Tuley’s Takes – Belmont Stakes Day on Saturday, June 6

As I wrote for Friday’s “Belmont at Saratoga” card (and five weeks ago in my Kentucky Derby Weekend columns and three weeks ago for Preakness Weekend), we view the Triple Crown races as two-day betting events here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

For the third straight year, the “Belmont Weekend” card is being run at Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York due to ongoing renovations at Belmont Park in Elmont, with Saturday’s featured Grade 1 Belmont Stakes being run at a mile and a quarter instead of the traditional mile and a half, but all of the above still applies.

Even though we didn’t have Derby winner Golden Tempo go for the Triple Crown, these are still classic races that will attract significant betting handle (and most of it square money), and we also get quality races on the undercards where value can be found.
Hopefully we had some winners on Friday, but let’s get to Saturday’s deeper “Belmont Day” card at Saratoga with seven graded stakes races.

Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes (turf)

Saturday, Saratoga Race 7, 2:47 p.m. ET

Chad Brown has owned this mile race for older fillies and mares, winning every running since 2017 except for 2022. He has the top two betting choices with favored #3 Segesta (7-5) and the lightly raced #2 Sandtrap (3-1).

I’m going to try to beat them with the #1 Classic Q (6-1), who should be the pacesetter again like she was in her most recent win in the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile on May 2. Hopefully, she can relax on the lead and have enough to hold off the closers again.
Actually, I’m more afraid of Brown’s Sandtrap as Segesta could possibly push Classic Q on the lead and compromise both their chances and set up Sandtrap’s closing kick. So, I’m going to use #3 Sandtrip with our top choice and turn Exactas into Trifectas by wheeling both with the rest of the field, so that “trifecta wheel” ticket would be 1,3 with 1,3 with ALL. And I’ll also use them first and third in case we get split: 1,3 with ALL with 1,3.

Tuley’s Takes: #1 Classic Q to Win and Place, plus Trifecta Wheel with #3 Sandtrip.

Grade 3 True North Stakes

Saturday, Saratoga Race 8, 3:25 p.m. ET

This next race is a one-turn sprint at 6.5 furlongs. I love the famous quote from Damon Runyon, with a twist from Ecclesiastes 9:11: “The race is not always to the swift … but that’s the way to bet.” And we’re backing the speed horse again with #1 Acoustic Ave. (30-1).

He is a real long shot in this nine-horse field, but this 6-year-old gelding has had a lot of success over the years with nine wins from 32 career starts and he’s also 3-for-6 at Saratoga, so I really think he’s being overlooked by the morning line maker.
Acoustic Ave. doesn’t fire every time and is only 1-for-5 this year, but he had 12 starts last year with three wins, four seconds and three thirds (10-of-12 in the money), so he still has plenty left in the tank if regular rider Jose Lezcano can give him a good trip. I certainly expect him to outrun his odds.

Tuley’s Take: #1 Acoustic Ave to Win and Place.

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Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes

Saturday, Saratoga Race 10, 4:52 p.m. ET

I’m skipping Race 9, the Grade 1 Jaipur, as no value play sticks out, but I can’t pass up the Woody Stephens for 3-year-olds (and basically those that weren’t good enough to stay on the Triple Crown Trail and running in Saturday’s Belmont).

In fact, we have my losing Derby colt, #3 Six Speed (10-1), in this race, and I’m going to back him again five weeks later, just like two years ago when Dornoch was my Derby value play. He finished 10th that day, but I picked him again five weeks later in the Belmont and he won at 17-1. This has happened many times in my horse handicapping career where I picked a longshot that I thought was ready to fire but just happened to be a race or two early. As I’ve always said, I’d rather be too early than too late (after a horse proves their ability and everyone jumps on the bandwagon).

Six Speed set the early fractions in the Derby but faded to 13th that day against a 19-horse field. This task should be easier with just a 9-horse field. He might get an early challenge from #7 Englishman, but as long as he’s not forced to go too fast too early I believe he’ll be fine to go wire to wire.

Tuley’s Take: #3 Six Speed to Win and Place.

Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap

Saturday, Saratoga Race 11, 5:32 p.m. ET

#1 Nysos (9-5) is a deserving favorite in the Met Mile with a 7-for-9 career record and the defending Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile champion, but no one knows for sure how he’ll be (especially first time out) after traveling for the Saudi Cup in February at King Abdulaziz Racetrack – where he finished second – and back for his first race in the states. Back him at your own risk.

I’m not going with a speed horse this time as it looks like #4 Saudi Crown and #5 Rated by Merit could set a suicidal pace and set up for a closer. My value play is #2 Vibe (15-1) as his typical running style is to sit just off the pace. Granted, he’s taking a big step up in class as this is his stakes debut, but I like these kinds of proven winners (he’s on a three-race win streak) as we don’t know how good they could be and we’re getting a fair price before they’ve proven themselves.

Tuley’s Take: #2 Vibe to Win and Place.

Grade 1 Belmont Stakes

Saturday, Saratoga Race 13, 7:04 p.m. ET

I’m skipping Race 12, the Grade 1 Manhattan on the turf, as all the horses I like are closers and it’s hard enough to separate them in a wide-open race, let alone if they can overcome the top contenders.

The Belmont looks like a much more handicappable race, especially as I’ve had a lot of success over the years, including that Dornoch win two years ago. Owners and trainers obviously aim for this race, as well as the Derby and Preakness, though the Belmont isn’t as unique as it usually is since it’s only run at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter as opposed to the Belmont’s typical mile and a half “test of champions” when run at Belmont Park.

Still, it’s a much-coveted race, especially for New York-based trainers. I wish Six Speed was sent to this race, but we can only handicap the fields that are put in front of us.

As stated in the intro, Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo is back after skipping the Preakness and all eyes will be on him. However, it’s interesting to note that he’s only the third betting choice at 9-2 (not atypical when a 23-1 longshot wins the Derby as not everyone is convinced it wasn’t a fluke) behind pre-Derby favorite #4 Renegade (2-1), who looked like the Derby winner mid-stretch but was passed by Golden Tempo, and #3 Chief Wallabee (3-1), who ran fourth in the Derby. We also have #7 Commandment (6-1), seventh in the Derby, and #8 Emerging Market (6-1), who ran 10th in the Derby after being the wiseguy horse.

My value play is #6 Growth Equity (12-1), trained by Chad Brown. He won the traditional “Belmont prep” race in the Grade 3 Peter Pan by sitting a few lengths off the pace and powering down the stretch for the two-length win. I realize he only had a maiden victory on his resume before that, but I still don’t think he’s being given enough credit and like Vibe in the prior race we don’t know Growth Equity’s ceiling. That’s fine by me if the morning-line maker and bettors dismiss him for his relative inexperience as I doubt I would be on him if he was single digits, but I’m hopeful that with so many other highly regarded contenders that we get the same odds on Saturday.

#4 Renegade is the danger, so let’s do another Trifecta Wheel with Growth Equity, so that’s 4,6, with 4,6 with ALL, and also split first and third on 4,6 with ALL with 4,6.

Tuley’s Takes: #6 Growth Equity to Win and Place, plus Trifecta Wheels with #4 Renegade.

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