UFC 320 Predictions:
This week, the UFC is in Las Vegas for UFC 320, a PPV event featuring 14 great mixed martial arts fights headlined by two five-round championship co-main event bouts: a bantamweight title fight and the long-anticipated light heavyweight championship rematch between the current champ Magomed Ankalaev and the former champion Alex Pereira.
All 14 bouts will be held in the larger 30-foot octagon in front of a boisterous Las Vegas T Mobile Arena crowd.
There are seven fights featuring welterweight men and larger, which I track because of the higher percentage of finishes for the larger-bodied fighters. There are also a few fights featuring fighters with substantial age differences (five years or more) that are noteworthy.
Early Prelims for UFC 320 begin at 3 p.m. PT, with Prelims at 5 p.m. PT and finally the PPV portion of the card at 7 p.m. PT.
Magomed Ankalaev -240 vs. Alex Pereira +200
Embed from Getty ImagesLight Heavyweight Championship (205 pounds) main event
Russian light heavyweight champion Ankalaev is an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He enters this fight brimming with confidence after having defeated Pereira this past March in a relatively one-sided affair.
Ankalaev fights with grappling on his mind. While he is effective and powerful with his striking, he is not overly quick, precise, or dazzling in that specialty. Ankalaev relies heavily on his kicking attack as an effective weapon to not only create distance but also back opponents up, allowing him to earn his way into the pocket and transition to his vice grip wrestling ability.
Ankalaev will be the slightly shorter man giving up reach in this fight, so the metrics for his success mean he must work his way into the pocket and squelch the reach/striking length and thus effectiveness of ‘Poatan’ for him to realize success in this fight. He seemed to have little problem gaining inside position in their first fight, so it will be interesting to see what, if any, adjustments each combatant brings to this rematch.
For Pereira, in UFC competition, his grappling/wrestling and BJJ were only adequate and nowhere near the level of expertise that he holds with his world-class kickboxing and Muay Thai striking abilities.
In their first fight, I believe that Pereira’s travel and UFC appearances (he missed a few UFC events) hindered his ability to train effectively for their first bout, as evidenced by his lethargic and listless appearance in the fight.
That being said, we must heap some credit on Ankalaev for basically beating Pereira at his own game…the stand-up!
Will Ankalaev utilize a wrestling/grappling-heavy approach for this fight to change it up on Periera, or will he walk the former champion down on the feet to corner him and force pressure onto the Brazilian striker to sap him of his snap and power?
Pereira’s height, reach and precision power striking/kicking must be utilized more effectively in this fight to back Ankalaev up, then appropriating distance to rain damage on the current titleholder.
For his part, Ankalev must back up Pereira with forward pressure and constant clutching. Even though he did not take Pereira down in the first fight, he will need to in order to retain his title in this bout.
Pereira needs to arrive more prepared to fight in a war. He must utilize his footwork to maintain ideal striking distance, then try to time power punches, knees, and elbows onto the incoming grappler when he tries to force his way inside.
Ankalaev’s Sambo and unrelenting forward pressure must be dealt with, and Periera’s adjustments from the first fight will need to be addressed by the current champion as well.
While Pereira has been training BJJ and wrestling takedown defense with Glover Teixeira, we saw little of that art in the first fight, as Ankalaev effectively beat Pereira at his own game… stand-up striking!
Ankalaev is a fighter with world-class mixed martial arts ability. However, his aura is as exciting as old cardboard. He does not move the public needle in the slightest. While that should never apply in any modern mixed martial arts competition, the fact is that the UFC awards bonuses to fighters for exciting finishes, devastating knockouts and crowd-crazed performances, none of which Ankalaev has been adept at.
Meanwhile, Pereira’s aura, his devastating power, and his public following do move the UFC needle. Make no mistake, this rematch was set up to give Pereira (and the UFC) a shot at winning that title back to breathe fire and intensity into the division again.
Intangibles like this may seem remote and obscure, but the UFC really wants/needs Pereira back as a titleholder to move the needle on viewership for future title shots because with Ankalaev, this division is dried out and dormant. Unfortunate but true.
Can ‘Poatan’ find his ‘Chama’ and get the light heavyweight title back in his hands and inject excitement and eyeballs back into the division?
His camp, as well as the UFC, sure hope so!
Ankalaev opened -200 for their first fight, and he opened -180 for this one. He now stands -240 with the takeback on Pereira +200.
I am fascinated to determine what Periera can do to change the result of the fight they competed in this past March.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Over -170.
The March fight’s total was 2.4, and the result was a decision.
Merab Dvalishvili -380 vs. Cory Sandhagen +325
Bantamweight Championship (135 pounds)
Sandhagen is the fourth-ranked bantamweight in the division. He is a tall, long, highly agile striker who utilizes his length and body frame as effectively as anyone in the organization.
Decorated with a brown belt in BJJ, Sandhagen is also highly dangerous on the ground because of the combination of his grappling experience and his physically freakish length.
Sandhagen sports a +1.66 significant strike differential to go along with his take down average of 1,30 per 15 minutes of fight time. About the only susceptibility Sandhagen has is that, due to his unusual length, he is vulnerable to opponents’ takedowns, as he is only effective in stopping them 62% of the time.
In Georgian champion Merab Dvalishvili, we get a short, squat, highly motivated cardio machine who is gifted with unbelievable cardio ability, world-class wrestling acumen, and in the cage, an extremely aggressive nature.
Dvalishvili owns the record in the UFC for takedowns, having achieved 97 of them in 15 UFC bouts, for an average of 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
Dvalishvili puts new meaning to ‘unrelenting forward pressure’ in his fights, a term I use to describe aggressive wrestlers.
Once this fight begins, I handicap Sandhagen attempting to utilize his length, athleticism, and savvy to maintain striking distance, thereby clubbing, kneeing, and elbowing Dvalishvili as he rushes to engage in a takedown.
Space, distance, and striking will be Sandhagen’s allies in this fight, while Merab will strive to enter the pocket on the challenger, clasp onto him, then drag him to the floor for a trip to hell.
Dvalishvili is a gifted wrestler who understands that the UFC is looking for excitement and flash finishes. His only potential pitfall in this fight is believing that he can stand and strike against a much taller man who is a more refined, specialized, and precise striker.
In this fight, Dvalishvili needs to stick to his strength, come out and ground Sandhagen, then put him into the meat grinder for as long as Sandhagen can survive.
Should he come out swinging, he could find himself being carried out on his shield.
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -325
I’ll take the easy route this week and play a main event parlay:
UFC 320 Best Bet: Ankalaev -240 to Dvalishvili -380, 1.28u to earn 1u
Unusual as it is, I am unable to feel confident in any underdog releases this early in the UFC 320 week. Friday, my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com, and I’m certain to have located a stray mutt or two by then. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.
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