The NBA first round provided a little more drama than usual. The good news: Underdogs and worse-seeded teams won more games than we usually see. The bad news: Only four of the playoffs’ first 48 games were decided by 3 points or fewer, and two of those were from a single series. So, in essence, while the series were a little more competitive, on a game-by-game basis, it was not. From a betting side, it was the usual mix of big favorites covering, blowouts were not uncommon, and there were a lot more Unders than Overs on totals, including nine straight Unders at one point. The Zig-Zag theory, which I pointed out in my first round betting article from a couple of weeks ago, also continued to fare well. Hopefully, you caught that piece, as many of the key trends and systems continued to excel. With that in mind, I’m now here to present the information you’re going to want to consider as we move on to the second round.

Thankfully, the competitiveness tends to ramp up in parallel with the stakes, and when the second round tips off, it should present four fairly intriguing matchups. In fact, two of last year’s second round series wound up being seed upsets, following a 2024 playoff in which there were three such upsets.

Before getting into the specific trends, I mentioned two upsets a year ago, so you should know that the percentage of series upsets in the second round is actually much higher than the first. If you recall, only 21 out of 104 lower-seeded teams, or 20.2%, were able to pull off upsets in the first round. In the second round, it has been 18 out of the last 48, or 37.5%, almost two times the amount. There have been 10 teams seeded worse than 3rd to pull off this feat, most recently, the Pacers (both over New York in 2024 and Cleveland in 2025). It has now happened eight times in the last five years, with six victims being #1 seeds. In all, there have been seven #1 seeds to lose a series in this round in the last eight playoff seasons, and last year, Cleveland was ousted, and OKC was also pushed to seven games.

As I reasoned in the first round article from a couple weeks back, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season.

There have been 15 second round series over the last 11 playoff seasons to last five games or less, only three in upset fashion. In all but two of those 15 series, the winning team won at least 50 games in the regular season.

There have been 21 second round series over the last 11 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within five of one another. Those series have been essentially toss-ups, with the higher-seeded team winning 11 times (70 individual wins) and the lower seed winning 10 times (60 individual wins).

In the 23 other series where the regular season won-lost total is +6 or higher for the better seed, that team is 15-8 in series wins and 74-53 in individual wins. The two most recent of those eight series losses occurred in 2025, when Indiana beat Cleveland 4-1, and New York took down Boston 4-2.

Excluding the results of the 2020 season, which had a shortened regular season and postseason played entirely in Orlando, 53 regular season wins is a good benchmark for projecting success in the second round. Teams that won 52 games or fewer, when taking on teams that won 53 games or more, are just 11-19 in series and 71-99 in individual games since 2015. However, the 2024 and 2025 playoffs may be signaling a turning of the tide on this trend, as we’ve had four series wins by lesser teams in that timeframe.

There is an advantage to playing shorter series in the first round. Teams that played two or more fewer games in the first round boast a second round series record of 9-3 since 2015, with an individual game mark of 43-23.

It has been somewhat of a detriment for a second round team to be pushed to seven games in the first round. These teams are 5-8 in series and 34-41 in individual games since 2015. Heading into this season, only six first round series over the previous five playoff seasons went the distance.

Don’t overestimate situations when the worst-seeded team had a better second half regular season record, since they have only won once in their last eight series, going 16-31 in individual games.

Similarly, worse seeded teams that had better ATS records in the regular season haven’t fared that well either. They are on a 4-15 slide in series record with a 37-67 mark in individual games.

It was in the 2016-17 season in which scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven to be that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 136-31 SU and 129-37-1 ATS (77.7%).

Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 27-125 SU and 34-117-1 ATS (22.5%) over the L9 seasons.

Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 18-11 SU but just 8-21 ATS (38.1%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 72-52-1 ATS (58.1%) in that span.

Second round smaller road favorites of -4.5 or fewer (or pick ’em) have struggled over the last decade-plus, having gone 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS (34.1%) since 2013.

The number 220 has been key on totals over the last six years in the second round of the playoffs. On totals of 220.5 or higher since 2018, Under has gone 41-22-1 (65.1%!), including 17-4 when 227.5 or higher!

Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 15-29 SU and 18-26 ATS (40.9%) in the follow-up contests in their last 39 playoff tries. However, these teams are 11-6 ATS in the last two years’ upset-riddled second rounds.

Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 33-17 ATS (66%) since 2021, including 10-4 ATS a year ago.

Close losses have been galvanizing for teams lately in the second round, as those losing by 6 points or fewer in one game follow that up with a 20-9 SU and 21-8 ATS (72.4%) record over the last five postseasons. Furthermore, outright winners are 28-1 ATS in these games, meaning they have been decisive.

There is a very interesting totals trend that has developed lately in competitive contests, as when games have been decided by 10-points or fewer, the follow-up second round same series game is 39-24-1 Under (61.9%) the total in the last 64.

Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 7-13 SU and 5-15 ATS (25%) in the follow-up contest. Thirteen of the last 14 of those games have also gone Under the total (92.9%).

Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 25-30-1 ATS (45.5%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.

Embed from Getty Images

Including a 0-4 SU and ATS record in 2025, second round home teams haven’t performed anywhere near the level of the first round in game 1s lately, as they are just 26-22 SU and 21-26-1 ATS (44.7%) since 2013. There have only been two recent road favorites.

