The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA Western Conference finals game on Tuesday, May 26. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Favorites are on a huge Game 5 run – Teams laying the points have gone 16-4 SU and ATS (80%) in conference finals’ Game 5s.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 167-62 SU and 135-92-2 ATS (59.5%) in their last 229 tries.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

Last Game Trend

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals.Over the last five conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 32-28 SU and 36-23-1 ATS (61%) in their 60 follow-up games.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

Trends by Game Number

Simply put, the better seeds win Game 5sThe better-seeded teams have dominated the Game 5 action in conference finals series of late, going 15-5 SU and ATS (75%) since 2013. In all 20 of those games, the outright winner covered the point spread as well.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

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Favorites are on a huge Game 5 run
Teams laying the points have gone 16-4 SU and ATS (80%) in conference finals Game 5s.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

The team that lost Game 4 is a solid Game 5 play
Teams that lost Game 4 are on a 13-7 SU and ATS (65%) run in Game 5 of the conference finals.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

Trends by Seed Number

No. 1 seeds struggle as small favorites and/or underdogs
In their last 41 conference finals games when playing as underdogs or favorites of 4.5 points or less, No. 1 seeds are just 18-29 SU and 18-28-1 ATS (39.1%).
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

No. 1 seeds are solid bets late in a series
In their last 21 Games 5-7, No. 1 seeds are 15-9 SU and ATS (62.5%), with outright winners going a perfect 24-0 ATS in those games.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* SAN ANTONIO is 20-21 SU and 15-26 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 51-9 SU and 40-19-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

(559) SAN ANTONIO at (560) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Spurs-Thunder rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-SAS (o/u at 217.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 196-74 SU and 156-113-1 ATS (58%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L5 seasons unless noted.

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 167-62 SU and 135-92-2 ATS (59.5%) in their last 229 tries.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-4.5 vs. SAS)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have performed well the next game as well, going 190-130 SU and 179-134-7 ATS (57.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at OKC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at OKC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at OKC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO ML (+142 at OKC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAS-OKC (o/u at 217.5)

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+1.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+1.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Match: SAS-OKC UNDER 217.5 (-2.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5 (+2.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-OKC OVER 217.5 (+1.4)

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