We cashed our only official play of the night on Thursday, as the Lynx and Valkyries sailed over the total comfortably for us to cash the Over, which brings the current run to 7-3. Friday night has a trifecta of games, featuring the Chicago Sky hosting the Connecticut Sun, the LA Sparks hosting the Dallas Wings, and the Portland Fire playing host to the Phoenix Mercury. Here are the TSI projections for Friday night.

Chicago Sky (-7) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 163.5

Embed from Getty Images

After starting 3-1, Chicago has now lost 5 straight games, and they’ve shockingly yet to win a game at home. Connecticut has just two wins on the season, and is 1-6 on the road. TSI projects Chicago -4 with a total of 158.5, and now we’ve got enough data to analyze the home/road performance splits and use that as a handicapping tool as well, and Chicago has been 6 points worse at home than on the road this season. Sky home games are about 12 points lower scoring than their road games have been. Connecticut has been about 2 points worse on the road than at home, and their road games have been 17 points lower than home games. Chicago’s home performances have just been too bad to ignore, so I’m going to fade them here and back Connecticut and the Under.

Bet: Sun +7 (Play to +6)
Bet: Under 163.5 (Play to 161.5)

LA Sparks (+1.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 178.5

Kelsey Plum is expected back in the lineup for LA after missing a couple games due to an ankle injury. LA has lost back-to-back games without Plum. Dallas has won 6 straight and is looking like one of the best teams in the W. At home, LA has been about 7.5 points worse than on the road this season, and their home games have been 3 points lower scoring, on average. Dallas has actually been better on the road than at home by a point, and their road games have totaled about 20 more points per game on average. TSI projects Dallas -4.5 with a total of 177.5. Full transparency, I bet the Over at 170.5 on Thursday but it’s obviously moved too much now to still take, but I do love the Wings here, as they’re definitely the better team, and the home/road splits for each team indicate Dallas should comfortably win this game.

Bet: Wings -1.5 (Play to -3)

Portland Fire (-2.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 162

Portland comes in having won 4 of its last 6 games, while Phoenix did manage to beat Seattle last game after losing 6 straight prior to that. Portland has actually been about a half point worse at home, with home games scoring about 1.5 points per game more than road games. Phoenix has surprisingly been 5 points better on the road than at home, but their road games have been 12 points per game lower scoring than their home games. The key story in this game is the injury status of Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper for Phoenix, as it seems neither will be in the lineup tonight. At full strength, TSI projects Phoenix -8 with a total of 162.5, and although Thomas and Copper are important pieces, I do not believe they’re worth 10.5 points combined to the spread, so I’m going to back the shorthanded Mercury on the road.

Bet: Mercury +2.5

For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.

The post WNBA Picks Today: Odds, Game Previews, and Projections for Friday, June 5 appeared first on VSiN.