchups.

With Atlanta likely ready to extend his workload further and the matchup strongly favoring him, Strider looks well-positioned to clear the 16.5 outs mark tonight.

Miami Marlins Under 3.5 Runs (-130 per DraftKings)

The Miami Marlins came out swinging early in this series against Atlanta, but they’ve quickly cooled off after dropping the last two games. Last night against Chris Sale, Miami managed to score just a single run, and tonight’s matchup does not get any easier with Spencer Strider taking the mound.

As mentioned previously, Strider has looked dominant since returning to the rotation, and Miami’s hitters have historically struggled badly against him. Only one player in the projected Marlins lineup has recorded a hit against Strider in prior meetings.

Miami has also been inconsistent offensively lately, failing to score more than 3.5 runs in 5 of their last 10 games. Even in their win against Strider last season, the Marlins only managed to score 2 total runs.

With the current game total sitting at 8 and the betting market leaning toward the under overall, this projects as another low-scoring game where Miami struggles to generate much offense against one of the premier strikeout pitchers in baseball.