The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open is underway at the Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain, and the clay-court season only heats up from here. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Madrid, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Mutua Madrd Open best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Friday, April 24 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Karolina Pliskova vs. Maria Sakkari
Embed from Getty ImagesThis is going to be an intriguing clash of styles. Pliskova, at 34 years old, really can’t move anymore. She’s out there looking to serve up bombs, and she swings out of her shoes when the ball is in play. Meanwhile, Sakkari does have some punch for a player her size, but she wants to keep rallies alive, utilize her athleticism, and strike when the moment is right. Don’t get me wrong, the Greek star is aggressive in her own right. However, she is much more of a baseliner than her opponent.
On a normal clay court, I’d likely give Sakkari a huge edge over Pliskova. The longer rallies, the grinding nature of play, and the physicality would all favor the younger player here. However, playing at altitude, in Madrid, Pliskova’s ability to rack up easy holds and hit clean winners should give her a slight edge here. Sakkari has made strides this season, starting to show signs of becoming the player she used to be. But the 30-year-old is still a weak server, holding at just 65.8% this year. And she has lost to a couple of ball-bashers in her most recent matches. That said, Pliskova will have a better than 50% chance of advancing here.
Bet: Pliskova ML (+120)
Dino Prizmic vs. Ben Shelton
To be fully transparent, I didn’t begin looking at this slate with any intentions of playing Prizmic to defeat Shelton. However, this is one of the fishiest lines I have seen in quite some time, so I feel I have to throw something on the Croatian. According to our DraftKings betting splits, nearly 98% of the tickets and handle have come in on Shelton here. However, the American opened at -237 at DraftKings, yet he’s now down to -200. That signals some significant sharp money backing Prizmic.
I will, however, note that Prizmic has played a ton of clay-court matches in his career. He grew up on the dirt, where he has displayed awesome movement, sound point-construction ability, and the overall firepower to finish points. Meanwhile, Shelton is coming off a title run in Munich last week, meaning this could be a bit of a letdown spot for him.
Bet: Prizmic ML (+163)
Tomas Machac vs. Cameron Norrie
Rafael Jodar vs. Alex de Minaur
I had slight leans on Machac and Jodar to win outright, but I think there’s a chance both matches end up being three-set wars. So, instead of taking the two of them on the moneyline, I’m going with alternate set spreads and pairing them together.
With the Machac match, it’s just hard not to feel like the Czech player has the firepower to out-talent his opponent. If you’ve been following my work for a while, you should know that Norrie is one of my favorite players to back. He’s the ultimate competitor, he has a pretty complete game, and he’s a smart player. But Machac just generates power way easier, and that should make the difference in faster clay conditions. If he’s striking the ball well, he’ll have Norrie scrambling a bunch.
In the other match, I just don’t see Jodar going down in straights in his home 1000. This is a player that has really made his present felt on the ATP Tour this season, and his game is a perfect match for these conditions. Not only does Jodar enjoy moving on a clay court, but he’s a big guy with a massive serve. De Minaur also happens to be his worst self on clay, despite the fact that he’s an elite mover.
Bet: Machac +1.5 Sets & Jodar +1.5 Sets (-135 – 1.5 units)
NOTE: While only three picks are written up here, I usually have more on the Pro Picks page. I try to select the plays I write up based on player popularity. Some of the picks on the Pro Picks page are higher-confidence selections.
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