Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, May 9 racing card at Belmont at the Big A, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Arizona Territory (2nd race)
Second Race
1. Arizona Territory
2. Celtic Flame
3. Vekomasan
Well-bred ARIZONA TERRITORY endured an eventful trip in his debut, where he actually ran well to only be defeated by five lengths; pulled a better trip in his second start, and he was impressive running that field over with a 79 Beyer; forward to go. CELTIC FLAME was the lone firster in that field when rallying to finish a gaining second on debut; never got in position to be effective in his second start, but he bounced back nicely to break his maiden last time, with blinkers on; bred for turf as a half to Fahan Mura, a Grade 2 winner on the surface. VEKOMASAN made only one start as a 2yo, where he went favored and comfortably wired a field over yielding ground at Colonial; Lasix on for an excellent layoff trainer – 180+ days: 7 for his last 24, 29%, $3.92 ROI (5 for 16 in that sample on turf, 31%, $5.21 ROI).
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other ten races on Friday’s Belmont at the Big A card.
First Race
1. Karley B
2. Close the Loop
3. Into the Unknown
KARLEY B was bet to favoritism for her debut, where she wound up getting into early trouble and had to settle for a game third; deserves another chance. CLOSE THE LOOP is a $200k yearling by an 18% debut sire; the dam was a hard-hitting type, earning over $400k from a 76-race career; has had some stops and starts leading up to this, but has been breezing right along for the last 60 days, and she has top connections in her corner. INTO THE UNKNOWN debuted in the same race as the top one, where she raced greenly throughout and also had some traffic trouble; can improve quickly with that experience behind her.
Third Race
1. Shellac
2. Red Miller
3. Majestic Arc
SHELLAC dropped sharply to break his maiden two back, for which he earned a field-best 79 Beyer; got in as an MTO last time going a mile, where he ran poorly over a wet track for the second time recently; drops and turns back. RED MILLER dropped to break his maiden last September, then faced Dreamlike and Ranger Battalion in his next two starts; had the claim voided out of a game try behind a repeat winner two back; drops in for $20k after getting a short break. MAJESTIC ARC has already had too many chances in this two-life claiming condition, but he is consistent with a versatile running style; can get a piece, and he is always a fair price.
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Fourth Race
1. Neshika
2. Cosmic Candy Girl
3. Dividend Recap
NESHIKA cut a solid pace before weakening in her route debut last September; changed up her running style when entered back a month later, and she kicked in with a strong finish to close that field down; was patiently ridden in the Key Cents, then blew the turn a bit when swung out to get going past the quarter-pole, before once again finishing well; showed some potential to build on as a 2yo, and Prat takes the mount for her return. COSMIC CANDY GIRL made a game run to a late lead before just missing in that Key Cents last November; was improving with every start up to that stakes-placing; got in a run off the layoff last month, where she sat up close but could not reach that front-running winner, then was no match for the runner-up in the late stages; can do better. DIVIDEND RECAP dropped for her return from an extended layoff last summer at Saratoga, and she looked good winning that race with a strong finish from off the pace; ran just as well in her next start, but bumped into an improved rival in that spot and had to settle for second; clearly has some issues, but she is dangerous right off the bench.
Fifth Race
1. Paula’s a Star
2. Army Gal
3. Minute by Minute
PAULA’S A STAR was a convincing maiden winner in her return from a layoff early last year, after which she tried colts in the Winkfield and finishied a good third; put her pace rivals away when back in allowance company at Saratoga last July, but wound up getting gunned down by a closer, and she tried taking the race to Odds-on Senza Parole before getting tired in her final start as a 3yo; showed speed and tired in a race that came back fast in her return; should be tighter for this. ARMY GAL is 1 for her last 7 since beginning her career with a pair of clear-cut wins over NY-breds early last year, though she earned a field-best 91 Beyer for that victory last September; faced the aforementioned Senza Parole in her next start, then got wired by a longshot winner when last seen; starts back fresh once again. MINUTE BY MINUTE faced a field full of first-time starters in her debut last September, where she dueled most of the way before prevailing in a race that featured no closing; Lasix on for the 3yo debut.
