Game: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Date: October 30th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

This week’s Thursday night game doesn’t present the most exciting matchup, featuring a pair of two-win teams in the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. Both teams are coming off their first victories in a few weeks — most notably the Dolphins, who routed the Falcons this past Sunday. In the absence of Lamar Jackson and several key defensive players, the Ravens have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they rank 21st in total yards per game (315.7) and 14th in points per game (24.9). Defensively, they sit 28th in yards allowed per game (379.6) and 30th in points allowed per game (30.0).

The Dolphins have faced similar issues, ranking 28th in total yards per game (286.4) and 21st in points per game (21.8). On defense, they’re 23rd in yards allowed per game (344.4) and 26th in points allowed (26.9). Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable for this game, and his availability could very well be the deciding factor on Thursday night. Let’s dive into some betting insights and positional matchups for this AFC showdown.

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Weather

With this game being played in Miami, weather shouldn’t be much of a factor, as temperatures will sit in the mid-to-high 60s throughout. There’s only a 1% chance of rain, and wind could play a minor role, averaging around 7 mph with gusts up to 16 mph.

Betting Overview

This game opened with the Ravens listed as 5.5-point favorites, but the line has since moved to -7.5 across most sportsbooks. We’ve seen a similar shift on the moneyline, as Baltimore opened at -225 and now sits around -400, while Miami opened at +185 and has drifted to the +300 to +320 range. The total has also climbed from its initial mark of 47.5 to between 49.5 and 50.5, depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This coaching matchup isn’t particularly close. John Harbaugh and his staff, even in a down year, have remained one of the most consistent and well-prepared groups in the NFL. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have dealt with various coaching issues and stretches where players haven’t fully bought in.

DLs vs. OLs: This is a fairly even battle, though not necessarily for good reasons. Both offensive lines have been average at best, with Miami grading slightly higher overall. Defensively, both lines have ranked near the bottom of the league this season. The Dolphins get a slight edge up front, but it’s a narrow one.

QBs: This matchup is tough to evaluate without confirmation on Lamar Jackson’s status. If he plays, he’s clearly the superior quarterback. If not, Tua Tagovailoa gets the advantage by default.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Baltimore’s linebacking corps has been banged up, but the return of Roquan Smith last week made an immediate impact against Chicago. The Ravens also hold the edge in the other two areas — they have the stronger tight end group and the better backfield overall.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Despite Miami’s defensive struggles, their secondary remains one of the stronger units on the team. Neither receiving corps stands out in this matchup, but the Dolphins’ group is slightly better overall — even without Tyreek Hill.

Betting Trends

Baltimore enters this matchup with a 2-5 record against the spread (ATS) this season, including 0-2 on the road — both of those being games where they were favored. The Ravens haven’t performed well in conference play either, going 1-3 in AFC matchups. What they have done is hit overs at a high rate, largely due to their defensive struggles. The over has hit in 6 of 7 games overall, including both on the road and all four within the conference.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, sit at an even 4-4 ATS this year, with a 3-3 record in AFC games. At home, they’ve been stronger, going 2-1 ATS, and they’re 1-0 as a home underdog. Much like Baltimore, Miami games have leaned heavily toward the over — it’s hit in 6 of 8, including all three at home and 5 of 6 against AFC opponents.

Final Thoughts

With how sporadic this Dolphins team can be, this matchup is difficult to bet. With the way the lines are moving, it seems like a good indicator that we’ll see Lamar Jackson back under center. If that’s the case, I would lean in favor of the Ravens covering this week and the current total hitting the over.