Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date: January 3rd at 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

In the second and final game of Saturday’s NFL slate, we’ll see the NFC West crown decided in a matchup between the Seahawks and the 49ers. In what has been far and away the best division in football this season, it all comes down to one game. This is a true win-and-in scenario, with both teams controlling their own destiny.

Seattle enters red hot on a six-game winning streak, holding a 13–3 record. Offensively, the Seahawks rank 8th in yards per game (350.8) and 2nd in points per game (29.4). Their defense has been just as impressive, ranking 5th in yards allowed per game (292.6) and 2nd in points allowed (18.1).

San Francisco also comes into this matchup riding a six-game winning streak and sits at 12–4 on the season. Offensively, they’ve been slightly more productive in terms of yardage, ranking 7th in yards per game (362.6), while scoring 27.1 points per game (8th). Defensively, however, they’ve been more middle of the pack, ranking 19th in yards allowed per game (338.9) and 13th in points allowed (22.4).

Given the division rivalry, these teams know each other extremely well. The stakes couldn’t be higher, as the winner not only claims the NFC West title but also secures the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye.

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Weather

We won’t be getting “sunny California” conditions in Santa Clara, as rain is expected throughout the game with around a 60% chance of precipitation. Temperatures should remain manageable in the high 50s, but wind could be a factor, averaging roughly 15 mph with gusts reaching up to 24 mph.

Betting Overview

The line for this matchup has moved considerably from its opener, which initially had San Francisco favored by 4.5 points. Since then, the market has flipped, with Seattle now listed as a 1.5-point favorite. On the moneyline, the Seahawks sit at -118 (from +164), while the 49ers are now +105 (from -198). The total has also ticked up slightly, rising from 44.5 to 47.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: While Mike Macdonald and his staff have been impressive in his second season, he’ll be going up against one of the premier offensive minds in the NFL in Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers have dealt with key injuries all season long, yet Shanahan and his staff have consistently rallied the group and now find themselves with a chance to secure the No. 1 overall seed.

OLs vs. DLs: These teams are fairly similar when looking at their offensive lines. San Francisco also has a slight chance of getting veteran Trent Williams back this week, though nothing has been confirmed. The biggest difference between these teams shows up on the defensive line, where Seattle has been one of the best units in the NFL, while San Francisco’s defensive front has struggled for much of the season.

QBs: Sam Darnold has followed up last season with another strong campaign, though there have been stretches where he hasn’t looked his best. Brock Purdy, despite dealing with multiple injuries this year, has more tools at his disposal overall, giving the quarterback edge to San Francisco.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Despite being without Fred Warner for much of the season, this matchup still favors San Francisco. George Kittle is a bit banged up entering this game but is expected to play. Christian McCaffrey will also be in the backfield, which is always a significant advantage against any opponent.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both teams have been dealing with injuries at wide receiver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has clearly been Seattle’s most consistent and productive option. San Francisco may have more overall depth at receiver, but Seattle’s secondary has been much stronger than the 49ers’, giving the Seahawks the edge on the outside.

Betting Trends

San Francisco has dominated this matchup over the last 10 meetings, winning seven times, covering six times, and seeing the under hit in six of those games. In their earlier meeting this season, the 49ers traveled to Seattle and earned a tight 17–13 victory, covering the spread while the under cashed.

Seattle enters this game with an impressive 11–5 ATS record, including a 7–1 mark on the road, a 5–1 record as a road favorite, and a 3–2 record in divisional games. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in nine of 16 games. On the road, totals have split evenly at 4–4, and the same applies to games as a road favorite. In divisional matchups, the under has hit in three of five.

San Francisco is 10–5–1 ATS on the season, with a 3–3–1 record at home, a 1–1 record as a home underdog, and a 3–2 mark in division play. Totals have favored the over, hitting in 10 of 16 games, including four of seven at home. As a home underdog, totals have split 1–1, while the over has hit in three of five divisional games.

Final Thoughts

These teams are very different from when they first met back in September. Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense have taken a noticeable step forward since that matchup, and the Seahawks have developed into one of the stronger defensive units in the NFL. While San Francisco certainly benefits from playing at home, I believe Seattle’s defensive front and improved offensive line play will ultimately be the difference. I expect Seattle to hold onto the number one overall seed in the NFC and cover in this spot. Given the expected weather conditions, I would avoid the total in this game.