Sixth Race
1. Radio Red
2. Full Moon Madness
3. One Nine Hundred
RADIO RED ran perhaps the best race of his career, winning off the layoff in February; came right back to take a strongly run Haynesfield last time over a mile; going good now, and he is capable over this shorter distance. FULL MOON MADNESS chased down heavily-favored ONE NINE HUNDRED on the lead, only to get nailed by the last move in the Grade 3 Tom Fool when last seen; reliable sprinter was in better form than his running lines might have made it look on the way into that race, though he has been listed as a vet scratch since then; threat right back if ready. ONE NINE HUNDRED sped clear and tired in his return from a layoff last November; was fitter for his next start and blew away a weak field of allowance horses with a fast figure, which led to him being heavily favored in the Tom Fool; might be the best speed in this field.
Seventh Race
1. Eunomia
2. Inefficiency
3. Dry Powder
EUNOMIA showed that she preferred dirt in her final start for original connections, and she has only gotten better since joining this barn at the end of last year; exits the best effort of her career when just missing in a Grade 2 with a 97 Beyer; turning back no issue. INEFFICIENCY has been visually impressive while beginning her career 2 for 2 for top connections; she was put on the lead in her debut, where she handled a wet track, but she was comfortable sitting off another horse, however briefly, last time; can easily be this good. DRY POWDER earned a 91 Beyer when just missing in a Grade 1 last September, before taking a shot at the Breeders’ Cup Distaff; rated and ran to that easy allowance win two back going this distance, then got in way too tough in another Grade 1 last Friday; better fit here if wheeling back on short rest.
Embed from Getty ImagesEighth Race
1. Emblaze
2. Cadenza
3. Pillar of Beauty
EMBLAZE made a good-looking debut at Tampa when closing with a sharp late burst to close down a field of maidens under strong handling; the third-place finisher from that heat returned to blow out a field in her next start with a 75 Beyer; steps right up while giving away experience, but she could be this good. CADENZA stayed gamely after a good trip to break her maiden in her turf debut as a 2yo; has improved her figures since then while racing on synthetic at Turfway; showed improved speed in the stakes debut last time, but she is capable from off the pace. PILLAR OF BEAUTY’s figures have regressed since scoring on debut going short, but she got caught dueling in her second start, then got bottled up behind the lead before finishing well for second in that last one; can get the right trip here from her inside draw.
Ninth Race
1. Talk to Me Jimmy
2. Growth Equity
3. Trendsetter
TALK TO ME JIMMY dominated on the lead in the maiden win late last year; made his 3yo debut in the Withers going this distance, where he pulled off a front-running upset, which briefly had him on the Derby trail; the Wood wasn’t the strongest Derby prep, but TALK TO ME JIMMY actually ran well in that race while contesting a fast pace for a long way, leading to an eventual collapse; doesn’t project to have as tough of a time up front in this spot. GROWTH EQUITY ran well without winning his first two starts, which were separated by a layoff; was only facing three others when sent off a heavy favorite last time, and he won that race easily while earning the top figure in this field; still has something to prove, and he has to stretch out again for this. TRENDSETTER ran well in his route debut two back when involved from a long way out in a race that was dominated by closers late; backed that effort up in a big way when parlaying a perfect trip into an upset of the Grade 3 Lexington back on dirt; good post with tactical speed.
Tenth Race
1. Golden Channel
2. Arkhipov
3. Ramblin’ Wreck
GOLDEN CHANNEL finished a good second in a strong MSW field last March at Gulfstream; returned to win his next start in front-running fashion, then was sidelined after trying the off-turf Pennine Ridge at Saratoga; good effort off the bench last month when just missing to a front-running winner. ARKHIPOV earned an 88 Beyer for his blowout maiden win two starts back; landed in a pretty tough race for the level last month at Keeneland; might be in a better spot here. RAMBLIN’ WRECK is a four-time winner on the grass, though his late-running style always leaves him vulnerable to pace and trip; he got the right setup when snapping a long losing streak three starts back (when in against fellow NY-breds); capable, but needs some pace.
Eleventh Race
1. Music in Motion
2. Ice House
3. Deacon Blues
MUSIC IN MOTION looked good reaching for ground in a 10-flat breeze last April, before selling for $250k; chased from the outside while the top three finishers all rode the inside, and he was bearing down on the leaders in the stretch before weakening in his debut; makes his return back on the grass with Lasix on. ICE HOUSE debuted in a fast race sprinting on dirt, where he flashed speed before fading; half-brother Johanny posted both career wins on the grass, and he was stakes-placed over this course and distance late last year. DEACON BLUES was away from the gate well, but he eventually was outpaced and caught outside when making his turf debut off the layoff; he put in a game stretch run in that spot to get up for a no-threat third, earning a new Beyer top in the process; threat if he can build on that effort.
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