As I wrote in my “Tuley’s Takes” column on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs, we view the Kentucky Derby as a two-event here in the home office just like the Breeders’ Cup.

Of course, we all love to say we had the Kentucky Derby winner to have bragging rights all year (and beyond), but I’m just as happy as long as I end up making a profit over the two days. This column will focus on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby (expanding on my early-week picks and comments in the VSiN Derby Betting Guide, which I hope everyone enjoyed) as well as the undercard as there’s always value to be found on the cards this weekend with so much public money in the pools (casual horseplayers that only play the biggest days of the year, people playing their favorite names or numbers, etc.). The key is finding the horses that the masses overlook and go off at higher odds than they deserve, though they still have to win – or come in right order with our exotic wagers.

Happy Handicapping today and every day!

Knicks Go Overnight Stakes

Saturday, Churchill Downs Race 6, 1:53 p.m. ET

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This is a minor, ungraded $200,000 stakes race on the Derby Day card, but I think I found a live longshot. #5 Prince of Power (30-1) hasn’t raced since March after wintering at Turfway Park and its synthetic track, but I think he can return to the dirt track at Churchill and possibly steal this race wire to wire. The big concern is the 3-1 favorite, #2 Dragoon Guard, who is the only other horse that should challenge him for the lead, and hopefully they don’t compromise each other’s chances. In case they run off and lead the whole way, I’ll also do an Exacta Box with Dragoon Guard (and hopefully Prince of Power wins, but at least we’ll have a saver if the favorite beats just him).

Tuley’s Take: #5 Prince of Power to Win and Place, plus Exacta Box on 2-5 with favorite #2 Dragoon Guard.

Grade 2 Churchill Downs Turf Mile Stakes

Saturday, Churchill Downs Race 7, 2:38 p.m. ET

This turf race is pretty wide open with #2 Sweet Rebecca the 5-2 morning-line favorite but has thrown in clunkers before. There shouldn’t be a brutal pace set with no real rabbits in there, but I’m looking for a closer and love #6 Vina Arana at 20-1. She has only two career wins, but her last one was in November over this same turf course at Churchill at 7-1. Now, I would take her at single digits against this graded-stakes field or even 10-1, but 20-1 (or as low as 15-1) is fair value. She should be flying late under regular jockey Adam Beschizza.

Tuley’s Take: #6 Vina Arana to Win and Place.

Grade 2 Pat Day Mile Stakes

Saturday, Churchill Downs Race 8, 3:23 p.m. ET

I had my eye on Great White at 12-1, but unfortunately, he drew into the Derby with the scratch of Silent Tactic. Like this race’s namesake (Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day), most of these 3-year-olds will be gunning for the early lead, so I’m landing on another closer in #4 Secured Freedom (20-1). Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez (unlike other sports, horse racing allows current athletes to be inducted in the Hall of Fame) should be able to take this grandson of Into Mischief off the pace, and hopefully he fires down the stretch like he did in his maiden win last December and unlike his runs in the Robert B. Lewis and San Felipe prep races. At 20-1, it’s worth the flier. The favorite, #2 Trouble Calling

Tuley’s Take: #4 Secured Freedom to Win and Place, plus Exacta Box on 2-4 with #2 Trouble Calling.

Grade 1 American Turf Stakes

Saturday, Churchill Downs Race 9, 4:06 p.m. ET

Here’s another turf race, and I like another under-the-radar longshot closer in #6 Black Hornet (20-1). It took this 3-year-old five races to break his maiden in a turf race at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. He followed that up with a turf win in an ungraded stakes race. Trainer Brendan Walsh then ran him in the Grade 3 JR Steaks on the synthetic track at Turfway Park and Black Hornet finished a dismal eighth. However, I think that’s why we’re getting such a good price, as everyone sees that poor effort last time out, but I’m expecting a return to form with the return to turf.

Tuley’s Take: #6 Black Hornet to Win and Place.

Grade 10 Churchill Downs Stakes

Saturday, Churchill Downs Race 10, 4:50 p.m. ET

#5 Disruptor (8-1) isn’t as big of a price as most of my other picks, but looks like the value of the race just like when I won with Kathynmarissa at 3-1 in the Grade 3 Modesty on Friday in my “Tuley’s Takes” column on Kentucky Oaks Day after she was 8-1 on the morning line. Disruptor is from the owner Mike Repole/trainer Todd Pletcher team that has the Oaks and Derby favorites this weekend, but they could sneak in a win here in this 7-furlong race. Disruptor will definitely be stalking the early pace, and he’s won at this distance twice already with a maiden win at Gulfstream and an optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs. He also won his last race at a mile and a sixteenth in the Grade 3 Challenger at Tampa but should relish the return to seven panels. My only fear is that he’ll be bet down due to the connections.

Tuley’s Take: #5 Disruptor to Win and Place at 5-1 or higher,

Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

Saturday, Churchill Downs Race 12, 6:57 p.m. ET

As I wrote in the VSiN Derby Betting Guide, this year’s Run for the Roses is pretty wide-open as there’s no superhorse. Granted, there are several top contenders like the 4-1 morning-line favorite Renegade, who drew the dreaded No. 1 post (more on that in my main column), Further Ado, Commandment, Chief Wallbee, The Puma, So Happy and Emerging Market. Maybe one of them will win the Derby and be a threat to sweep the Triple Crown (but I wouldn’t bet on it at 11-1).

The task here is to find the Best Bets in the Kentucky Derby on the First Saturday in May. My top value play is on #17 Six Speed at 50-1 on the morning line and could go off higher as his fixed odds at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas were 80-1 as of Monday afternoon (and I bet him them at that price) and still there as of this update late Friday afternoon. 

Six Speed is the expected front-runner in a 20-horse field that doesn’t have any other rabbit to put him on a suicidal pace. The Derby isn’t usually won wire to wire, but it does happen, as I had War Emblem in 2002, though I didn’t have the favored American Pharoah and Justify in 2015 and 2018, or Authentic in 2020. You can’t win the race if you’re not in the lead at some point, so I’ll take my chances on no one being able to run down Six Speed (traffic jams behind the front-runner always helps and that’s always a possibility with such a large field).

I usually don’t condone betting more than one horse to Win in a race, but the exception is a 20-horse field like the Derby as the odds justify it. #10 Wonder Dean has my eye at 30-1 as he ran down Six Speed in the UAE Derby in Dubai, so I have to respect that. I’m not betting these all to Win, but I’ll also be monitoring the tote board for #8 So Happy (15-1), winner of the Santa Anita Derby and #14 Potente (20-1), runner-up to So Happy and trained by Bob Baffert.

If you’re betting the Derby, you have to take a shot with the exotics, as we’ve seen life-changing money over the years due to the massive field size and all those betting combinations jacking up the payoffs. In the VSiN Betting Guide, I also listed several other horses I like to fill out my exotic wagers – #2 Albus (30-1), #6 Commandment (6-1), #9 The Puma (10-1), #11 Incredibot (20-1), #12 Chief Wallabee (8-1) and #18 Further Ado (6-1) – but I also said I would narrow down my top choices, so for my superfecta box (top four finishers in any order), I’ll officially go with 1, 8, 10, 11, 14 and of course my 17. I basically need four of those six to fill out the superfecta.

Tuley’s Take: #17 Six Speed (17-1) to Win and Place, plus #10 Wonder Dean to Win and Place. In addition, give me Exacta and Trifectas Boxes with 1-8-10-14-17 and the aforementioned Superfecta with 1-8-10-11-14-17 to really try to blow up the tote board.

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