The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 436-380 record for +52.50 units and an ROI of 6.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-123 at KC)
Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-160 (-61.30 units, ROI: -18.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-110 at ATH)
Trend: PIT is 15-4 (+9.93 units) as small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-117 vs LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 115-87 start for +0.34 units and an ROI of +0.2 after last week brought in +6.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 at TB), MIAMI (-156 vs AZ), DETROIT (-131 vs MIN), NY METS (-131 vs STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 18-18 for –4.23 units (ROI -11.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-125 at SD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-59 for -27.86 units and an ROI of -29.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 at COL), SAN DIEGO (+104 vs CIN), MILWAUKEE (-110 at ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 75-88 for +10.81 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-112 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 124-151 for -12.50 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-101 vs NYY), LA DODGERS (-103 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (+104 vs CIN), MILWAUKEE (-110 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an 82-100 start for -11.24 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 36-46 for -8.29 units and an ROI of-10.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (+102 vs TEX)
3+ games – ST LOUIS (+108 at NYM)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had prove+n to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 65-76 for -2.12 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+103 vs SEA), PITTSBURGH (-117 vs LAD), COLORADO (+129 vs CHC), CINCINNATI (-125 at SD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 483-383 for +44.74 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+108 at NYM), ATLANTA (-157 vs CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 234-177 for +18.19 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-123 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 409-351 but for -87.29 units and an ROI of -11.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-117 vs LAD), NY METS (-131 vs STL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 436-380 record for +52.50 units and an ROI of 6.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-123 at KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2092-1979 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -265.80 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-123 at KC), MILWAUKEE (-110 at ATH), ATHLETICS (-110 vs MIL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,119-2,690 (44.1%) for -266.15 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 at COL), BOSTON (-120 at TB), CINCINNATI (-125 at SD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 641-529 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.94 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+103 vs SEA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 379-190 (66.6%) for +53.16 units and an ROI of 9.3%!
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ATHLETICS vs MIL (-110 CURRENTLY)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 60-34-5 (63.8%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 30-7 Over streak last season).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-ATH (o/u at 13)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 342-306 (52.8%) for +20.40 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+129 vs CHC), ATHLETICS (-110 vs MIL)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 97-143 SU (-24.27 units, ROI: -10.1%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (+108 at NYM), WASHINGTON (-108 at SF)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 221-255 SU but for +45.30 units (ROI: 9.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+129 vs CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-160 (-61.30 units, ROI: -18.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-110 at ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHILADELPHIA -108 (+34 diff), SAN DIEGO +104 (+29), TAMPA BAY -101 (+27), ATLANTA -149 (+24), ARIZONA +129 (+19)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NY METS -131 (+18 diff), NY YANKEES -120 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEX-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), CHC-COL UNDER 12.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (42-24) at (954) PITTSBURGH (34-32)
Trend: PIT is 15-4 (+9.93 units) as a small favorite/pick ‘em (-136 to -110 line range) with starter Paul Skenes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-117 vs LAD)
(955) ST LOUIS (35-28) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (29-36)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 7-9 (-6.06 units) in his last 16 starts vs St Louis
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-131 vs STL)
(957) CHICAGO-NL (34-32) at (958) COLORADO (24-42)
Trend: CHC is 17-33 (-13.23 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at COL)
(959) CINCINNATI (31-34) at (960) SAN DIEGO (34-31)
Trend: Under the total is 21-13-2 (+6.70 units) in SD home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SD (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Lucas Giolito’s teams are 16-21 (-7.28 units) in his last 37 starts against the NL
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+104 vs CIN)
(961) WASHINGTON (34-33) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (27-40)
Trend: WSH is the most profitable team in MLB on the road this season (22-13 record, +18.29 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-108 at SF)
(963) SEATTLE (35-32) at (964) BALTIMORE (31-36)
Trend: Under the total is 12-6-1 (+5.40 units) when SEA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-BAL (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Trevor Rogers’ teams are 19-41 (-17.55 units) when he starts as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+103 vs SEA)
(965) BOSTON (27-37) at (966) TAMPA BAY (38-25)
Trend: TB is 13-4 (+9.28 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-101 vs BOS)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (39-26) at (968) CLEVELAND (37-31)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 34-7 (+17.04 units) when he starts vs AL Central opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE)
(969) MINNESOTA (30-37) at (970) DETROIT (27-39)
Trend: Over the total is 22-13-4 (+7.70 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-DET (o/u at 8.5)
(971) TEXAS (32-33) at (972) KANSAS CITY (27-39)
Trend: Under the total is 19-7-1 (+11.30 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-KC (o/u at 9.5)
(975) PHILADELPHIA (36-30) at (976) TORONTO (32-35)
Trend: Dylan Cease’s teams are only 10-10 (-6.32 units) when he starts as a home night favorite since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-111 vs PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, June 16)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Tuesday, June 9 appeared first on VSiN.
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