Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Date: November 6th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

Following a few weeks of non-divisional games on Thursday night, we get an AFC West matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos. This past weekend, the Raiders lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in gut-wrenching fashion, dropping their record to 2-6. Things have been quite difficult for this Raiders team, especially as of late, but they did show a bit of a spark last week with the return of Brock Bowers. On the season, the Raiders’ offense ranks 30th in yards per game (283.3) and 29th in points per game (16.5). The defense hasn’t been much better, ranking 19th in yards allowed per game (333.4) and 23rd in points allowed per game (26.3).

Denver’s game last week also came down to the wire, as they narrowly beat the Houston Texans to extend their win streak to six and improve their overall record to 7-2. The Bo Nix-led offense has been solid, ranking 13th in yards per game (347.3) and 14th in points per game (25). Defensively, Denver has been outstanding, ranking 3rd in yards allowed per game (279.9) and 4th in points allowed per game (18.4).

While this matchup is intriguing from a divisional standpoint, it doesn’t draw a ton of attention given how poor the Raiders have been this season. In year one under Pete Carroll, things have gone mostly as expected, but at least this team continues to show some fight—and hopefully, we’ll see that again this week in Denver.

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Weather

Temperatures for this game will be cool but not unbearable, sitting in the low to mid-40s. There is a 0% chance of precipitation, and winds shouldn’t be much of an issue, averaging around 4 mph with gusts up to 9 mph.

Betting Overview

In the preseason, this game opened around -6.5 in favor of Denver, climbed as high as -10.5, and now sits between -8.5 and -9.5. For moneyline value, the best current price for Las Vegas is +400, while Denver sits at -450. The total has dipped slightly, opening at 43.5 and now settling between 41.5 and 42.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: While Pete Carroll proved to be a great coach in Seattle, he hasn’t had much of a chance to show that yet in Las Vegas. Sean Payton is also a proven coach in his own right and has completely turned this Broncos team around, giving him and his staff the edge in this one.

DLs vs. OLs: One of the biggest reasons Denver has been such a strong team is how dominant they’ve been in the trenches. The Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, paired with a solid and consistent defensive line. The Raiders, on the other hand, aren’t particularly strong on either side of the line.

QBs: Geno Smith hasn’t been the same quarterback he was during his time in Seattle the past few years, while Bo Nix has picked up right where he left off last season. Nix hasn’t necessarily lit the world on fire, but he’s done everything required to get Denver to this point. The same can’t be said for Geno Smith.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is a very even matchup. I’d give the nod to the Raiders on the offensive side of this position battle, though the Broncos clearly have the better linebacker room. Overall, I’d give a slight edge to Las Vegas here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Neither of these teams features a standout receiving group, though Denver’s is stronger overall. The Broncos also hold the advantage in the secondary, giving them the overall edge on the outside.

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 matchups between these division rivals, the Raiders have won 8 of 10 and covered in 7 of those games. The over has been slightly more common, hitting in 6 of 10. It’s worth noting that Denver has won and covered the last two meetings, with the over cashing in both as well.

The Raiders haven’t been a strong ATS team this year, sitting at 3-5 overall and 1-3 on the road. After two divisional games, they’ve yet to cover. Through eight games, the under has been more frequent, hitting in five. The under has also hit in two of their three road games and in both divisional matchups.

Denver has yet to have a bye week, so they’ve played nine games, posting a 4-5 ATS record. At home, they’re 2-2 and 0-1 in the division. The under has hit in six of nine games overall, while the total has split 2-2 at home. The under also hit in Denver’s lone divisional game this season.

Final Thoughts

This game certainly appears lopsided in favor of the Broncos, but it’s important to factor in that this is a divisional matchup. I expect Las Vegas to play similarly to how they did last week against Jacksonville, which should allow them to cover the current spread. As for the total, I’d lean slightly toward the under in this one.