The Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas is the host for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. The fight slate consists of 12 fights to be waged in the Apex’s 25-foot octagon and in front of a limited group of attendees.

Of the 12 fights, seven take place at 115, 125 and 135 pounds, and only three will be waged at weight classes 170 pounds and above.

It’s becoming clear that APEX events host lesser-known personalities and smaller-bodied fighters, which surely, by the numbers, reduces the opportunity for violent finishes. 

There are nine US fighters populating the card, with 13 athletes having to travel into the United States from out of the country. Three fights feature a fighter from the US who competes against a combatant who must travel into the USA in order to cut weight, then compete. 

Main event participant Belal Muhammad, Jordan Leavitt, and Chelsea Chandler are the fighters holding some home advantage as each of their foes must travel in from Brazil in order to compete. Advantage US athletes. 

Last week, we used Alex Perez in his fight against Su Mudaerji as a slight chalk, but the bout was stopped after a damaging kick to the jewels by Su rendered Perez unable to continue. 

We’ll tote our momentum forward into this slate of battles.

Belal Muhammad -125 vs. Gabriel Bonfim +105 

Welterweight (170 pounds) main event

Bonfim, one of two brothers competing in the UFC, is a fighter with complete skills, though no belts, ribbons, or accolades. 

Bonfim is a power striker/kicker who is athletic, fluid afoot, and highly dangerous. He packs profuse power behind his strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees. 

In this battle, Bonfim will hold a substantial eight-year youth advantage to go with his height and leg reach edge. Bonfim’s grappling/wrestling is pronounced. Together with his aggression/size/power, it makes him a matchup nightmare for almost every welterweight on the roster. 

In former champion Belal Muhammad, we have a world-class wrestling talent. Muhammad has lost his last two fights to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry, but he was competitive in each despite the fact that he fought an unintelligent title fight against JDM, choosing to strike with a striker as opposed to grinding him out on the canvas with his advanced wrestling ability. 

In his fight against Machado Garry, Muhammad was simply unable to catch up to the nimble, deft moving Irishman. When forging forward in his deliberate, unrelenting wrestling style, Muhammad can make a strong, motivated adversary eventually look overwhelmed, lost, weak and timid.

When the bell for this fight rings, I look for Muhammad, who has not competed in the cage since November of 2025, to immediately turn to his advantage in almost any matchup: his wrestling.

As I have mentioned several times in this column, world-class wrestling is kryptonite to world-class BJJ. While Bonfim is hardly a world-class jiu-jitsu specialist, he does fold the specialty into his power striking. 

Bonfim will strive to maintain an appropriate distance in order to unleash power hooks, crosses, and knees onto Muhammad as Muhammad forcefully grinds his way inside the pocket to engage in his wrestling. 

Muhammad must be able to persevere his way through the furious early Bonfim fire of fisticuffs in the early stages of this fight. That is when Bonfim’s ferocity and striking acumen are most effective.

When Muhammad manages this bout into the third round and beyond, we will witness a change of dominance. Bonfim’s burst will begin to wane while Muhammad’s forward pressure and top control will transition this fight from a relatively competitive one to a relatively non-competitive one. Muhammad’s ultimate advantage is his ability to never tire and become more forceful as the fight extends. 

Yes, Muhammad is 37 and giving up eight years to this young Bonfim bomber, but Muhammad’s cardio, his wrestling, and his mental strength are all world-class assets that will allow him to separate himself from Bonfim as this fight enters the third round and beyond. 

This is a terrific spot for Belal Muhammad

UFC Vegas 118 Best Bet: Belal Muhammad -120 2u

Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -190

Strong lean Over, especially if lined 3.5 Rds.

Brendan Allen -220 vs. Edmen Shabazyan +180

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Middleweight (185 pounds) co-main

Shahbazyan, a Black belt in Shotokan Karate, is a power striker who trains in Las Vegas at Extreme Couture. 

Shahbazyan is tall for the weight class, and though he is ill-equipped to deal with adversaries displaying world-class wrestling/grappling, he is well armed to undergo slugfests that take place on the feet, as his height, reach, and distance control are exemplary. 

In Brendan Allen, we have a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ. 

Allen is well-balanced as a fighter, but his striking is not at the level of his world-class grappling. When Allen chooses to transition his fights from feet to floor, his results are outstanding. 

When Allen is unable to transition bouts to the basement, his elementary striking becomes an obstacle. His 47% strike defense and negative strike differential per minute of fighting exemplify the need for Allen to immediately engage in the clinch and then transition fights to the floor.

So in this battle, we have a striker with relatively inept grappling/wrestling skills taking on a fighter in Allen who is average on the feet but world-class on the mat.

Once this fight begins, it will be Shahbazyan who will look to touch up the feisty Allen as he works his way into the pocket to clasp. 

Meanwhile, Allen will look to tackle Shabaz and ground him as soon as practically possible, on the floor, and even worse, off his back, Shahbazyan is no match for Allen.

Allen’s been training in elevation with Trevor Whittman in Denver, which is a direct tell that he is working diligently to improve his striking as well as continue to develop his cardio.

This is a great spot for Brendan Allen, who will control this fight in the second and third rounds by utilizing his grappling prowess. He just needs to manage that first round when Shahbazyan comes out fists flying!. 

Allen opened -350 and Shahbazyan money has moved the line to its current price of Brendan Allen -220.

As Roger Daltrey sang for The Who, ” I call that a bargain.” 

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -185. 

There are some 2.5 Under -165 in the market. Over 1.5 seems a sound consideration.

On Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. We’ve been on fire lately. Catch the final releases for this card there or at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights!

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