The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff game on 6/10. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 71 games, outright winners have gone 65-3-3 ATS (95.6%) in the NBA Finals.

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game 4’s – The first three games of the last 10 NBA Finals series have produced 211.5 PPG on average. Game 4 has seen a significant drop to 205.3, with 11 of the last 12 going Under the total.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

Embed from Getty Images

* Underdogs are 7-5 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Knicks-Spurs non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at NYK)

General Trends

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 21-12 SU and 18-14-1 ATS (56.3%) in the last 33 Finals
games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.

Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs SAS)

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 71 games, outright winners have gone 65-3-3 ATS (95.6%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning Under of late – In the 78 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 31 Overs, 45 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 31-14-1 (68.9%) run in the last 46 games.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

Trends by Line Range

Small home favorites have been vulnerable – Again, like the conference finals, the record of the last 19 small home favorites (-4 points or less) in the NBA Finals is just 6-13 SU and ATS (31.6%).
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs SAS)

Trends by Game Number

Home teams struggle in Game 4s – Game 4 hosts have gone just 3-9 SU and ATS (25%) in the NBA Finals since 2013, including last year, when Indiana (+6) dropped a 111-104 decision.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs SAS)

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game 4s – The first three games of the last 10 NBA Finals series have produced 211.5 PPG on average. Game 4 has seen a significant drop to 205.3, with 11 of the last 12 going Under the total.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

Trends by Seed Number 

#2 seeds have been the worst betting option of any seed – The record of #2 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2014 is 17-24 SU and 16-24-1 ATS (40%). The worst spot in this trend is after losses, 7-12-1 ATS in the last 20.
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at NYK)

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been gold in Game 3 and later of their respective series, going 12-12 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%), although Indiana was 2-3 SU and ATS last June.
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs SAS)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 106-67 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

* SAN ANTONIO is 21-22 SU and 16-27 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at NYK)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s game:

(505) SAN ANTONIO at (506) NEW YORK
* Underdogs are 7-5 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the Knicks-Spurs non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+2.5 at NYK)
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Knicks-Spurs series at Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and a ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and a ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 vs SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.

System Match (FADE): NEW YORK ML (-135 vs SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAS-NYK (o/u at 216.5)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+0.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-NYK UNDER 216.5 (-1.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+0.9)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-NYK UNDER 216.5 (-1.1)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Spurs vs. Knicks Game 4, Wednesday, June 10 appeared first on VSiN.