Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Date: October 20th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN

To get things started on this Monday night, we’ll be treated to a matchup between two of the best teams in the NFC this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this game with a 5-1 record, and their offense has looked incredible. From a statistical standpoint, the Buccaneers come in ranked 11th in the NFL in yards per game (353.5) and 6th in points per game (27.5). Defensively, things haven’t looked quite as strong—particularly in the secondary—but this unit ranks 15th in yards allowed per game (319.5) and 22nd in points allowed per game (25.2). Detroit enters this one with a 4-2 record after being stunned by the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The Lions also bring one of the best offenses in the NFL, ranking 10th in yards per game (353.7) and 2nd in points per game (31.8). Defensively, things haven’t been bad by any means, ranking 9th in yards allowed per game (308.2) but 20th in points allowed per game (23.7). These teams should match up well against one another and could be part of a pivotal moment in the season when we look back at the NFC playoff picture at season’s end.

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Betting Overview

When this game opened to the betting public, we saw the Lions listed as around a 3.5 to 4.5-point favorite, but they’re now around a 6 to 6.5-point favorite depending on the book. Similar movement has been seen in the moneyline, with Tampa opening at +150 and now sitting around +220 to +230, while Detroit opened at -180 and currently sits between -260 and -280. The total has also jumped from its original line of 49.5, as we now see it between 52.5 and 53.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Both of these teams saw coordinators get poached last offseason, yet neither has really missed a beat. Dan Campbell has shown slightly more consistency throughout his tenure in Detroit, giving him and his team a slight advantage here.

DLs vs. OLs: In spite of the 5-1 record the Buccaneers have, it hasn’t been because of the offensive or defensive line. Detroit has been much stronger up front on both sides of the ball, giving them the edge here.

QBs: What Baker Mayfield has been able to do up to this point in the NFL season has been nothing short of incredible. He has managed to throw for 256.5 yards per game and has only 1 interception on the season. Last season, the only question mark for Mayfield was whether he could be smarter with the football, and he has answered those questions in emphatic fashion.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: The Lions have been better in all three of these areas. Their run game ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per game (128.7). From a tight end standpoint, none of these players have been particularly impressive, but Sam LaPorta has been a better option for this Lions team. The off-ball linebackers have also been stronger in Detroit.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Neither of these secondaries has been particularly impressive, and the Lions seem to be dealing with more injuries on that front. Both wide receiver rooms are solid, but the Bucs are also battling injuries. If Mike Evans is able to go tonight, I’d give the Bucs the edge here; if not, it’s still pretty even.

Betting Trends

We saw these teams play last season in Detroit, a game the Buccaneers won and covered. That matchup was also relatively low scoring, as the under 51.5 hit in a 20-16 contest.

Tampa Bay is now 4-2 ATS on the season, with a 3-0 record on the road—all three of those games coming as underdogs. We’ve also seen more overs in Buccaneers games, hitting in four of their six matchups so far. On the road, however, the under has actually been more favorable, cashing in two of those three games.

Detroit also holds a 4-2 record ATS this season, with a 2-0 mark at home, and a 3-0 record as a favorite. Totals have been more balanced, splitting three overs and three unders to this point. We also haven’t seen a lean either way at home, as those games have split one apiece.

Final Thoughts

Many in the public are predicting a higher-scoring game, based on the stronger offenses we’ve seen from these teams compared to their defenses. I think we’ll get a game closer to what we saw last season, when Tampa narrowly won in a low-scoring matchup. I’m not saying Tampa will win this one, but I do like them to cover and the under to hit.