The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open is underway at the Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain, and the clay-court season only heats up from here. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Madrid, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Mutua Madrd Open best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Thursday, April 23 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
This has been a brutal season for Dimitrov, as he’s 2-8 since the start of the year. Dimitrov also comes into this match having lost three straight — and seven of his last eight. The Bulgarian has now fallen all the way to No. 137 in the ATP rankings, which is wild for a former world No. 3. The 34-year-old also has a tricky opening matchup, as Daniel Vallejo is very comfortable on clay. In fact, Daniel Vallejo has already won two matches this tournament, getting through qualifying to book his spot in the main draw.
Despite all of that, I’m treating this as a discount on a top-15 player in the sport. Dimitrov didn’t suddenly forget how to play tennis. He’s just trying to find some comfort on court after having dealt with serious injuries in recent years. But you know what? The fact that Dimitrov hasn’t had to deal with any significant pain recently is a win. As long as he’s able to stay on the court, he should break through and find his game again. Why can’t he do it here?
Dimitrov is a much better server than Daniel Vallejo, and that should be big on these courts. Dimitrov’s backhand slice is also a major weapon on lower-bouncing surfaces, and that should give him a nice go-to shot in rallies here. I also believe that an in-form Dimitrov would dominate a match like this with his forehand. That said, if the Bulgarian shows up in decent shape, I see him finding a way through.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (-106 – 1.5 units)
Alycia Parks vs. Ann Li
Embed from Getty ImagesParks is one of the most up-and-down players on the WTA Tour right now, but it’s hard to lay off her at plus-money odds here. Parks is coming off a solid run in Stuttgart, where she went to the Round of 16 and put up a good fight against Mirra Andreeva. The American has also won three matches in Madrid already, winning in straight sets against Elina Avanesyan and Ksenia Efremova in qualifying. She then earned another straight-set win over Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the opening round.
The win over Cocciaretto is a hard one to ignore as Parks gets ready to face Li. Cocciaretto is a player that has some serious rally tolerance, so Parks finding a way through her should mean good things when looking at this match in the Round of 64. Parks has a booming serve and a lot of power from the baseline. However, staying solid and avoiding costly errors can be an issue for her. Well, with Parks managing everything well right now, I don’t see any reason she can’t beat Li in server-friendly conditions. This is a coin-flip match, which isn’t reflected in the odds.
Bet: Parks ML (+119)
Camila Osorio vs. Naomi Osaka
Osaka beat Osorio in a three-set match at Indian Wells, earning a 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 victory in the desert. However, while those aren’t the most straightforward hard-court conditions in the world, they’re still hard courts. Well, Osaka is 182-89 on hard courts in her career. Meanwhile, she’s just 29-29 on clay. That said, we’re about to see Osaka on her very worst surface, while we’re about to see Osorio on her best surface.
Osorio is a ridiculous 54-24 on clay in her career, so she’s truly elite when competing on the dirt. And while this is a more server-friendly clay-court tournament than most, Osorio should have an advantage in most of the longer rallies here. Also, the fact that these conditions are kind to servers could help her hold a little easier than she did when these two met in the BNP Paribas Open.
Osorio also did beat Osaka at Indian Wells last year, winning 6-4, 6-4 in the first round. I say that to say that this has been a competitive head-to-head in recent years, and I can see things tilting the Colombian’s way on red clay.
Bet: Osorio ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: While only three picks are written up here, I usually have more on the Pro Picks page. I try to select the plays I write up based on player popularity. Some of the picks on the Pro Picks page are higher-confidence selections.
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