There was just a single one-off game in the WNBA last night, in which the Toronto Tempo beat the Phoenix Mercury 98-90. Tonight, we’ve got a tripleheader featuring the Portland Fire traveling to Indiana to take on Caitlin Clark and the Fever; Paige Bueckers and Dallas travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Sky; and Seattle will host Connecticut in a battle of teams desperately trying to get one in the W column. Here are the TSI projections for tonight:

Indiana Fever (-13) vs Portland Fire, O/U 180.5

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Going through a cold streak in betting forces one to do a lot of self-evaluating; in doing so, and diving into the numbers to figure out what in the world has gone wrong lately (despite actually being more accurate than the closing line, on average), I noticed a trend in this young season. Road teams are 9-4 ATS in the last week, and more specifically, road dogs of 7.5+ are 5-0 ATS in that span. Again, small sample but definitely worth noting. I also found that when the spread is 7.5+, the Over is 6-1. I cannot emphasize enough, this is a small sample, but that is a really interesting couple of trends that fit this game. But of course, the number is the most important thing, and TSI projects Indiana -12.5 with a total of 180. Not a ton of value to be had, but there are multiple 13.5s out there, so given the projection and the trend, I’m backing Portland on the road here.

Bet: Fire +13.5 or better

Chicago Sky (+2.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 169.5

Chicago got some devastating news this week, as young star Rickea Jackson will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. While Chicago should have enough veteran guard presence to help steer the ship in Jackson’s absence, her scoring punch will definitely be missed. Dallas starts a 3-game road trip after handling the Mystics at home two nights ago. TSI projects Dallas -1 with a total of 168. Adding on to my trend finds, when the spread has been less than 7.5, the Under is 5-1, and this game fits that trend. Given the travel situation for Dallas and the Jackson injury for Chicago, I’d definitely lean Under, but I’m going to pass on an official play here.

Lean: Under 169.5

Seattle Storm (-2) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 167.5

Connecticut is 0-5 and Seattle is just 1-3, so both of these teams desperately want and need to win this game for their own morale’s sake. These teams are 13th (Seattle) and 14th (Connecticut) in TSI offensive rating, and 9th (Seattle) and 14th (Connecticut) in TSI defensive rating, so they’re both very bad on both ends of the floor so far. TSI projects Seattle -5.5 with a total of 168.5. Given home teams’ struggles to cover, I’m only going to make this a lean, but Seattle should win the game.

Lean: Storm -2

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