Cracker Barrel 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:

It was a difficult week for the NASCAR world as racing legend Kyle Busch died after complications from pneumonia. The series plowed through and put on a nice showing at the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte. In the end, it was a surprise winner in Daniel Suarez (+17000), as he benefited from some very good and fortunate pit strategy to get out front at the right time and eventually hold off a hard-charging Denny Hamlin before the skies opened up on Lap 373 out of 400. We now move on to Nashville Superspeedway in Lebanon, Tenn., for the Cracker Barrel 400, the only event run at the track each year. 

The odds board for this week is dominated by the usual suspects, with Hamlin (+450) the significant favorite, followed by Tyler Reddick (+700), Christopher Bell (+700), Ryan Blaney (+750) and Kyle Larson (+750). Blaney is the defending champion, and Larson was the inaugural winner here in 2021. None of the other expected frontrunners has won at this venue. Blaney’s teammate Joey Logano was the 2024 winner, meaning Penske Racing is gunning for three in a row on Sunday.

Nashville gets a handicap-ability grade of B- on my scale, as it is one of only two tracks on the circuit whose surface is 100% concrete. The only other one is Dover. The racing here has been described as “Concrete Chaos,” and at times over the four races run in the next-gen car era, it has been. Other times, it has been smooth sailing. In fact, two of the last four races have had double-digit cautions (10 and 15), while the other two have had fewer (4 and 7). That type of unpredictability leads to lesser grades. Concrete tracks tend to be tougher on tires, and strategy can play a big part in who ends up winning. The banking at Nashville is only 14 degrees, 10 less than Dover, so it isn’t a replica. Even still, with Dover only running an All-Star event this season, we don’t see much similar. In terms of the simulation factors, practice speeds have proven most crucial, followed by recent performance. Therefore, be sure to catch Saturday’s practice session before laying down any action. In terms of momentum, Hamlin and Reddick have seemingly been waging a weekly head-to-head duel for series supremacy. Predictably, they are 1-2 on the initial simulation. 

Before digging into what to look for statistically at Dover, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Charlotte and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through 13 races. 

Initial Charlotte simulation winner: Loser Byron (-1 units) – NOW -2 units for the season

Final Charlotte simulation winner: Loser Reddick (-1 units) – NOW +25.5 units for the season

Final Charlotte Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +22.8 units for the season 

Final simulation top 3 Charlotte projections: one winner, two losers, Hamlin +115 – total return -0.85 unit – NOW -0.4 units for the season

Final simulation top 5 Charlotte projections: two winners, three losers, Hamlin -190, Reddick -140 – total return -1 units – Now +0.3 units for the season

Final simulation top 10 Charlotte projections: six winners (Reddick, Blaney, Hamlin, Gibbs, Larson, Bell), four losers, – total return +1 units – Now +7.6 units for the season 

Charlotte was a modest performance overall, and could/would have been much better had the rain not shortened the event with 27 laps remaining. But that is racing/betting in a nutshell and one of the reasons we weren’t looking at an A grade for Charlotte. The Coca-Cola 600 has been impacted by weather a few times recently.

Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…

My personal top 5 Charlotte predictions: three winners, two losers – Reddick -140, Hamlin -190, Bell +110 – total return +1.1 units – Now -12.3 units for the season

Top Charlotte long shots to win: five losers –total return -5 units – Now +10 units for the season

Favorites to struggle at Charlotte: Elliott (37th), Byron (9th), Wallace (22nd), Logano (8th) – Now 37 for 49 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.

Looking ahead to Nashville now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the races in the next-gen car over the last four seasons that have been run at this 1.33-mile, 14-degree all-concrete superspeedway. Ryan Blaney is the most recent winner here, doing it in this race a year ago. Joey Logano, Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott are the other drivers who have won here in the next-gen car era.

