French Open Predictions: Tennis best bets for Friday, May 29

The 2026 French Open (also known as Roland Garros) is officially underway at the Stade Roland Garros in Paris. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 French Open best bets are designed to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Friday, May 29 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page. I usually have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his bets.

Jakub Mensik vs. Alex de Minaur
Tommy Paul vs. Casper Ruud

The last time we saw Mensik, he was being peeled off the court after a long, physical five-set win over Mariano Navone. Those matches can be very difficult to recover from, and having to face de Minaur directly after feels like a cruel punishment. There’s nobody on the ATP Tour that makes you earn wins quite like de Minaur does, and I really think he’s going to have Mensik in hell here. Honestly, even if Mensik was healthy, de Minaur would be a brutal matchup. The Australian is an elite returner, which can neutralize the Mensik serve. De Minaur also has a great backhand, so he can comfortably go backhand-to-backhand with the Czech. I just love de Minaur as a parlay anchor on Friday, but make sure you play him somewhere that pays out even in a first-set retirement. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mensik doesn’t last very long here — and I actually wouldn’t be shocked if he withdraws from the tournament before the match even starts.

The play I’m parlaying de Minaur with is Ruud to beat Paul. Like de Minaur, Paul is one of those guys you really never want to see in a draw. However, I do think this is a rough matchup for Paul. The American does so many things well, but his forehand can let him down in big matches. That’s not what you want against Ruud. The Norwegian has one of the best forehands on tour, and it only gets more dangerous on high-bouncing clay. Ruud hits a very heavy ball, and it jumps off the court. That’s going to allow Ruud to push Paul off the court, or just get balls out of his strike zone. And over the course of a five-set match, that should give Ruud a pretty massive edge. Ruud has also won three of his last four tour-level matches against Paul, with the only loss coming in Indian Wells in 2024. That’s not a court that Ruud has enjoyed in the past.

PARLAY: de Minaur ML & Ruud ML (-132 – 1.5 units)

MORE: I have WAY more picks for this French Open slate. VSiN Pro subscribers can check them out here!

Joao Fonseca vs. Novak Djokovic

I don’t love playing -186 favorites. One loss with odds like these can really crush the bankroll. However, while this might not seem like a “value” play, I actually think Djokovic’s chances of beating Fonseca are closer to 70-75% than the implied probability the -186 odds represent. These odds suggest Djokovic wins this match 65.03% of the time, and that seems way too low.

If you’ve been reading my work for a while, you probably know that I’m extremely high on Fonseca. In fact, I think I’m one of the few tennis analysts that still believes his upside is higher than that of Rafael Jodar. However, Fonseca has a lot to prove in terms of match fitness, and he just played a tough five-setter against Dino Prizmic. In that match, Fonseca really had to grind out a win, and it was highly impressive seeing him do so. But having to quickly turn around and take on Djokovic just feels like a massive challenge.

Even with this match set to be played in hot daytime conditions, which can occasionally get to Djokovic, I trust the Serbian’s recovery and preparation processes far more than I trust Fonseca’s. I also think Djokovic’s pinpoint serving will be rough for Fonseca to return. The 19-year-old can occasionally leave you shaking your head with his struggles putting serves back in play. Djokovic’s baseline steadiness could also get to Fonseca, who can rack up unforced errors. And the backhand-to-backhand exchanges in this match are worth monitoring. Djokovic has one of the best backhands of all time, while Fonseca can be miserable from that wing.

Bet: Djokovic ML (-186)

In-Tournament Futures

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Felix Auger-Aliassime To Win French Open (33-1 – 0.25 units): With Jannik Sinner, Ben Shelton, and Daniil Medvedev all out, Auger-Aliassime is now the highest-seeded player remaining in the top half of the draw. Also, tough clay-court players like Alexander Bublik and Valentin Vacherot are also out of the tournament. With that in mind, I’ll take a small piece of Auger-Aliassime to win this event. The Canadian doesn’t necessarily scream “clay-court major winner,” but someone has to go to the final from this half of the draw. Well, of all the players that can possibly make it to the final from the top half, Auger-Aliassime has the best chance of actually beating one of the top-tier players from the other half. So, I’d take the generous 33-1 odds that BetRivers is offering. We’ll hedge it if we can.

Casper Ruud To Win French Open (+900): I already have plays on Ruud to win his quarter and reach the final, but I didn’t take him to win the title because of the presence of Sinner. Well, I’d give Ruud a great chance against anyone he faces in the final at this point, so I’d grab FanDuel’s +900 on him to win this tournament. Am I thrilled about Ruud having to potentially face Paul, Djokovic, and de Minaur before he even faces either Alexander Zverev or Rafael Jodar? Of course not. But +900 is tough to turn down for a player that is playing better than anyone right now.

Matteo Berrettini To Win Quarter 1 (+330 – 1.5 units) & Reach French Open Final (10-1 – 0.25 units): If there’s going to be a truly surprising finalist from the top half of the draw, Berrettini could be the guy. The Italian’s body can let him down at any moment, which definitely makes these plays a little scary to place. However, he has a massive serve, an elite forehand, and he has always preferred moving on clay. He has also been to the finals of a major before. That said, with his path looking like Martin Landaluce and then Frances Tiafoe, I think there’s a really good chance Berrettini is in the semifinals. In terms of strictly talent, he’s the best player remaining in Quarter 1.