Game: Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: October 25th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

On October 25th, we’ll see a historic ACC matchup between UVA and UNC in “The South’s Oldest Rivalry.” Carolina controls the all-time series, having won 66 games to Virginia’s 59. The Cavaliers enter this contest with a 3-0 ACC record and a 6-1 overall mark, currently ranked 16th in the nation. They’ve had some close calls in recent weeks but have managed to hold strong down the stretch. Offensively, they’ve been solid, ranking 36th in yards per game (422.7) and 10th in points per game (37.5). Defensively, the Hoos have been closer to the FBS average, sitting 57th in yards allowed per game (369.3) and 59th in points allowed per game (24.5).

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The Tar Heels enter this matchup with an 0-2 ACC record and a 2-4 overall record, coming off a tough road loss at Cal. This team has struggled mightily on offense, ranking 133rd in yards per game (260.2) and 131st in points per game (14.2). Defensively, things have been a bit better but still below the FBS average, ranking 81st in yards allowed per game (392.6) and 88th in points allowed per game (28.8). At this point in the season, UNC is positioned to play spoiler. Their motivation will be to damage Virginia’s ACC title hopes and likely end their CFP contention.

Weather

It’s shaping up to be a pleasant day in Chapel Hill this Saturday, with temperatures in the low 60s for kickoff. There’s only a 1% chance of precipitation, and winds shouldn’t be an issue, averaging around 4 mph with gusts up to 9 mph.

Betting Overview

“The South’s Oldest Rivalry” opened with UVA favored between -9.5 and -10. Some books have stayed at -10, while others have moved to -10.5. The moneyline hasn’t shifted much, with the best value currently at -390 for UVA and +330 for UNC. As for the total, there’s been little movement, as most books have held steady at the original 51.5 mark.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: According to FPI, UVA is rated 45th in FBS and would give 7.3 points to the field average, while UNC sits at 99th and would receive 8.3 from the field average. Based on these metrics, UVA would be about a 15.5-point favorite on a neutral field, which would translate to roughly -12.5 to -13.5 with UNC’s home field advantage.
  • SP+: The Cavaliers currently rank 50th in SP+, giving 7.5 points to the field average, while the Tar Heels are 98th, receiving 7.7. These figures produce a similar projection to ESPN’s FPI, though SP+ brings the line slightly closer to UNC.

Betting Trends

Over the last eight matchups between these teams, UVA has won five of eight and covered in six. The over has been slightly more common, hitting in four of eight with one push and three unders. UNC won this game last season, covered the spread, and the under hit.

Virginia is currently 5-2 ATS on the season. In their two road games this year, they’ve gone 1-1, and against ACC opponents they’re 3-1. The over has also been favorable, cashing in four of seven games with one push. On the road, totals have split 1-1, while in ACC play, the over has hit in three of four.

UNC enters this matchup 3-3 ATS, with a 1-2 record at home and 0-2 as a home underdog. In ACC games, the Tar Heels are 1-1 ATS. Unders have been more frequent in their matchups, hitting in four of six with one push. At home, UNC has seen one over, one under, and one push, while ACC games have resulted in one under and one push.

Final Thoughts

Carolina showed some fight last week in Berkeley, which was encouraging to see, but that opponent matched up much more evenly with the Tar Heels. Virginia has had a few close calls in recent weeks, but I think their offense will ultimately prove too much for Carolina, whose defense hasn’t shown much promise against proficient offenses. I like UVA to come into Chapel Hill, cover the 10 to 10.5 points, and for the under to hit.