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Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Nashville
1. Denny Hamlin: 3
2. William Byron: 7
3. Tyler Reddick: 7
4. Ross Chastain: 8.25
5. Christopher Bell: 10.25
6. Joey Logano: 10.25
…
31. Zane Smith: 31.5
32. Todd Gilliland: 31.75
33. Cody Ware: 32.5
34. Riley Herbst: 33.5
35. John Hunter Nemechek: 35.5
36. Chad Finchum: 38.5

Average PRACTICE SPEED last four races at Nashville
1. Tyler Reddick: 3.75
2. Darrell Wallace: 4.75
3. Ross Chastain: 5.25
4. Denny Hamlin: 8.25
5. William Byron: 8.25
6. Ty Gibbs: 8.33
…
31. John Hunter Nemechek: 28
32. Cole Custer: 32
33. Ty Dillon: 32.33
34. Riley Herbst: 33
35. Cody Ware: 33.5
36. Chad Finchum: 38.5

Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Nashville
1. Denny Hamlin: 4
2. Ross Chastain: 9.75
3. Chase Elliott: 10
4. Christopher Bell: 10.25
5. Joey Logano: 11.75
6. Kyle Larson: 12
…
31. Ty Dillon: 27
32. Todd Gilliland: 28.5
33. John Hunter Nemechek: 30
34. Riley Herbst: 31
35. Cody Ware: 31
36. Chad Finchum: 37

Average LAPS LED last four races at Nashville
1. Denny Hamlin: 86
2. Ryan Blaney: 41.5
3. Ross Chastain: 36
4. Christopher Bell: 33.5
5. Tyler Reddick: 14
6. Chase Briscoe: 12.75
…
19. Kyle Larson: 0
20. Chris Buescher: 0
21. Carson Hocevar: 0
22. Darrell Wallace: 0
23. Erik Jones: 0
24. Josh Berry: 0
25. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
26. Cole Custer: 0
27. Zane Smith: 0
28. Ryan Preece: 0
29. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
30. Noah Gragson: 0
31. Corey Heim: 0
32. Todd Gilliland: 0
33. John Hunter Nemechek: 0
34. Riley Herbst: 0
35. Cody Ware: 0
36. Chad Finchum: 0

Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Nashville
1. Denny Hamlin: 124.15
2. Ross Chastain: 105.35
3. Christopher Bell: 100.9
4. Ryan Blaney: 99.35
5. Chase Elliott: 98.63
6. Kyle Larson: 95.85
…
31. Todd Gilliland: 39.9
32. Ty Dillon: 38.83
33. John Hunter Nemechek: 37.45
34. Riley Herbst: 35.55
35. Cody Ware: 33.6
36. Chad Finchum: 25.5

Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Nashville
1. Denny Hamlin: 303.5
2. Chase Elliott: 249.5
3. Ross Chastain: 249
4. Christopher Bell: 244.25
5. Kyle Larson: 230.75
6. Ryan Blaney: 224.25
…
31. Ricky Stenhouse: 15.75
32. Ty Dillon: 12.33
33. Todd Gilliland: 12.25
34. Cody Ware: 3
35. Riley Herbst: 1.5
36. Chad Finchum: 0

Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Nashville
1. Denny Hamlin: 6
2. Kyle Larson: 6.25
3. Zane Smith: 7.5
4. Joey Logano: 8.25
5. Carson Hocevar: 9
6. Chase Elliott: 9.5
…
31. John Hunter Nemechek: 29
32. Ty Dillon: 29.67
33. Cody Ware: 30
34. Riley Herbst: 30.5
35. Corey Heim: 33
36. Chad Finchum: 36.5

There are some pretty interesting statistical numbers above, most notably Hamlin dominating almost every category, yet failing to win here. After winning the All-Star Race at Dover a couple of weeks ago, he looks to be a sure-fire contender for Sunday. With all of those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Nashville, in order, are Hamlin, Blaney, Reddick, Chastain, Byron. In terms of Track Designation ratings (High banked concrete), the top guys are Blaney, Hamlin, Bowman, Hocevar, Bell. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Reddick, Hamlin, Blaney, Gibbs, Larson. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com. 

The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice/qualifying, which is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit on Sunday in the morning VSiN Newsletter), I would go with the following: 

Top 5: Hamlin, Reddick, Blaney, Chastain, Gibbs

Underdogs: Gibbs, Chastain, Briscoe, Bowman, Hocevar

Fade: Larson, Keselowski, Buescher 

The 300-lap event at Nashville Superspeedway is set for 7 p.m. Sunday. 

Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.

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