Over the total is now 21-14-1 in the last 36 (60%) non-neutral game 1s of the second round NBA playoffs.

After last year’s four big home favorites of 6-points or more went 0-4 SU and ATS, those teams are now on a 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS (33.3%) skid.

Upsets have also occurred in game 1’s with lines of -5.5 or less – favorites of 5.5 points or less are on an 8-19 SU and 5-21-1 ATS (19.2%) skid.

Game 2 home teams were just 2-2 SU and ATS in the 2025 second round to drop their five-year record to 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%).

Smaller home favorites get it done in game 2s – Home favorites of 7 points or less have gone 19-5 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in their last 24 chances.

Home teams are 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS (56.3%) in the last 16 game 3s, turning around a trend of 6-14 ATS over the prior five non-neutral playoff seasons.

Change of venue has changed scoring trend recently – with more game 2s going Over than not, the scoring pace slows for game 3s, as they are 23-9 Under (71.9%) in the last 32.

In the last 19 game 3s featuring one of the teams up 2-0 already in the series, 15 have gone Under the total (78.9%).

Oddsmakers pave the road for game 4 profits – An interesting trend that has developed over the last nine playoff seasons finds that second round game 4 favorites are on a surge of 30-13 SU and 24-18-1 ATS (57.1%).

Game 3 winners have most often become game 4 winners as well, as they are 15-6 SU and ATS (71.4%) in their last 21 tries.

Teams up in the series are just 17-23 SU and 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) in their last 40 game 4 tries.

Expect game 5s to be tight – Favorites are 34-13 SU but just 22-25 ATS (46.8%) since 2013. This is a significant win/no cover percentage of games. In these contests with lines of 5.5 points or more, they are just 12-19 ATS (38.7%).

Teams that lost big in game 4, by 7 points or more, come back very competitively in game 5, going 16-10 SU and 19-7 ATS (73.1%) in their last 26 tries.

Game 6s have swung towards underdogs, 16-14 SU and 19-11 ATS (63.3%) since 2014.

Eleven of the last 16 (68.8%) game 6s that have been played in the last five playoff seasons have gone Under the total.

Favorites have been far from automatic lately in game 7s, going just 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS (38.5%) in their last 13 tries, although OKC did whip Denver 125-93 in 2025 with the series on the line.

Winning game 6 has provided a good boost for game 7, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) in their last 13 chances.

Not surprisingly, Unders are the wager of choice in game 7s lately, 9-6 in the last 15 (60%).

After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 55-45 SU and 46-53-1 ATS (46.5%) in their last 100 second round playoff games.

#1 seeds are on a 15-8 SU and 13-10 ATS (56.5%) at home in the last five seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.

#1 seeds have failed to build on second round momentum in the last five postseasons, going 8-13 SU and 5-16 ATS (23.8%) in the last 21 tries when coming off a same series win.

#1 seeds are on a 6-16 SU and 9-13 ATS (40.9%) skid as underdogs in the second round.

 #2 seeds have been very competitive in the underdog role in the second round, going 23-21 SU and 29-15 ATS (65.9%) in that role since 2015.

#2 seeds have not closed out opponents well in the second round, going just 6-14 SU and 4-16 ATS (20%) when given that chance since 2018.

#3 seeds have meant Unders in second round games of late, 40-23-1 (63.5%) in the last 64.

Teams seeded at #3 in the NBA playoffs have been awful on the road in the second round of late, winning just 15 of their last 44 games while going 17-27 ATS (38.6%).

#3 seeds are on a phenomenal second round run of 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) when trying to stave off elimination in a series.

Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 18-40 SU and 25-32-1 ATS (43.9%) as such since 2015. However, they were 7-5 SU and 9-3 last year in this role.

The last 14 #4 seeds trying to fend off elimination in a second round series are just 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS (41.2%).

Losses compound for #4 seeds in the second round, as they are just 14-25 SU and 17-22 ATS (43.6%) coming back after a same series defeat since 2014.

Upset winners of the first round don’t win much in second round, with teams seeded #5 or worse going 25-38 SU and 31-32 ATS (49.2%) in their second round games over the last 11 seasons when not matched up against another upset winner. Last year, the two upset winners faced one another.

First round upset winners are also brutal as large underdogs, as teams seeded 5th or lower have gone 4-33 SU and 14-23 ATS (37.8%) when playing as dogs of 6 points or more. Included in that is a 0-7 SU and ATS record at home.

Winning doesn’t provide a whole lot of momentum for the second round teams “not supposed to be there,” as they are just 14-23 SU and ATS (37.8%) when coming off a same series victory since 2013.

Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (12-12 ATS in the last 24) as compared to at home (10-15 ATS in the last 25).

There is a certain level of pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite in a closeout game. Teams looking to finish a series and favored by 5.5 points or more are 20-10 SU but just 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) since 2013.

Teams looking to close out a series in game 6 have struggled, going just 10-14 SU and 9-15 ATS (37.5%) in their last 24 opportunities, including 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS (27.3%) as chalk.

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Playoff Second Round Top Betting Trends appeared first on VSiN.