The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 49-35 SU for +22.39 units (ROI: 26.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+114 at MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 436-381 record for +51.25 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-156 at CWS), DETROIT (+104 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (-168 at LAA), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at SF)

Trend: Favorites are just 30-47 (39%, -36.68 units) in the last 77 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -47.6%
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-114 vs NYY)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 119-91 start for -1.25 units and an ROI of -0.6 after last week brought in +6.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-132 vs TEX)

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STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 19-18 for –3.23 units (ROI -8.7%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-143 vs MIA), TAMPA BAY (-168 at LAA), MINNESOTA (-137 vs STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-63 for -32.75 units and an ROI of -33.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+203 at MIL), SAN DIEGO (+108 at BAL)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 77-90 for +11.58 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+123 vs SEA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 29-13 for -1.27 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-252 vs PHI), ATHLETICS (-218 vs COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 19-9 start for -1.62 units.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-218 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2023-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 128-157 for -14.65 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+119 at PIT), ARIZONA (-103 at CIN), ATLANTA (+105 at NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (+104 at SF), NY YANKEES (-105 at TOR), LA ANGELS (+139 vs TB), SAN DIEGO (+108 at BAL), ST LOUIS (+114 at MIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an 85-102 start for -10.25 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 38-48 for -8.08 units and an ROI of -9.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BALTIMORE (-131 vs SD), TEXAS (+109 at BOS), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 vs LAD)
3+ games – TAMPA BAY (-168 at LAA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 484-384 for +44.30 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2023 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+119 at PIT), NY YANKEES (-105 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-168 at LAA)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 234-178 for +16.94 units and an ROI of 4.1% since the start of the 2023 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-117 at KC)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 143-187 for -41.07 units and an ROI of -12.4% since the start of the 2023 season
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-103 vs HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 409-353 but for -89.86 units and an ROI of -11.8% since the start of the 2023 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-132 vs TEX), CINCINNATI (-117 vs AZ), MINNESOTA (-137 vs STL)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 436-381 record for +51.25 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2023 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-156 at CWS), DETROIT (+104 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (-168 at LAA), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at SF)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,095-1,985 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -270.96 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+123 vs SEA), DETROIT (+104 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at SF), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 vs CHC)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,122-2,695 (44.1%) for -269.19 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-117 at KC), ATLANTA (+105 at NYM), ARIZONA (-103 at CIN), MIAMI (+119 at PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 641-531 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.71 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-114 vs NYY), MINNESOTA (-137 vs STL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 380-191 (66.5%) for +52.45 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-120 vs CHC)

Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 61-35-5 (63.5%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 31-8 Over streak in the last 39).
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYM (o/u at 8)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 99-145 SU (-24.14 units, ROI: -9.9%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+139 vs TB)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 223-256 SU but for +47.13 units (ROI: 9.8%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+169 at ATH)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 49-35 SU for +22.39 units (ROI: 26.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+114 at MIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 302-313 run (+11.54 units, ROI: 1.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (-132 vs TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 79-68 (+14.85 units, ROI: 10.1%) in their last 147 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+119 at PIT)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 249-169 in their last 418 tries (+31.83 units, ROI: 7.6%).
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+119 at PIT)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-161 (-62.43 units, ROI: -19.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-105 at TOR)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA +203 (+38 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +104 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND -126 (+19 diff), TORONTO -114 (+17)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: LAD-CWS OVER 9 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: AZ-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), MIA-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), CHC-SF UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MIAMI (34-35) at (902) PITTSBURGH (35-34)
Trend: Over the total is 19-6-3 (+12.40 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PIT (o/u at 8.5)

(903) ARIZONA (34-34) at (904) CINCINNATI (32-35)
Trend: CIN is 27-17 (+5.62 units) at home with Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-117 vs AZ)

(905) ATLANTA (45-23) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (30-38)
Trend: Over the total is 22-11-2 (+9.90 units) in ATL road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYM (o/u at 8)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (37-31) at (908) MILWAUKEE (41-25)
Trend: PHI is 3-8 (-7.17 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at MIL)

(913) DETROIT (29-40) at (914) CLEVELAND (37-33)
Trend: CLE is 31-17 (+12.33 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-126 vs DET)

(917) HOUSTON (31-39) at (918) KANSAS CITY (28-41)
Trend: Under the total is 20-7-1 (+12.30 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-KC (o/u at 9.5)

(919) TAMPA BAY (40-25) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (27-42)
Trend: TB is 24-12 (+11.20 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-168 at LAA)

(921) SEATTLE (36-34) at (922) WASHINGTON (35-34)
Trend: Over the total is 21-9-2 (+11.10 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-WSH (o/u at 9)

(925) LOS ANGELES-NL (44-25) at (926) CHICAGO-AL (36-31)
Trend: CWS is 22-11 (+12.61 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs LAD)

(927) ST LOUIS (37-29) at (928) MINNESOTA (31-39)
Trend: STL is 29-15 (+7.92 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at MIN)

Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Fri 6/12-Sun 6/14
Trend: Favorites are just 30-47 (39%, -36.68 units) in the last 77 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -47.6%
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-114 vs NYY)

Series #29: Texas at Boston, Fri 6/12-Sun 6/14
Trend: Home teams are 22-11 (66.7%, +7.98 units) since 2021 in the TEX-BOS series
– The ROI on this trend is 24.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-132 vs TEX)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, ATHLETICS, MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.System Match (CONSIDER): TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Tuesday, June 16)

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Friday, June 12 appeared first on VSiN.