Game: North Texas Mean Green at Charlotte 49ers 

Date: October 24th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

This Friday night, the Charlotte 49ers will be back at home, this time taking on the North Texas Mean Green. North Texas enters near the top of the American Conference with a 2-1 conference record and a 6-1 record overall. The Mean Green have been one of the strongest offenses in the FBS this season, ranking 16th in yards per game (458.8) and 1st in points per game (44). Defensively, things haven’t quite kept up, as they’re 84th in yards allowed per game (395.5) and 97th in points allowed per game (30).

This is certainly a longshot for the 49ers, who rank 130th in yards per game (273) and 134th in points per game (13). Defensively, things aren’t much better, as they sit 114th in yards allowed per game (435.5) and 117th in points allowed per game (34.8). At this point in the season—especially given how things have gone—the 49ers are playing with house money, so any small victories (not necessarily wins) will be a boost for this program. This game won’t draw much national attention outside of fans of these teams and those betting on it. Let’s dive into some of the betting factors for this matchup.

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Weather

Conditions should be comfortably cool for this game, with temperatures starting in the 60s and dipping into the 50s as the night goes on. Precipitation won’t be a concern, with just a 1% chance of rain, and winds should remain light—averaging around 4 mph with gusts up to 9 mph.

Betting Overview

The spread in this one has remained fairly consistent across most books, opening at either -26.5 or -27.5 in favor of North Texas and holding steady at that number. Moneylines have shown more variation depending on the book, with the best value for North Texas at -2800 and +1550 for Charlotte. The total has inched up slightly from its original line of 59.5 to between 60.5 and 61.5.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: North Texas enters this week ranked 53rd in FPI, giving 3.9 points to the FBS average. Charlotte sits at 135th in this power rating, receiving 22.5 points from the FBS average. Based on these metrics, North Texas would be a 26.5-point favorite on a neutral field, making them roughly 23.5 to 24.5-point favorites in this one due to Charlotte’s home field.
  • SP+: North Texas ranks slightly stronger in this model at 43rd, giving the FBS average 8.7 points, while Charlotte sits 133rd and receives 22.6 from the FBS average. This model would favor North Texas by around 31 points on a neutral field, suggesting they’d be favored by roughly 27.5 to 28.5 points here.

Betting Trends

North Texas has been a strong ATS team so far with a 5-2 record, all of which have come in games where they were favored. They’ve only played on the road twice this season, splitting those matchups 1-1. Overs have also been frequent, hitting in 5 of their 7 games. On the road, the over has hit in both contests.

Charlotte, on the other hand, has not been as successful ATS, sitting at 1-4-2. At home this season, they’re 1-3 and 0-3 as a home underdog. The over has been more common in 49ers games, cashing in 4 of 7 overall. At home, the over has hit in 3 of 4 games and in 2 of 3 as a home underdog.

Final Thoughts

This Charlotte team has been difficult to gauge from a betting perspective, given how much their lines can vary. The 49ers haven’t shown much on either side of the ball, which makes me lean toward North Texas on the spread. The total is tougher to call, as Charlotte has struggled to put points on the board at times.