Mirra Andreeva vs. Marta Kostyuk Pick: Mutua Madrid Open odds, preview, and best bets

On Saturday, May 2, Mirra Andreeva and Marta Kostyuk fight for the title at the 2026 Mutua Madrid Open. Andreeva has already won two 1000-level titles in her career, so she knows what it take to get the job done on this stage. Meanwhile, Kostyuk might be older than her opponent, but this is the first 1000-level final of her career. That’ll make things interesting coming into this one, especially with Kostyuk being 1-0 in the head-to-head series. So, keep reading for thoughts on how this match will play out.

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Mirra Andreeva vs. Marta Kostyuk Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, May 1 at 5:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Andreeva -150, Kostyuk +123

Spread: Andreeva -2.5 Games (-115), Kostyuk +2.5 Games (-125)

Total: Over 21.5 Games (-125), Under 21.5 Games (-120)

How To Watch Mirra Andreeva vs. Marta Kostyuk

Where: Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain

When: Saturday, May 2

Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App

Mirra Andreeva vs. Marta Kostyuk Predictions

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Andreeva and Kostyuk met in Brisbane earlier in the year, with the latter earning a 7-6 (7), 6-3 victory. However, while Kostyuk is a good clay-court player, Andreeva’s results on the dirt are nuts. The 19-year-old hasn’t been around for very long, but she’s 45-13 on clay in her career.

These conditions are also really favorable for Andreeva. The Russian has a break percentage of 42.4% on clay, and that’s an outrageously high number. Well, in Madrid, Andreeva gets the benefit of returning on red clay, but she’s also serving in friendly conditions. With that in mind, I can see this being a strong event for her in her career. I think it all starts with a win in this match, giving Andreeva a third 1000-level title.

There’s no denying that Kostyuk is a very good player, and she’s in the midst of a career-best season. Kostyuk has won 81.0% of her matches, her hold percentage is a career-high 75.5%, and she’s breaking at an insane 48.0% clip. Kostyuk has, however, struggled against elite competition. While she did beat Jessica Pegula earlier in this tournament, she has two straight-set losses against Elena Rybakina and one straight-set loss against Aryna Sabalenka. Of course, those players present different challenges than Andreeva does. Rybakina and Sabalenka end points very quickly, plus they’re much better servers than Kostyuk is. But Andreeva will also be a very tough opponent.

Andreeva’s baseline defense just has the potential to frustrate Kostyuk. While Kostyuk is fully capable of playing high-quality defense, she is an aggressive baseliner and an impressive shotmaker. However, Kostyuk isn’t the greatest server in the world, so Andreeva should be very dangerous as a returner here. Also, Andreeva gets a ton of balls back in play, rendering quick-strike offense a little more difficult.

Kostyuk might have had success in Australia, but the Tennis Abstract Surface Speed in Brisbane is 1.19 when looking at data on the men’s side. In Madrid, the Surface Speed in 2025 was 0.78, which means it’s much slower despite the fact that this is viewed as fast clay.

I also do think that Andreeva’s first serve is a little more reliable than Kostyuk’s. I also believe the youngster’s backhand will be the best shot on the court here. On top of all of that, Andreeva seems to be in a better place mentally right now. Well, when she’s not getting down on herself and throwing fits on the court, she can be pretty damn close to unbeatable. That’s why I’m grabbing her at a reasonable price, which isn’t normally an option. And I don’t think it’s meaningless that Andreeva has won two of these, while this is the biggest match of Kostyuk’s career. There’s a different type of pressure in these matches. Can Kostyuk handle it?

Bet: Andreeva ML (-141 – 1.5 units)