The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 6, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: PIT is 14-3 (+10.24 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-126 at AZ)
* Strangely, teams on winning streaks of 5 games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 79-66 (+17.34 units, ROI: 12%) in their last 145 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-136 vs CLE)
Trend: PHI is 0-13 (-14.85 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ATH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 69-50 start for +0.69 units and an ROI of +0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-168 at COL), TEXAS (+163 at NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs ATH), MINNESOTA (-136 at WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 19-31 for -15.05 units and an ROI of -30.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), SAN DIEGO (-112 at SF)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 69-51 start for -6.34 units and an ROI of -5.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (-168 at COL), TAMPA BAY (-149 vs TOR), BOSTON (-108 at DET), LA DODGERS (-219 at HOU), SEATTLE (-136 vs ATL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 34-43 for +7.93 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-112 vs MIL), COLORADO (+139 vs NYM), LA ANGELS (-105 vs CWS), HOUSTON (+179 vs LAD), BALTIMORE (+113 at MIA), WASHINGTON (+113 vs MIN)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 24-15 but for -13.91 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-219 at HOU)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 64-85 for -14.17 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), TEXAS (+163 at NYY), CLEVELAND (+113 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 20-22 for +1.29 units and an ROI of +3.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-199 vs TEX), KANSAS CITY (-136 vs CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 36-45 for -3.96 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+124 at TB), CINCINNATI (+144 at CHC), COLORADO (+139 vs NYM)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 369-403 but for +98.52 units and an ROI of 12.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+124 at TB)
*WATCH FOR MILWAUKEE at STL (-108 CURRENTLY) and BOSTON at DET (-108 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 650-762 record but for +15.57 units and an ROI of 1.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at STL), TORONTO (+124 at TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-115 at LAA), LA DODGERS (-219 at HOU)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 442-423 (51.1%) for +20.55 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-112 vs BOS), WASHINGTON (+113 vs MIN)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2036-1929 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.50 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA, BOSTON, MINNESOTA
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,040-2,615 (43.8%) for -275.84 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS, PITTSBURGH
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4133-3584 (53.6%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -510.53 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 90-136 SU (-24.95 units, ROI: -11%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+113 at MIA)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 73-43 SU for +14.53 units (ROI: 12.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-168 at COL)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 494-567 SU but for +66.81 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 167-183 SU for +35.01 units in the last 350 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+124 at TB), CLEVELAND (+113 at KC), ATHLETICS (+144 at PHI), CINCINNATI (+144 at CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of 5 games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 79-66 (+17.34 units, ROI: 12%) in their last 145 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-136 vs CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5 games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 182-150 (+10.67 units, ROI: 3.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-149 vs TOR), KANSAS CITY (-136 vs CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of 5 games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 247-163 in their last 410 tries (+38.46 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-199 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 156-149 (-53.16 units, ROI: -17.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs CIN), NY YANKEES (-199 vs TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TEXAS +163 (+35 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI -136 (+25 diff), PITTSBURGH -126 (+15), SEATTLE -136 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-AZ OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CLE-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.6), MIL-STL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOS-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MILWAUKEE (18-16) at (952) ST LOUIS (21-14)
Trend: STL is 5-8 (-5.52 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-112 vs MIL)
(953) NEW YORK-NL (13-22) at (954) COLORADO (14-22)
Trend: Under the total is 13-3 (+9.70 units) in Freddy Peralta’s last 16 road starts versus NL teams within line range of -300 to +112 since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-COL (o/u at 9.5)
(955) SAN DIEGO (21-14) at (956) SAN FRANCISCO (14-22)
Trend: Adrian Houser’s teams are 26-13 (+14.12 units) in his last 39 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs SD)
Trend: Under the total is 9-3-2 (+5.70 units) in SF day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SF (o/u at 8.5)
(957) CINCINNATI (20-16) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (24-12)
Trend: CHC is 16-5 (+6.77 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs CIN)
(959) PITTSBURGH (19-17) at (960) ARIZONA (17-17)
Trend: PIT is 14-3 (+10.24 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-126 at AZ)
Trend: Mike Soroka’s teams are 4-14 (-10.82 units) in his last 18 starts in the -120 to +115 line range
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+104 vs PIT)
(961) TORONTO (16-20) at (962) TAMPA BAY (23-12)
Trend: TB is 7-1 (+6.72 units) against LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-149 vs TOR)
(963) CHICAGO-AL (17-19) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (14-23)
Trend: Over the total is 9-2 (+6.80 units) when LAA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-LAA (o/u at 9)
(965) BOSTON (15-21) at (966) DETROIT (18-19)
Trend: DET is 12-5 (+5.54 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-112 vs BOS)
(971) LOS ANGELES-NL (22-14) at (972) HOUSTON (15-22)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow’s teams are 47-15 (+11.67 units) when he starts as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-219 at HOU)
(973) ATLANTA (26-11) at (974) SEATTLE (17-20)
Trend: SEA is 21-6 (+12.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-136 vs ATL)
(975) BALTIMORE (16-20) at (976) MIAMI (16-20)
Trend: MIA is 3-9 (-8.73 units) as a short favorite (within line range of -115 to -140) with starter Eury Perez the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-136 vs BAL)
(977) ATHLETICS (18-17) at (978) PHILADELPHIA (16-20)
Trend: Zach Wheeler’s teams are 16-3 (+10.75 units) as home favorites between the -165 and -190 line range in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-175 vs ATH)
Trend: PHI is 0-13 (-14.85 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ATH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): COLORADO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-LAA, NYM-COL
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, May 7)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Wednesday, May 6 appeared first on VSiN.
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