Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners 4:10 PM ET

Austin Riley 2+ Total Bases (+174 per DraftKings)

While certainly a risky pick, Austin Riley has already shown some flashes in the month of May, signaling that things are trending in the right direction for him. The year as a whole hasn’t been great, as he has a .207 batting average with a .639 OPS. Looking at the first 5 games in May, we’ve seen Riley accumulate 6 hits in 19 ABs with 12 total bases.

Things didn’t go well last night for Riley, though in the first game of this Mariners series, he managed to go 2 for 4 with a homer. Like many hitters in baseball, Riley tends to be a very streaky hitter historically, and with him hitting the ball harder recently, the extra-base hits should continue to come.

If he can build off some of the quality ABs he has already had this month, there is some really solid value backing him at +174 this afternoon in Seattle.

Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies 6:40 PM ET

Adolis Garcia Under 0.5 Hits (+123 per DraftKings)

Embed from Getty Images

Adolis Garcia’s first season with the Phillies has been very up and down, but he has been slightly better in the batting average department compared to his career average, as he’s batting .238 versus .237. In the first 4 games of May for Garcia, he is batting .200 and has gone o-fer in 2 of the 4 games.

Coming from the AL West, Garcia has seen Jeffrey Springs a decent amount, and things haven’t gone very well. In 11 ABs, Garcia has recorded just 1 hit, which came back in 2022. Given Garcia’s recent track record, along with his history against Springs, this is an optimal spot to fade him, especially at plus odds.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins 6:40 PM ET

Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 per DraftKings)

When in doubt, you can always rely on the consistent bat of Otto Lopez, who already has 71 total bases this season. In 141 ABs this year, we’ve seen Lopez record 47 hits, making his average .333, and he carries an impressive .871 OPS alongside that.

In his last 5 games, he has recorded 9 hits in 23 at-bats with 13 total bases. In the month of May, he has only had 1 game where he finished with fewer than 2 total bases, and in his last 10 games, he has surpassed the 1.5 total bases mark in 6 of them.

Starting today’s game for Baltimore is Brandon Young, who Lopez has seen once before, where he went 1 for 2 with a home run. Young has made just 3 starts this season, where he had a rock-solid performance in his opening outing, but has been hit hard since. In his last 2 starts, he has gone a combined 9.2 innings while allowing 16 combined hits.

His strikeout numbers have also been down, giving Lopez ample opportunity to rack up hits and add to his total bases.

Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals 6:45 PM ET

Miles Mikolas Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-129 per DraftKings)

The Nationals got knocked around a bit by the Minnesota Twins yesterday, and will look to bounce back with Miles Mikolas on the mound tonight. While Mikolas’ ERA looks absurd at 8.23, he has done a better job limiting earned runs than that number may suggest throughout much of April.

In his 6 starts during the month, he allowed under 2.5 earned runs in 3 of them, and he typically does not go especially deep into games. If Mikolas can continue limiting hits like he has in his last few outings, while also improving his WHIP, he should be able to manage this Twins lineup and keep the damage relatively limited in this matchup.

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies 9:20 PM ET

Mark Vientos 2+ Total Bases (+100 per DraftKings)

Yesterday’s Mets vs. Rockies game was postponed due to inclement weather, so the series will resume tonight in Colorado. Mets first baseman Mark Vientos has been on a tear over the last few games. Dating back to April 30th, he has gone 5 for 16 while recording 13 total bases.

He and the Mets will also be facing Michael Lorenzen tonight, who Vientos has hit extremely well throughout his career, posting a .800 batting average along with a home run in 5 ABs. This season has not been great for Lorenzen either, as he enters with a 6.09 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP across 34.0 innings pitched.

In Lorenzen’s last 4 starts, we’ve seen him allow 7 hits in 3 of those outings, some of which came in 5.0 innings or fewer. This shapes up as a very favorable matchup for both the Mets and Vientos, and I expect him to have another strong night at the plate.