Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Date: November 16th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

After another perplexing week for the Carolina Panthers, they’re back on the road for the I-85 rivalry against the Atlanta Falcons. It has been an up-and-down season for Carolina, and after riding the highest high of the year with the win in Green Bay, they immediately hit a new low with a loss to the New Orleans Saints—who were tied for the worst record in the NFL entering that game. Now sitting at 5-5, the Panthers need to handle their business in Atlanta.

The issues for Carolina aren’t hard to spot they rank 27th in yards per game (297.1) and 28th in points per game (17.7). Their defense has held up better, sitting 16th in yards allowed (323.7) and 12th in points allowed (22.2). Atlanta, meanwhile, has endured a very disappointing season and enters this matchup on a four-game losing streak, falling to 3-6. Offensively, the Falcons are 16th in yards per game (330.8) but just 27th in scoring (18.7). Their defense remains a bright spot, ranking 10th in yards allowed (308.8) and 16th in points allowed (23.2).

This matchup gives both teams a major opportunity: Carolina can steady the ship and stay in the playoff picture, while Atlanta still has the chance to turn its season around before it’s too late.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

We initially saw the Falcons listed as 3-point favorites, and that number has since moved to 3.5. The moneyline has also shifted slightly toward Atlanta, with the best available price on the Panthers now at +160 and the Falcons at -180. The total has taken a noticeable drop as well, falling from the opening line of 45.5 down to 42.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: At the start of the season, this matchup might have looked different, but Dave Canales and his staff in Carolina have been more effective than Raheem Morris and his group. This should be a good clash of coaching schemes, though the edge goes to the Panthers.

DLs vs. OLs: In the trenches, the Panthers have been slightly better on both sides of the ball. When you can control both lines, it becomes a fairly straightforward call—Carolina has the advantage up front.

QBs: Neither quarterback has put together an impressive stretch. Bryce Young appeared to take a step back last week, while Michael Penix Jr. has mostly just managed the offense. It’s not the most thrilling QB matchup, but Penix has been the slightly better performer.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Atlanta controls the middle of the field. Carolina’s linebacker unit has struggled and dealt with injuries, while the Falcons’ strongest offensive pieces are in the backfield. Kyle Pitts has also had his best season in some time, giving Atlanta the clear edge here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The Falcons also hold the advantage in this category. Carolina has essentially been a one-man show at receiver, while Atlanta has more depth—even if they haven’t been spectacular. The Falcons’ secondary has likewise been one of the stronger units in the NFL.

Betting Trends

In the last 10 meetings between these teams, they’ve split the series with five wins each, though the Panthers hold a slight edge against the spread, covering in six of those matchups. The under has also been the more favorable play, hitting in six of the last ten.

Carolina remains a strong ATS team at 6–4 overall, with a 3–2 mark on the road, a 2–2 record as a road underdog, and a 1–1 record within the division. Their totals have been evenly split with five overs and five unders. On the road, the under has hit in three of five games, and they’ve split two unders and two overs as an away underdog. Both of their division games have gone under.

Atlanta enters this matchup at 4-4-1 ATS, with a 2–2 record at home, a 1–2 mark as a home favorite, and a 0–2 record in the division. The under has been the more reliable play in Falcons games, hitting in five of nine. At home, the under has hit twice, with one over and one push. As a home favorite, they’ve posted one over, one under, and one push. Both of their division games have also gone under.

Final Thoughts

Given how inconsistent both teams have been lately, this matchup is tough to bet. Atlanta has come close in each of the last two weeks, and it feels like they’re on the brink of breaking through. I lean toward Atlanta winning and covering here, and I’m staying away from the total.