No Caitlin? No problem. The Indiana Fever took out the Portland Fire with ease on Wednesday night as Caitlin Clark sat out for what’s essentially load management of her back. We’ve seen this a ton in the NBA, obviously, but this is really the first example I can think of in the WNBA where a team is proactively resting its star player to preserve her for the long run. The Connecticut Sun also got their first win last night, and the Dallas Wings got a road win in Chicago and almost hung 100 on the Sky. Tonight we’ve got the Golden State Valkyries visiting the New York Liberty, the Toronto Tempo heading to Minnesota and the Phoenix Mercury hosting the LA Sparks. Here are the TSI projections for Thursday’s slate.

New York Liberty (-7.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 170.5

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Oddly, both of these teams have been off for about a week each heading into this game. I find that strange since the season just started; nonetheless, the Liberty will take its #2-rated TSI offense and 13th-rated TSI defense into battle against Golden State, who ranks 11th and 2nd, respectively. TSI projects Liberty -4.5 with a total of 168.5. Betting Liberty Unders can be tricky because they’re liable to go for 100 any given night, but I do think Golden State can and will keep this closer than the 7.5 point spread.

Bet: Valkyries +7.5 (Play to +6)

Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 173.5

This is one of the first “schedule spots” of the season; unfortunately, the spot and the TSI projection don’t align, so I’m not going to have a play here but will be fascinated to see how it unfolds. Minnesota is 6th on both ends of the court, per TSI, and Toronto is 8th on offense and 10th on defense. TSI projects Minnesota -4 with a total of 175.5; however, this is Toronto’s 4th road game in a week, so I do wonder how much fatigue plays a factor for them in this game. Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes have been fantastic, but I’m too apprehensive to bet them in this game, given the spot.

Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 177.5

What in the world is wrong with LA? They’ve started just 1-3, and aside from Kelsey Plum lighting it up, they haven’t done much to write home about after preseason expectations had them in contender status. That still very well may play out, but right now, they are not playing like it. They are, however, 4th in TSI offense, but dead last in TSI defensive rating. Phoenix on the other hand, is 3rd on offense and 5th on defense. TSI projects Mercury -6 with a total of 179, but there’s just such a disparity between what I think LA is and what they’ve played like, and also, as I mentioned yesterday, home favorites just aren’t covering at a good clip at all so far. I’m going to pass and just see if LA gives us another example of them being overrated or if they show us we were right to believe in them in the preseason.

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