The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/22 and 5/23. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 102-74 SU and 104-71-1 ATS (59.4%) in their last 176 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 vs OKC)

* In the conference finals, Game 3 teams that lost Game 2 by double-digits are on a surge of 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS (81.8%).
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs NYK)

* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Knicks-Cavs series at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CLE (o/u at 213.5)

Trends by Line Range

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 35 games in the last 11+ conference finals series that have seen totals in this range, and 25 of them have gone Over (71.4%).
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-CLE (o/u at 213.5)

Last Game Trends

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last five conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 31-25 SU and 35-20-1 ATS (63.6%) in their 56 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 24-14 Under (63.2%) the total in their next game.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 vs OKC), CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs NYK)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-SAS (o/u at 217.5)

Trends by Game Number

Teams that lost big in Game 2 bounce back well in Game 3 – An interesting trend that has developed over the last 11 playoff seasons finds that conference finals Game 3 teams that lost Game 2 by double-digits are on a surge of 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS (81.8%).
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs NYK)

Trends by Seed Number

#1 seeds struggle as small favorites and/or underdogs – In their last 41 conference finals games when playing as underdogs or favorites of 4.5-points or less, #1 seeds are just 17-28 SU and 17-27-1 ATS (38.6%).
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at SAS)

#1 seeds thrive after close wins – Top-seeded teams are on a 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) conference finals run when coming off a same series single-digit win.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at SAS)

#2 seeds are solid chalk wagers – Conference finals #2 seeds are on a 31-15 SU and 26-20 ATS (56.5%) run as favorites.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 vs OKC)

#3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 11-31 SU and 14-26-2 ATS (35%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in their L33 road conference finals games.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+2.5 at CLE)

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same-series game, going 20-16 SU and 23-12-1 ATS (65.7%) in their last 36 tries.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs NYK)

#3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 11-24 SU and 12-22-1 ATS (35.3%) in the follow-up contest.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+2.5 at CLE)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 105-22 SU and 74-50-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+1.5 at SAS)

* CLEVELAND is just 27-30 SU and 19-38 ATS (33.3%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs NYK)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 67-30 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-SAS (o/u at 217.5), NYK-CLE (o/u at 213.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:

Friday, May 22, 2026

(551) OKLAHOMA CITY at (552) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups with OKC
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 vs OKC)
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the set at San Antonio as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-SAS (o/u at 217.5)

Saturday, May 23, 2026

(553) NEW YORK at (554) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Knicks-Cavs series at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CLE (o/u at 213.5)
* Home teams are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the overall set as well
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs NYK)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 102-74 SU and 104-71-1 ATS (59.4%) in their last 176 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 vs OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 84-113-1 ATS (42.6%) in the next game, including 40-58 ATS (40.8%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+2.5 at CLE)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Friday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, CLEVELAND

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DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-SAS, NYK-CLE

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +2.5 (+2.6)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY +1.5 (+0.6)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +2.5 (+2.1)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY +1.5 (+0.6)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-CLE OVER 213.5 (+1.6)
2. OKC-SAS OVER 217.5 (+0.5)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +2.5 (+1.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY +1.5 (+0.9)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-CLE OVER 213.5 (+1.8)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-SAS UNDER 217.5 (-1.0)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Friday, May 22 and Saturday, May 23 appeared first on VSiN.