This week, Newark hosts UFC 328, a 13-fight event utilizing the large octagon in front of some of New Jersey’s finest fight fanatics. Seven of the 13 bouts will be waged between men weighing 170 pounds and larger. Those large men achieve the highest finish rates in the organization. 

Name recognition and dynamic stylistic matchups await viewers. The production’s early prelims begin at 2 p.m. PT. Preliminary action starts at 4 p.m. PT. The main card drops at 5 p.m. PT.

Six US fighters hold the advantage of facing an athlete who must travel to the US to compete. There are three bouts in which the youth advantage exceeds 6 years, giving those athletes a 65% win rate. 

Digital results (8-9-1 -2.0u) took a unit hit last week as my release of Jack Della Maddalena was a disaster. That was as large a miss as I can recall making. 

Time to bounce back.

Khamzat Chimaev -600 vs. Sean Strickland +470 

Middleweight Championship (185 pounds)

Middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev is a three-time Swedish national champion in freestyle wrestling. He is also decorated with a black belt in BJJ. 

Chimaev has competed in and dominated two UFC divisions and threatens to make it three. 

This Russian gangster is incredibly strong. His unrelenting, forceful forward aggression is admired by other decorated world-class wrestlers/grapplers, and his striking is slowly beginning to evolve, though he does not need to employ that aspect of MMA into his repertoire simply because no one can stop his dominant pressure wrestling.  

Inactivity and cardio are the only critiques one may thrust upon Chimaev, as he has struggled in the past with visas and access into the USA, which covers his inactivity. 

Past fights with welterweights (170 pounds) Gil Burns and Kamaru Usman lead me to believe that Chimaev’s gas tank could be suspect, as Burns and Usman both are welterweight athletes who forced Chimaev into decision fights.  

Third-ranked and former middleweight champion Sean Strickland is Chimaev’s foe this weekend, and it should be noted that these two have trained together previously, adding depth and a sprinkle of hatred to this matchup. 

Strickland is the only fighter on the UFC roster who can match Chimaev’s maniacal behavior and process both inside and outside the cage. Strickland is the better-versed mixed martial artist of the two, as his striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio are all well-developed and complete. 

Strickland, who is a full-grown middleweight fighter, will strive to keep the blitzing Chimaev at bay with movement, takedown defense, and his own brand of fists, elbows, and occasional kicks. 

Strickland’s focus will be to compete with Chimaev for the first two rounds of this fight with the goal of forcing Chimaev to expend his cardio/energy. If Strickland can weather the first ten minutes of this battle, then he may get to turn the tables on Chimaev, a fighter who is known to slow as fights progress. 

At the bell for round three, Chimaev will have to deal with another three rounds of a threat in Strickland, who can actually get stronger as this fight progresses.  

Chimaev opened -400 for this fight. This fight will be much more competitive than any we have seen Chimaev undertake, simply because of Strickland’s fortitude, his natural middleweight build, and his ability to out-crazy anyone in the organization, including Chimaev. 

Strickland’s going to need to weather a furious first two rounds, then he’ll look to turn the tables on this monster and bully this bully. 

Chimaev has the reputation of being a devastator, but those Usman and Burns fights tell me that Strickland has everything he needs to be able to compete with this man on par. 

Many fight pundits suspect that Strickland is simply Chimaev’s next victim, and that may be the case, but I find it also quite plausible that Strickland, a guy completely unafraid of anything, will be able to reproduce that effort his last fight out against Fluffy Hernandez. 

With that type of performance, Strickland can not only compete with Chimaev but also take this fight well into the deep championship waters. There is surely a path for Strickland to win this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -124 (FanDuel)

UFC 328 Best Bet: Over 2.5Rds. 2.48u to earn 2.0u

Tatsuro Taira -165 vs. Joshua Van +145 

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Flyweight Championship (125 pounds)

Joshua Van, 24, is a highly athletic volume striker with cage intelligence, deft footwork, precision striking, and abundant power in his strikes. 

A blue belt in BJJ, Van’s grappling and wrestling are mainly unpronounced as he does his talking with his hands and on his feet. Josh Van has a combination of athleticism, speed, precision, and bad intentions in everything he throws at opponents. Van is a gifted striker indeed.

In Tatsuro Taira, we have a Japanese grappler extraordinaire decorated with a purple belt in BJJ. Taira will be the taller, longer athlete in the cage who will also hold a five-inch reach advantage. 

Taira’s blueprint for success revolves around him taking Van to the canvas, while Van’s focus will be to absolutely keep this fight standing. 

At the end of the day, Taira is 26 and gaining momentum with each fight. He will get Van to the floor. When that occurs, it will mark the beginning of the end of this fight, as I handicap it. 

Taira opened -185, so I’ll gladly take the discount being offered on him currently.

UFC 328 Best Bet: Tatsuro Taira -165 1u

King Green -300 vs. Jeremy Stephens +250 

(Lightweight 155 pounds)

Forty-year-old Jeremy Stephens arrives in Newark to participate in an epic battle that should have been waged years ago. Stephens, a purple belt in BJJ, employs little BJJ in his fights, for Stephens is a single-mindedly focused finisher who used the bludgeoning effect of his elbow, fists, and kicks to demolish opponents. 

Stephens has 29 career victories, 21 of which have come via finish. Stephens’ power and aggression remain, but his footwork, strike evasion, and cardio have long since left him. He’ll look to win this battle via the KO.

In King Green, we have a 39-year-old adversary to Stephens who, while on par with Stephens on age, far exceeds him when it comes to athleticism, fleet footedness, strike evasion, and precision striking.

Green does not possess the natural striking power of Stephens, but as far as every other measurable aspect of mixed martial arts, Green’s fighting acumen eclipses Stephens.

This should be an exciting fight that will resemble a bull fight with King Green as matador and Stephens as the raging bull.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -150

Lean over

Friday morning, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch it across all podcast platforms or at GambLou.com. Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights.

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