Game: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers

Date: October 23rd at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

For the first time this season on Thursday Night Football, we’ll see a non-divisional game—and not only that, but it’s also a non-conference matchup between the Vikings and Chargers. Both teams enter the short week following a loss, but each sit at .500 or better, with Minnesota at 3-3 and Los Angeles at 4-3. For the Vikings, things haven’t been quite where they’d hope offensively, ranking 20th in yards per game (318.7) and 15th in points per game (24.2). On the defensive side, the Vikings have been solid, ranking 9th in yards allowed per game (301.7) and 10th in points allowed per game (20.8). Minnesota’s pass defense had been among the strongest in the NFL, but we saw some cracks in that secondary last week against Philadelphia, so a strong bounce-back effort will be needed versus this Chargers receiving corps. As for the Chargers, they enter this game ranked 4th in yards per game (372.7) but just 20th in points per game (21.6). Defensively, they’ve been largely middle of the pack, sitting 13th in yards allowed per game (315.9) and 18th in points allowed per game (23.3). It’s no secret where the Chargers need to improve, as they rank 31st in red zone touchdown percentage, finding the end zone only 41.7% of the time. With both teams hovering around .500, this matchup is a crucial one for each side, and it has the makings of a close contest.

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Weather

Obviously, weather doesn’t play a huge role at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, due to its design, but wind can still be a small factor because of the openings on the sides. Winds aren’t expected to be too strong, averaging around 4 mph with gusts up to 12 mph.

Betting Overview

The spread in this one opened around 2.5 to 3 in favor of the Chargers, depending on the book, and has moved slightly more in L.A.’s favor, with some books staying at -3 and others moving to -3.5. The moneyline hasn’t shifted much either—you can now find the Vikings between +140 and +150, while the Chargers sit between -170 and -175. The total has remained steady at 44.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This is a fun coaching matchup between Jim Harbaugh and Kevin O’Connell—two offensive-minded coaches who love developing their quarterbacks. While Harbaugh has enjoyed more success over his overall coaching career, O’Connell and his staff have been very strong in recent years, particularly when adapting after key players go down.

DLs vs. OLs: Though the Chargers’ offensive line has been plagued by injuries, they’ve done a solid job holding things together. The Vikings’ offensive line has underperformed out of the gate, and while both defensive lines are fairly even, Minnesota’s front has been marginally more effective. Overall, you can give a slight advantage to the Chargers in the line-of-scrimmage battle, though this matchup should remain close.

QBs: Although J.J. McCarthy could, in theory, be healthy enough to go this Thursday night, all signs point to Carson Wentz getting another start given the short week. Regardless of who’s under center, Justin Herbert has been the far more effective quarterback, though there are still concerns about his turnovers.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: None of these areas are where the Chargers excel, especially with the injury to Omarion Hampton. The Vikings, meanwhile, are without running back Aaron Jones, but Jordan Mason has held his own, T.J. Hockenson has played well, and their linebacking corps is stronger than what the Chargers have.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This game should be exciting on the perimeter, as both secondaries have performed well for the most part, and both receiving corps are strong. Considering Minnesota’s secondary has been slightly better overall—and they have arguably the best receiver in the NFL—I lean slightly in favor of the Vikings here.

Betting Trends

Minnesota enters this game 3-3 ATS, and in their only true road game this season, they covered. They are also 2-0 ATS following a loss this season but are 0-1 so far as an underdog. Vikings games have leaned heavily toward the over, which has hit in five of their six games. The over has also cashed in both their only true road game and their lone game as an underdog.

The Chargers haven’t been a strong ATS team, sitting at 2-4-1, and they’ve yet to cover at home this season with an 0-2-1 record—all three of which came as favorites. The under has been slightly more favorable for Los Angeles, hitting in four of their seven games. The under has also come through in two of their three home contests.

Final Thoughts

While the Chargers haven’t looked particularly sharp over the past few weeks, they have a major advantage this week by not having to leave their home base. The Vikings, on the other hand, have been all over the map, and making yet another long trip this week doesn’t bode well for them. I like the Chargers to cover in this one, but I’m staying away from the total.