With no question as to the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, we can all agree that the draft really starts with the second pick. Fernando Mendoza will hear his name announced as the No. 1 pick by the Raiders surrounded by friends and family at home and then the chaos begins.

The Jets hold the No. 2 pick and are seemingly down to Arvell Reese or David Bailey, with a pretty big line swing towards Reese in recent days, as the team reportedly cancelled their visit with Bailey after meeting with him extensively during his Pro Day in March.

What the Jets decide to do may dictate what the Cardinals do with the third pick, as the player not selected by NYJ could be the one picked by Arizona. Whether that’s Bailey or Reese, the Cardinals and first-year head coach Mike LaFleur badly need somebody to get after the quarterback in the NFC West and both guys project to do that. That said, the Cardinals have a lot of needs, including offensive line, so they could certainly trade back and that could lead to a surprising player off the board. Or even just take their top-graded OL right away.

So, it is the No. 3 pick where the first round has a chance to go off the rails a little bit, since all indications are that the Jets will keep theirs and are down to a 50-50 decision. The Cardinals, though, may very well look to add more draft capital and moving back in the first round may open up another possibility…

How Many QBs Will Be Drafted in the First Round?

The Cardinals probably have a lot to do with why the vig at time of writing (4/19, 10 a.m. PT) on total QBs taken in the first round was sitting at -180 on Over 1.5. Reports have been swirling pretty hard that the Cardinals, who currently have Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew on the roster after sending Kyler Murray to Minnesota, really like Alabama QB Ty Simpson.

After the third pick, the Cardinals have the 34th pick, so the second pick of the second round. It is very, very possible that Simpson is still available there. On the other hand, if there’s one position that GMs regularly reach for, it is the most important one in the sport. By draft night, we may know if the Cardinals have a clear choice between Reese and Bailey, or maybe even a different position. If they do, and that choice is indeed taken by the Jets, then maybe Arizona does trade back. Speculation heading into the festivities in Pittsburgh is that this could be an active first round for trades.

LaFleur, who has spent the last three seasons as the OC with the Rams and a veteran QB in Matthew Stafford, might not be giving lip service when he says he’s happy with his quarterback room because of the experience, but he knows that the upside is extremely limited.

Even if the Cardinals don’t move out of the third pick, the value of the second pick of the second round and the first pick of the third round might be enough to entice a team later in the first round to make a trade that allows Arizona to get back into the mix with another top-32 draft pick.

Are the Cardinals the Only Contender for Ty Simpson?

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See, this is the big question. And, that’s assuming that Simpson is the only other QB with a first-round grade for teams. Laying the -180 price, a number likely to keep growing as the draft draws nearer based on the priority put on that position, becomes a more difficult wager if only one of the other 31 teams seem interested in taking a QB that early.

This is arguably the weakest QB class we’ve seen for a draft in a long time. Many evaluators don’t even have a second-round grade on any of the remaining QBs, like Garrett Nussmeier, Carson Beck, Drew Allar, and others. If that’s the case, and it looks to be, then the Cardinals shouldn’t feel like they’re in a hurry to take Simpson.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns obviously need a quarterback, but there have been no indications that they’d go with Simpson at Pick 24 or anywhere else. They have glaring needs on the offensive line and at wide receiver. They have a glaring need at QB, too, but Simpson doesn’t really fit the profile of players that the Browns have been excited about drafting in the Andrew Berry era.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Could the Steelers be in play for Simpson at 21 or with a trade down? It’s entirely possible, as letting Simpson sit behind Aaron Rodgers for a season or two could provide a long-term benefit. However, attracting Mike McCarthy to the Steel City to reunite with Rodgers suggests that this is more of a win-now team looking to get an impact player at a position of need. Wide receiver is a main one and it’s possible that somebody falls into the Steelers’ laps with a lot of interchangeable prospects beyond Makai Lemon, Jordyn Tyson, and Carnell Tate. One of them could fall to Pittsburgh and it wouldn’t be a surprise.

New York Jets

After getting their pass rusher at No. 2, could the Jets go the QB route at 16 or maybe trade 16 back to take Simpson later? To be honest, that seems like the only other possible landing spot beyond Arizona for Simpson. The Jets also have three first-round picks in next year’s draft, where Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, and Trinidad Chambliss are all expected to be available. Not to mention, guys like CJ Carr, Drew Mestemaker, and LaNorris Sellers are capable of having seasons worthy of moving up teams’ draft boards.

Acquiring Geno Smith as a bridge QB made a ton of sense for the Jets. If they can get league average QB play while improving in other areas, they can exceed some expectations, though a dramatic turnaround still seems unlikely.

Will Ty Simpson Be Drafted in the First Round?

Ultimately, based on the vig that we’re seeing on this bet and the circumstances surrounding the Cardinals at 34, my lean would be towards the ‘No’. Not that it matters a ton, but the Rookie Scale in the NFL per Spotrac shows a difference of a few million dollars from the 20s to the mid-30s, so the Cardinals could create at least a little more financial flexibility by waiting their turn. Like I outlined above, they probably don’t have much competition for Simpson.

The pre-draft chess match of teams and agents leveraging beat writers to produce smokescreens is going to cause the vig on this bet to dance around quite a bit. Quarterbacks are buzzworthy players in the lead-up to the draft and arguably the easiest to write about, so we’re sure to see a lot of Ty Simpson coverage that will shift and shape the betting market. At the end of the day, I think finding an entry point into betting either the ‘No’ on Ty Simpson as a first-rounder if you find a two-way market or taking the Under 1.5 on first-round QBs will be the way to go.

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