The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Playoffs First Round Game 3’s. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* In WC Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 18-24 SU but 30-12 ATS (71.4%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs DEN)

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* Favorites are on 12-1 SU and ATS surge in the last 13 of the CLE-TOR set at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at TOR)

* Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 44-20 SU and 40-22-2 ATS (64.5%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 27-9 SU and 24-10-2 ATS (70.6%) surge!
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 at ATL), SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 at POR)

First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 105-17 SU and 73-49 ATS (59.8%).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)

Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet – Only 13 of the last 63 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 50-13 SU and 40-22-1 ATS (64.5%).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI), OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)

With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last six postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 91-66-5 (58%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 78-72-2 (52%).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – NYK-ATL (o/u at 214.5), BOS-PHI (o/u at 215.5), LAL-HOU (o/u at 205.5), DET-ORL (o/u at 213.5), OKC-PHX (o/u at 214.5)

Last Game Trends

A long-standing trend of home teams being a better wager when coming off a win in a series has turned the last three playoff years. In fact, home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 33-27 SU but 23-37 ATS (38.3%). Those coming off a loss are 32-21 SU and 31-22 ATS (58.5%) in that same span. There is seemingly a huge reliance on the court edge. This 20.2% ATS swing is a good indication of how home court advantage can swing momentum in a series.
Trend Matches: PLAY – TORONTO (+2.5 vs CLE), HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAL), ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET), PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC)
FADE – ATLANTA (+1.5 vs NYK), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs DEN), PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs BOS), PORTLAND (+1.5 vs SAS)

Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 70-129 SU and 84-113-2 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI), ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET), PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC)

Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 44-20 SU and 40-22-2 ATS (64.5%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 27-9 SU and 24-10-2 ATS (70.6%) surge! Of note, only 18 of the last three seasons’ 129 first round games were decided by 3 points or fewer.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 at ATL), SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 at POR)

Teams that shoot 40% or less from the floor in a first round game have been lousy bets in the next contest, going 58-80-3 ATS (42%) since 2014.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI), ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET)

First Round Trends by Game Number

Game 3 point spreads most often tell the story, as hosts favored by 4.5-points or more are on an 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS (80%) stretch since 2013, while home dogs of 4.5 points or more are just 4-19 SU and 9-13-1 ATS (40.9%) in that same span.
Trend Matches: PLAY – HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAL)
FADE – PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs BOS), PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC)

Since you’re probably wondering at this point, game 3 home teams in the +4 to -4 line range are currently on a brutal skid of 10-20 SU and 9-20-1 ATS (31%) since 2017.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs NYK), TORONTO (+2.5 vs CLE), MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs DEN), PORTLAND (+1.5 vs SAS), ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET)

Trends by Seed Number

 #1 seeds are good bets when underrated – #1 seeds when in the small favorite (-2.5 or less) or underdog role are 10-7 SU and ATS (58.8%) since 2013 in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 12-5 Under the total (70.6%) in those games.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 at ORL)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ORL (o/u at 213.5)

#2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 75-19 SU and 58-36 ATS (61.7%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI)

#2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 24-4 SU and 22-6 ATS (78.6%) in their last 28, including 4-0 ATS a year ago.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 at POR)

 #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses – Third-seeded teams are on a run of 12-8 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) on the road after losing the prior game in a first round series.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 at ATL), DENVER (-2.5 at MIN)

#4 seeds have been brutal in games 3 and 4, with a 17-35 SU and 19-32-1 ATS (37.3%) record in such games of their first round series since 2013.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at TOR), LA LAKERS (+9.5 at HOU)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on the road in a 2 Days Rest scenario are 25-45 SU and 25-42-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Matches: FADE ALL EIGHT ROAD TEAMS IN GAME 3

* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 25-6 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches: PLAY OVER IN ALL EIGHT GAME 3’s

* CLEVELAND is just 21-22 SU and 14-29 ATS (32.6%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at TOR)

* BOSTON is 21-4 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
* PHILADELPHIA is 11-0 Under the total (100%) in Friday games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-PHI (o/u at 215.5)

* HOUSTON is 25-16 Under the total (61%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-HOU (o/u at 205.5)

