Game: Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: November 8th at 4:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: The CW Network

Following UNC’s first ACC win under head coach Bill Belichick, the Tar Heels will host the Stanford Cardinal, who are making their second trip to the East Coast in as many weeks. Stanford has struggled for much of the season, holding a 3-6 overall record and a 2-4 mark in the ACC. They’re also coming off back-to-back double-digit losses. Offensively, the Cardinal average 307.1 yards per game (120th in FBS) and 17.8 points per game (121st in FBS). The defense has been slightly better, allowing 425.1 yards per game (109th in FBS) and 30.1 points per game (96th in FBS).

For UNC, last week’s win brought them to 3-5 overall with a 1-3 record in ACC play. Statistically, the offense remains one of the weaker units in the FBS, averaging 297 yards per game (127th) and 16.3 points per game (127th). However, the defense has improved significantly, allowing just 338.4 yards per game (32nd in FBS) and 24.4 points per game (57th in FBS).

UNC still has a realistic shot at earning a bowl berth this season, but a loss this week would likely close that door — making this matchup a crucial one for their postseason hopes.

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Weather

This game will kick off with temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s before potentially dipping into the 50s as it progresses. Weather conditions should be ideal, with only a 2% chance of rain and light winds averaging around 2 mph, with occasional gusts up to 7 mph.

Betting Overview

Sportsbooks have remained consistent with this matchup, as it opened with UNC favored by 7.5 points, and most books have held steady at that number. The moneyline has shifted slightly toward Stanford, opening at +270 and now sitting between +225 and +250, while UNC has moved from -340 to a range of -278 to -325. The total has also stayed relatively steady, opening at 41.5 with a few books dipping to 41, though most remain at 41.5.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: According to this model, these teams are nearly identical, with Stanford ranked 84th and receiving 4.8 points above the FBS average, and UNC at 85th with 5.2 points above the average. Factoring in UNC’s home field, they would still be slight favorites, though by a narrow margin. Vegas clearly seems to be accounting for Stanford’s cross-country travel in its line.
  • SP+: This model is notably higher on UNC and much lower on Stanford. SP+ ranks UNC 89th, giving them 5.1 points above the FBS average, while Stanford sits at 115th with 12.1 points below the average. Based on this, the Tar Heels would project as even heavier favorites.

Betting Trends

Stanford has struggled mightily against the spread this season, holding a 2-7 record. Things have been even tougher on the road, where they are 0-5, though they’ve gone 2-4 in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the over in Stanford games, hitting in 5 of 9 overall. However, on the road the under has cashed in 3 of 5 games, while in conference matchups the over has hit in 4 of 6.

North Carolina, on the other hand, has been solid ATS this year with a 5-3 record. At home, the Tar Heels are 2-2, including 1-0 as home favorites. In ACC play, they’ve gone 3-1 ATS. Unders have been the more common outcome, hitting in 6 of 8 games. At home, totals have produced 1 over, 2 unders, and 1 push. As a home favorite, the under hit in that matchup, and within the conference the under has cashed in 3 of 4 games with 1 push.

Final Thoughts

With both teams struggling this season, this matchup should be a competitive one. While the cross-country travel for Stanford is certainly a factor, I don’t see this North Carolina team being able to pull away. Because of that, I’d take Stanford plus the points. The total is a bit tricky given how low it is, but I’d lean toward the over.