Game: UNC Tar Heels at Syracuse Orange

Date: October 31st at 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Though Carolina lost last week in overtime against Virginia, they’ve shown major improvements compared to what we saw from this team at the beginning of the season. This week, they’ll make the trip up to Syracuse, New York to face the Orange. Even with the progress UNC has made in recent weeks, the offense still ranks near the bottom of the FBS, sitting 132nd in yards per game (275.7) and 129th in points per game (14.5).  Defensively, there have been noticeable strides, as the Tar Heels now rank 61st in yards allowed per game (370.3) and 77th in points allowed per game (26.8). 

Syracuse has struggled significantly since losing quarterback Steve Angeli. The Orange currently rank 76th in yards per game (367) and have had major issues scoring, sitting 107th in points per game (19.6). Things haven’t gone well on the defensive side either, as they rank 117th in yards allowed (443) and 105th in points allowed per game (32.3).

Both teams remain mathematically in play for a bowl game, but this matchup is critical for each if they hope to keep those postseason chances alive.

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Betting Overview

The spread in this game is as tight as we’ve seen all season for a Carolina matchup. It opened as a pick’em but has since shifted slightly in favor of Syracuse, who are now listed as 1.5 to 2.5-point favorites. The moneyline also leaned toward Syracuse from the start and has moved a bit further in their direction, with the Orange currently around -122, while UNC sits at +110. The over/under has seen a small dip from the opening line of 48.5, now sitting between 46 and 46.5 depending on the book.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: The FPI model gives Syracuse a noticeable edge over Carolina heading into this week. UNC currently sits 95th, receiving 7.1 points below the FBS average, while Syracuse ranks 77th, getting 3.3 points below the FBS average. Based on those numbers, the model would favor the Orange by roughly 4 points on a neutral field and about 6 points with home-field advantage factored in.
  • SP+: This model rates both teams slightly lower overall, with UNC at 98th and Syracuse at 91st. The Tar Heels sit 7.6 points below the FBS average, while the Orange are 4.8 points below. That projects Syracuse as about a 3-point favorite on a neutral field and closer to 5 points at home.

Betting Trends

After last week, UNC is now above .500 against the spread (ATS) with a 4-3 record. They’ve also performed well on the road, going 2-1 in away games, though they’re just 1-1 as a home underdog. Unders have been a consistent trend in UNC games, hitting in 5 of 7 contests this season. All three of the Tar Heels’ road games have also resulted in the under.

Syracuse enters this week at 3-4-1 ATS, with a 1-2-1 record at home. However, the Orange have gone 1-0-1 ATS in games as a home favorite this season. Over/unders have split evenly at 4-4 overall, but when playing at home, the under has hit in 3 of 4 games and split 1-1 when they’ve been home favorites.

Final Thoughts

Both of these teams have gone four games without a win, but that streak will end for one of them this Friday. It feels like it’s UNC’s time to finally get over the hump and earn their first ACC victory of the year. The Tar Heels have been in close games in back-to-back weeks, while the Orange have been blown out in four straight. Given how poor both offenses have been, I would lean slightly toward the under in this one as well.