* PHOENIX is 10-10 SU and 15-5 ATS (75%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG this season
* PHOENIX is 15-19 SU and 12-21 ATS playing in all 3rd in 8+ Days games since October 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE OF PHOENIX (+9.5 vs OKC)

* DETROIT is 17-9 Under the total (65.4%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ORL (o/u at 213.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Thursday, April 23, 2026

(527) NEW YORK at (528) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are 7-5 SU and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the Hawks-Knicks  set
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs NYK)

(529) CLEVELAND at (530) TORONTO
* Favorites are on 12-1 SU and ATS surge in the last 13 of the CLE-TOR set at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at TOR)

(531) DENVER at (532) MINNESOTA
* DENVER is 5-2 ATS in the last seven trips to Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 at MIN)

Friday, April 24, 2026

(535) BOSTON at (536) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams are on a 6-1 ATS surge in the last seven of the PHI-BOS  divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs BOS)

(537) LA LAKERS at (538) HOUSTON
* LA LAKERS are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight matchups with Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+9.5 at HOU)

(539) SAN ANTONIO at (540) PORTLAND
* Home teams are 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between Portland and San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 vs SAS)

Saturday, April 25, 2026

(541) DETROIT at (542) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games hosting Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs DET)

(543) OKLAHOMA CITY at (544) PHOENIX
* Over the total is 7-2 in the Thunder-Suns series since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-PHX (o/u at 214.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 192-69 SU and 152-108-1 ATS (58.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-9.5 vs LAL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 144-127 (53.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 363-294 (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR LAL-HOU and OKC-PHX

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

EC Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In EC Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 102-41 SU and 85-65-3 ATS (56.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI)

WC Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In WC Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 18-24 SU but 30-12 ATS (71.4%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+2.5 vs DEN)

WC Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In WC Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 14-9 SU but 7-16 ATS (30.4%) since the start of the 2024 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-2.5 at MIN)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 185-86 SU and 150-117-4 ATS (56.2%) (sub-system: 90-31 SU and 70-47-4 ATS (59.8%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at ATL), DENVER (-2.5 at MIN), BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI), SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 at POR)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 353-267 SU but 288-317-15 ATS (47.6%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 50-77-1 ATS (39.4%).
System Match (FADE ATS): PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs BOS)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 113-73 SU and 106-77-3 ATS (57.9%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-2.5 at MIN), BOSTON (-7.5 at PHI)

Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 65-40-1 (61.9%) in their last 106 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-PHI (o/u at 215.5)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 204-180 SU and 210-164-10 ATS (56.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs BOS)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 186-126 SU and 177-128-7 ATS (58%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-2.5 at ORL)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 101-71 SU and 103-68-1 ATS (60.2%) in their last 172 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+2.5 vs CLE), DETROIT (-2.5 at ORL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS FOR GAME 3s

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON, DETROIT

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DETROIT, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, ATLANTA ML, DENVER ML, BOSTON ML, HOUSTON ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, DETROIT ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-ATL, LAL-HOU, DET-ORL, OKC-PHX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – DEN-MIN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-PHI
UNDER – NYK-ATL, LAL-HOU, DET-ORL, OKC-PHX

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +2.5 (+3.2)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+2.5)
3. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 (+2.2)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -1.5 (+2.0)
2. HOUSTON -9.5 (+1.8)
3. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.3)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +2.5 (+2.4)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+0.8)
3. PORTLAND +1.5 (+0.1)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -2.5 (+0.7)
2. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.4)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+0.2)

BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-HOU OVER 205.5 (+2.8)
2. NYK-ATL OVER 214.5 (+0.7)
3. SAS-POR OVER 220.5 (+0.2)

BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-ORL UNDER 213.5 (-2.0)
2. BOS-PHI UNDER 215.5 (-0.5)
3. CLE-TOR UNDER 221.5 (-0.4)

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +2.5 (+4.0)
2. ATLANTA +1.5 (+2.7)
3. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 (+2.4)

Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -1.5 (+1.7)
2. HOUSTON -9.5 (+1.2)
3. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.4)

BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-ORL OVER 213.5 (+3.1)
2. LAL-HOU OVER 205.5 (+2.9)
3. OKC-PHX OVER 214.5 (+2.5)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOS-PHI UNDER 215.5 (-0.6)

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