The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/20 and 5/21. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Over the last five conference finals seasons, teams that lost the previous game by single digits are 24-13 Under (64.9%) the total in their next game.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 217.5)

Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-24 SU and 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contest.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

Trends by Line Range

Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2018 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5 points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 23-15 SU and 15-22-1 ATS (40.5%).

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 33 games in the last 11 conference finals series that have seen totals in this range, and 24 of them have gone Over (72.7%).
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

Last Game Trends

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last five conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 30-24 SU and 34-19-1 ATS (64.2%) in their 54 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 24-13 Under (64.9%) the total in their next game.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs SAS), CLEVELAND (+6.5 at NYK)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 217.5)

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Trends by Game Number

Home teams that won the opening game usually win Game Twos as well – The last 13 conference finals Game Two home teams that won Game One are 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS (61.5%) in the follow-up contest.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

Trends by Seed Number

Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 32-4 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs SAS)

#2 seeds are tempting as large dogs, but they have struggled – #2 seeded teams are on a slide of 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS as underdogs of 5 points or more in the conference finals series over the last 11 years.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at OKC)

#3/4 seeds are solid in the big favorite role – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds are on a 13-9 SU and ATS (59.1%) run as favorites of 3.5 points or more.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

#3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 11-30 SU and 14-25-2 ATS (35.9%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 12-20 ATS (37.5%) in their last 32 road conference finals games.
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 at NYK)

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 20-15 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) in their last 35 tries.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+6.5 at NYK)

#3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 10-24 SU and 11-22-1 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contest.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing at home in OneDayRest scenario are 67-29 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 217.5)

* SAN ANTONIO is 20-20 SU and 15-25 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 50-9 SU and 39-19-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs SAS)

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 89-46 SU and 77-54-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs SAS), NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

* CLEVELAND is just 27-29 SU and 19-37 ATS (33.9%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 at NYK)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

(547) SAN ANTONIO at (548) OKLAHOMA CITY
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups with OKC
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at OKC)
* Under the total has converted five of the last six in the series at Oklahoma City as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-OKC (o/u at 217.5)

Thursday, May 21, 2026

(549) CLEVELAND at (550) NEW YORK
* CLEVELAND is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in meetings with New York since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+6.5 at NYK)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 194-74 SU and 154-113-1 ATS (57.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 vs SAS), NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 83-113-1 ATS (42.3%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at OKC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at OKC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and a ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs CLE)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML (-238 vs SAS), NEW YORK (-225 vs CLE)

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+2.1)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK -6.5 (+0.4)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+0.9)
2. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+0.1)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-NYK OVER 215.5 (+2.6)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-OKC UNDER 217.5 (-1.4)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+0.8)
2. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+0.4)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-NYK OVER 215.5 (+2.0)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-OKC UNDER 217.5 (-1.1)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Wednesday, May 20 and Thursday, May 21 appeared first on VSiN.