The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/8 and 5/9. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points have had their follow-up contest totals go Under at a 14-1 (93.3%) rate in the last 15 instances.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-MIN (o/u at 216.5)

* Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 21-9 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%) record over the last five postseasons.
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs NYK)

* UNDER the total is 15-3 in the last 18 of the Cavs-Pistons h2h divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 211.5)

Trends by Line/Total Range

Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 22-12 SU but just 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 75-52-1 ATS (59.1%) in that span.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs NYK), CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs DET)

Second round smaller road favorites of -4.5 or fewer (or pick ’em) have struggled over the last decade-plus, having gone 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS (34.1%) since 2013.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN)

Last Game Trends

Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 34-17 ATS (66.7%) since 2021, including 11-4 ATS since the start of last playoffs.
Trend Matches: PLAY ON ALL FOUR HOME TEAMS FOR GAME 3

Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 21-9 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%) record over the last five postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 29-1 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs NYK)

There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 40-25-1 Under (61.5%) the total in the last 66.
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-NYK (o/u at 214.5), DET-CLE (o/u at 211.5)

Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 8-13 SU and 5-16 ATS (23.8%) in the follow-up contest. Fourteen of the last 15 of those games have also gone Under the total (93.3%).
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-MIN (o/u at 216.5)

Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 25-30-1 ATS (45.5%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs DET)

Trends by Game Number

Home teams are 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS (56.3%) in the last 16 game 3s, turning around a trend of 6-14 ATS over the prior five non-neutral playoff seasons. 
Trend Matches: PLAY ON ALL FOUR HOME TEAMS FOR GAME 3

Change of venue has changed scoring trend recently – with more game 2s going Over than not, the scoring pace slows for game 3s, as they are 23-9 Under (71.9%) in the last 32.
Trend Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL FOUR GAME 3’s

In the last 19 game 3s featuring one of the teams up 2-0 already in the series, 15 have gone Under the total (78.9%).
Trend Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-PHI (o/u at 214.5), DET-CLE (o/u at 211.5), OKC-LAL (o/u at 211.5)

Trends by Seed Number

#1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last 5 postseasons, going 10-13 SU and 7-16 ATS (30.4%) in the last 23 tries when coming off a same series win.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+4.5 at CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 at LAL)

#1 seeds are on a 6-16 SU and 9-13 ATS (40.9%) skid as underdogs in the second round.
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+4.5 at CLE)

#3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 41-24-1 (63.1%) in the last 66.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-PHI (o/u at 214.5)

Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 15 of their last 44 games while going 17-27 ATS (38.6%).
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+1.5 at PHI)

Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 18-44 SU and 25-36-1 ATS (41%) as such since 2015.
Trend Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+8.5 vs OKC)

Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 14-27 SU and 17-24 ATS (41.5%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.
Trend Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs DET), LA LAKERS (+8.5 vs OKC)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 66-27 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-PHI (o/u at 214.5), SAS-MIN (o/u at 216.5), OKC-LAL (o/u at 211.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 12-0 Under the total (100%) in Friday games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-PHI (o/u at 214.5)

* SAN ANTONIO is 19-19 SU and 14-24 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIN)

* DETROIT is 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS (86.7%) as an underdog this season
* CLEVELAND is just 23-27 SU and 15-35 ATS (30%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+4.5 at CLE)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 102-22 SU and 72-49-3 ATS playing in all OneDayRest games since Apr 2024
* LA LAKERS are 43-16 SU and 40-19 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since Jan 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY, 1 PLAY ON LA LAKERS

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:

Friday, May 8, 2026

(571) NEW YORK at (572) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are on 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS run in the PHI-NYK h2h divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+1.5 at PHI)

(573) SAN ANTONIO at (574) MINNESOTA
* Over the total has converted in five of the last seven meetings between MIN and SAS
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 216.5)

Saturday, May 9, 2026

(501) DETROIT at (502) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 15-3 in the last 18 of the Cavs-Pistons divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 211.5)

(503) OKLAHOMA CITY at (504) LA LAKERS
* OKLAHOMA CITY is on an 8-1 SU and ATS surge against LAL since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 at LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 192-71 SU and 152-110-1 ATS (58%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs DET)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 106-43 SU and 87-69-3 ATS (55.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs NYK)

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 27-20 Over (57.4%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CLE (o/u at 211.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Playoff large wins also lead to Unders
In the playoffs, NBA teams off a 30-point win have had their next game totals go Under at a 31-16-1 (66%) rate in the last five seasons (games also include if the previous game was in regular season).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-MIN (o/u at 216.5)

Unusual shooting performance system
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 365-368 SU and 334-391-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+4.5 at CLE)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 102-74 SU and 104-71-1 ATS (59.4%) in their last 176 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MINNESOTA vs SAS (+4.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 108-25 SU and 73-57-3 ATS (56.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 at LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

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One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Friday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, CLEVELAND ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML

Game 3s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW YORK +1.5 (+2.5)
DETROIT +4.5 (+2.5)
3. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+2.1)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +1.5 (+5.5)
2. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.3)
3. DETROIT +4.5 (+0.8)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+1.4)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-PHI OVER 214.5 (+0.9)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-LAL UNDER 211.5 (-0.4)
2. DET-CLE UNDER 211.5 (-0.3)

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +4.5 (+2.6)
2. NEW YORK +1.5 (+2.3)
3. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.2)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-MIN OVER 216.5 (+4.1)
2. DET-CLE OVER 211.5 (+2.4)
3. OKC-LAL OVER 211.5 (+1.4)
TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Match: NYK-PHI UNDER 214.5 (-1.1)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Friday, May 8 and Saturday, May 9 appeared first on VSiN.